Validity of the FINDRISC as a prediction tool for diabetes in a contemporary Norwegian population: a 10-year follow-up of the HUNT study

Anne Jølle, Kristian Midthjell, Jostein Holmen, Sven Magnus Carlsen, Jaakko Tuomilehto, Johan Håkon Bjørngaard, Bjørn Olav Åsvold, Anne Jølle, Kristian Midthjell, Jostein Holmen, Sven Magnus Carlsen, Jaakko Tuomilehto, Johan Håkon Bjørngaard, Bjørn Olav Åsvold

Abstract

Objective: The Finnish Diabetes Risk Score (FINDRISC) is a recommended tool for type 2 diabetes prediction. There is a lack of studies examining the performance of the current 0-26 point FINDRISC scale. We examined the validity of FINDRISC in a contemporary Norwegian risk environment.

Research design and methods: We followed 47 804 participants without known diabetes and aged ≥20 years in the HUNT3 survey (2006-2008) by linkage to information on glucose-lowering drug dispensing in the Norwegian Prescription Database (2004-2016). We estimated the C-statistic, sensitivity and specificity of FINDRISC as predictor of incident diabetes, as indicated by incident use of glucose-lowering drugs. We estimated the 10-year cumulative diabetes incidence by categories of FINDRISC.

Results: The C-statistic (95% CI) of FINDRISC in predicting future diabetes was 0.77 (0.76 to 0.78). FINDRISC ≥15 (the conventional cut-off value) had a sensitivity of 38% and a specificity of 90%. The 10-year cumulative diabetes incidence (95% CI) was 4.0% (3.8% to 4.2%) in the entire study population, 13.5% (12.5% to 14.5%) for people with FINDRISC ≥15 and 2.8% (2.6% to 3.0%) for people with FINDRISC <15. Thus, FINDRISC ≥15 had a positive predictive value of 13.5% and a negative predictive value of 97.2% for diabetes within the next 10 years. To approach a similar sensitivity as in the study in which FINDRISC was developed, we would have to lower the cut-off value for elevated FINDRISC to ≥11. This would yield a sensitivity of 73%, specificity of 67%, positive predictive value of 7.7% and negative predictive value of 98.5%.

Conclusions: The validity of FINDRISC and the risk of diabetes among people with FINDRISC ≥15 is substantially lower in the contemporary Norwegian population than assumed in official guidelines. To identify ~3/4 of those developing diabetes within the next 10 years, we would have to lower the threshold for elevated FINDRISC to ≥11, which would label ~1/3 of the entire adult population as having an elevated FINDRISC necessitating a glycemia assessment.

Keywords: epidemiology; prediction and prevention.

Conflict of interest statement

Competing interests: None declared.

© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2019. Re-use permitted under CC BY. Published by BMJ.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Number of participants and the 10-year diabetes risk (with 95% CI) for each FINDRISC value among 47 804 participants of the HUNT3 survey.

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