Cancer incidence in English children, adolescents and young people: past trends and projections to 2030

Francesca Pesola, Jacques Ferlay, Peter Sasieni, Francesca Pesola, Jacques Ferlay, Peter Sasieni

Abstract

Background: Estimating the future incidence of cancer is important to establish sufficient service provision, however, work in this area is limited for cancer in children, adolescents, and young adults (aged 0-24).

Methods: Age-period-cohort models were applied to cancer incidence rates for the period 1971-2013 in England. This allowed us to extrapolate past trends to 2030. We used the appropriate cancer classification developed for cancers in children and young adults, which are analysed as two separate groups to capture inherent differences.

Results: The data set consisted of 119 485 records (55% among 15+ years group). Overall, cancer rates have increased over time and are expected to continue to rise into the future. Of particular interest is the increase in rates of germ cell tumours (in males) and carcinomas (in females) in young adults, since their rates are projected to further increase over time.

Conclusions: The estimated future incidence rates provide a baseline for different cancer subtypes, which will allow policymakers to develop a contingency plan to deal with future demands.

Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Cancer subtypes. Cancer distributions among (A) children and (B) adolescents and young adults diagnosed between 1971 and 2013.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Age effect. Rate per million for (A) children and (B) teenagers and young adults.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Rates per million (European standard) for cancer incidence broken down by sex for children (A) and adolescents and young adults (B). Number of cancers (for all ages) are also presented by the black long-dash line.
Figure 4
Figure 4
Trends and projections by cancer subtype broken down by sex among children (continuous line ages 0–4, dotted line 5–9, and dashed line ages 10–14). Number of cancers (across all ages) are also presented by the black long-dash line.
Figure 5
Figure 5
Trends and projections by cancer subtype broken down by sex among teenagers and young adults (continuous line ages 15–19 and dotted line ages 20–24). Number of cancers (across all ages) are also presented by the black long-dash line.

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Source: PubMed

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