Risk Factors for Mortality in 244 Older Adults With COVID-19 in Wuhan, China: A Retrospective Study

Abstract

Background/objectives: Previous studies have reported that older patients may experience worse outcome(s) after infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 than younger individuals. This study aimed to identify potential risk factors for mortality in older patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) on admission, which may help identify those with poor prognosis at an early stage.

Design: Retrospective case-control.

Setting: Fever ward of Sino-French New City Branch of Tongji Hospital, Wuhan, China.

Participants: Patients aged 60 years or older with COVID-19 (n = 244) were included, of whom 123 were discharged and 121 died in hospital.

Measurements: Data retrieved from electronic medical records regarding symptoms, signs, and laboratory findings on admission, and final outcomes of all older patients with COVID-19, were retrospectively reviewed. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to explore risk factors for death.

Results: Univariate analysis revealed that several clinical characteristics and laboratory variables were significantly different (ie, P < .05) between discharged and deceased patients. Multivariable logistic regression analysis revealed that lymphocyte (LYM) count (odds ratio [OR] = 0.009; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.001-0.138; P = .001) and older age (OR = 1.122; 95% CI = 1.007-1.249; P = .037) were independently associated with hospital mortality. White blood cell count was also an important risk factor (P = .052). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve in the logistic regression model was 0.913. Risk factors for in-hospital death were similar between older men and women.

Conclusion: Older age and lower LYM count on admission were associated with death in hospitalized COVID-19 patients. Stringent monitoring and early intervention are needed to reduce mortality in these patients. J Am Geriatr Soc 68:E19-E23, 2020.

Keywords: COVID-19; mortalityolder patientsrisk factors.

Conflict of interest statement

The authors have no conflicts.

© 2020 The American Geriatrics Society.

Figures

Figure 1

Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves for univariate and multivariate logistic regression models of risk factors. The purple curve is the ROC curve for the logistic regression model of age alone. The red curve is the ROC curve of the logistic regression model of lymphocyte (LYM) count alone. The blue curve is the ROC curve for the multivariable logistic regression model.