The global burden of injury: incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years and time trends from the Global Burden of Disease study 2013

Juanita A Haagsma, Nicholas Graetz, Ian Bolliger, Mohsen Naghavi, Hideki Higashi, Erin C Mullany, Semaw Ferede Abera, Jerry Puthenpurakal Abraham, Koranteng Adofo, Ubai Alsharif, Emmanuel A Ameh, Walid Ammar, Carl Abelardo T Antonio, Lope H Barrero, Tolesa Bekele, Dipan Bose, Alexandra Brazinova, Ferrán Catalá-López, Lalit Dandona, Rakhi Dandona, Paul I Dargan, Diego De Leo, Louisa Degenhardt, Sarah Derrett, Samath D Dharmaratne, Tim R Driscoll, Leilei Duan, Sergey Petrovich Ermakov, Farshad Farzadfar, Valery L Feigin, Richard C Franklin, Belinda Gabbe, Richard A Gosselin, Nima Hafezi-Nejad, Randah Ribhi Hamadeh, Martha Hijar, Guoqing Hu, Sudha P Jayaraman, Guohong Jiang, Yousef Saleh Khader, Ejaz Ahmad Khan, Sanjay Krishnaswami, Chanda Kulkarni, Fiona E Lecky, Ricky Leung, Raimundas Lunevicius, Ronan Anthony Lyons, Marek Majdan, Amanda J Mason-Jones, Richard Matzopoulos, Peter A Meaney, Wubegzier Mekonnen, Ted R Miller, Charles N Mock, Rosana E Norman, Ricardo Orozco, Suzanne Polinder, Farshad Pourmalek, Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar, Amany Refaat, David Rojas-Rueda, Nobhojit Roy, David C Schwebel, Amira Shaheen, Saeid Shahraz, Vegard Skirbekk, Kjetil Søreide, Sergey Soshnikov, Dan J Stein, Bryan L Sykes, Karen M Tabb, Awoke Misganaw Temesgen, Eric Yeboah Tenkorang, Alice M Theadom, Bach Xuan Tran, Tommi J Vasankari, Monica S Vavilala, Vasiliy Victorovich Vlassov, Solomon Meseret Woldeyohannes, Paul Yip, Naohiro Yonemoto, Mustafa Z Younis, Chuanhua Yu, Christopher J L Murray, Theo Vos, Juanita A Haagsma, Nicholas Graetz, Ian Bolliger, Mohsen Naghavi, Hideki Higashi, Erin C Mullany, Semaw Ferede Abera, Jerry Puthenpurakal Abraham, Koranteng Adofo, Ubai Alsharif, Emmanuel A Ameh, Walid Ammar, Carl Abelardo T Antonio, Lope H Barrero, Tolesa Bekele, Dipan Bose, Alexandra Brazinova, Ferrán Catalá-López, Lalit Dandona, Rakhi Dandona, Paul I Dargan, Diego De Leo, Louisa Degenhardt, Sarah Derrett, Samath D Dharmaratne, Tim R Driscoll, Leilei Duan, Sergey Petrovich Ermakov, Farshad Farzadfar, Valery L Feigin, Richard C Franklin, Belinda Gabbe, Richard A Gosselin, Nima Hafezi-Nejad, Randah Ribhi Hamadeh, Martha Hijar, Guoqing Hu, Sudha P Jayaraman, Guohong Jiang, Yousef Saleh Khader, Ejaz Ahmad Khan, Sanjay Krishnaswami, Chanda Kulkarni, Fiona E Lecky, Ricky Leung, Raimundas Lunevicius, Ronan Anthony Lyons, Marek Majdan, Amanda J Mason-Jones, Richard Matzopoulos, Peter A Meaney, Wubegzier Mekonnen, Ted R Miller, Charles N Mock, Rosana E Norman, Ricardo Orozco, Suzanne Polinder, Farshad Pourmalek, Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar, Amany Refaat, David Rojas-Rueda, Nobhojit Roy, David C Schwebel, Amira Shaheen, Saeid Shahraz, Vegard Skirbekk, Kjetil Søreide, Sergey Soshnikov, Dan J Stein, Bryan L Sykes, Karen M Tabb, Awoke Misganaw Temesgen, Eric Yeboah Tenkorang, Alice M Theadom, Bach Xuan Tran, Tommi J Vasankari, Monica S Vavilala, Vasiliy Victorovich Vlassov, Solomon Meseret Woldeyohannes, Paul Yip, Naohiro Yonemoto, Mustafa Z Younis, Chuanhua Yu, Christopher J L Murray, Theo Vos

Abstract

Background: The Global Burden of Diseases (GBD), Injuries, and Risk Factors study used the disability-adjusted life year (DALY) to quantify the burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors. This paper provides an overview of injury estimates from the 2013 update of GBD, with detailed information on incidence, mortality, DALYs and rates of change from 1990 to 2013 for 26 causes of injury, globally, by region and by country.

Methods: Injury mortality was estimated using the extensive GBD mortality database, corrections for ill-defined cause of death and the cause of death ensemble modelling tool. Morbidity estimation was based on inpatient and outpatient data sets, 26 cause-of-injury and 47 nature-of-injury categories, and seven follow-up studies with patient-reported long-term outcome measures.

Results: In 2013, 973 million (uncertainty interval (UI) 942 to 993) people sustained injuries that warranted some type of healthcare and 4.8 million (UI 4.5 to 5.1) people died from injuries. Between 1990 and 2013 the global age-standardised injury DALY rate decreased by 31% (UI 26% to 35%). The rate of decline in DALY rates was significant for 22 cause-of-injury categories, including all the major injuries.

Conclusions: Injuries continue to be an important cause of morbidity and mortality in the developed and developing world. The decline in rates for almost all injuries is so prominent that it warrants a general statement that the world is becoming a safer place to live in. However, the patterns vary widely by cause, age, sex, region and time and there are still large improvements that need to be made.

Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Flowchart of Global Burden of Disease Injury years lived with disability (YLD) estimation.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rates by cause of injury, sex and region, ages 0–14 years. For the purposes of these plots, all non-road unintentional injuries have been collapsed to “All Other Unintent” (other transport injury, animal contact categories, foreign body categories, and adverse effects of medical treatment).
Figure 3
Figure 3
Disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rates by cause of injury, sex and region, ages 15–49 years of injury, sex and region.
Figure 4
Figure 4
Disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rates by cause of injury, sex and region, ages 50–79 years of injury, sex and region.
Figure 5
Figure 5
Disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rates by cause of injury, sex and region, ages 80 years and above of injury, sex and region.
Figure 6
Figure 6
Percent change in age-standardised all-injury disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rates 1990–2013.
Figure 7
Figure 7
Percent change in age-standardised road injury disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rates 1990–2013.
Figure 8
Figure 8
Percent change in age-standardised falls disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rates 1990–2013.
Figure 9
Figure 9
Percent change in age-standardised fire injury disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rates 1990–2013.
Figure 10
Figure 10
Percent change in age-standardised poisoning injury disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rates 1990–2013.
Figure 11
Figure 11
Percent change in age-standardised interpersonal violence disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rates 1990–2013.
Figure 12
Figure 12
Percent change in age-standardised self-harm disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rates 1990–2013.

References

    1. Gordon JE. The epidemiology of accidents. Am J Public Health Nations Health 1949;39:504–15. 10.2105/AJPH.39.4.504
    1. Bull JP. Measures of severity of injury. Injury 1978;9:184–7. 10.1016/0020-1383(78)90004-9
    1. Worldbank. World development report 1993: investing in health. New York: Oxford University Press, 1993.
    1. Murray CJ. Quantifying the burden of disease: the technical basis for disability-adjusted life years. Bull World Health Organ 1994;72:429–45.
    1. Murray CJL, Lopez AD, Mathers CDE. Summary measures of population health: concepts, ethics, measurement and applications. Geneva: World Health Organization, 2002.
    1. Field MJ, Gold MR. Summarising population health: directions for the development and application of population health metrics. Washington DC: Institute of Medicine: National Academy Press, 1998.
    1. Murray CJL, Lopez AD. The global burden of disease: a comprehensive assessment of mortality and disability from diseases, injuries and risk factors in 1990 and projected to 2020. Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1996.
    1. The global burden of disease: 2004 update. Geneva: World Health Organization, 2008.
    1. Peden M, McGee K, Sharma G. The injury chart book: a graphical overview of the global burden of injuries. Geneva: World Health Organization, 2002.
    1. Global health risks: mortality and burden of disease attributable to selected major risks. Geneva: World Health Organization, 2009.
    1. Murray CJ, Vos T, Lozano R, et al. . Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 291 diseases and injuries in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010. Lancet 2013;380:2197–223. 10.1016/S0140-6736(12)61689-4
    1. Vos T, Flaxman AD, Naghavi M, et al. . Years lived with disability (YLDs) for 1160 sequelae of 289 diseases and injuries 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010. Lancet 2012;380:2163–96. 10.1016/S0140-6736(12)61729-2
    1. Lozano R, Naghavi M, Foreman K, et al. . Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010. Lancet 2012;380:2095–128. 10.1016/S0140-6736(12)61728-0
    1. Salomon JA, Vos T, Hogan DR, et al. . Common values in assessing health outcomes from disease and injury: disability weights measurement study for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010. Lancet 2012;380:2129–43. 10.1016/S0140-6736(12)61680-8
    1. GBD 2013 Mortality and Causes of Death Collaborators. Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013. Lancet 2015;385:117–71. 10.1016/S0140-6736(14)61682-2
    1. Polinder S, Haagsma JA, Toet H, et al. . Epidemiological burden of minor, major and fatal trauma in a national injury pyramid. Br J Surg 2012;99(Suppl 1):114–21. 10.1002/bjs.7708
    1. Global status report on road safety: supporting a decade of action. Geneva: World Health Organization, 2013.
    1. Ameratunga S, Hijar M, Norton R. Road-traffic injuries: confronting disparities to address a global-health problem. Lancet 2006;367:1533–40. 10.1016/S0140-6736(06)68654-6
    1. Chandran A, Sousa TR, Guo Y, et al. . Vida No Transito Evaluation Team. Road traffic deaths in Brazil: rising trends in pedestrian and motorcycle occupant deaths. Traffic Inj Prev 2012;13(Suppl 1):11–16. 10.1080/15389588.2011.633289
    1. Naghavi M, Shahraz S, Bhalla K, et al. . Adverse health outcomes of road traffic injuries in Iran after rapid motorization. Arch Iran Med 2009;12:284–94.
    1. Luoma J, Sivak M. Road safety management in Brazil, Russia, India and China. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute, 2012.
    1. Hyder AA, Vecino-Ortiz AI. BRICS: opportunities to improve road safety. Bull World Health Organ 2014;92:423–8. 10.2471/BLT.13.132613
    1. Bishai D, Quresh A, James P, et al. . National road casualties and economic development. Health Econ 2006;15:65–81. 10.1002/hec.1020
    1. Global status report on road safety survey: time for action. Geneva: World Health Organization, 2009.
    1. Cummings P, Rivara FP, Olson CM, et al. . Changes in traffic crash mortality rates attributed to use of alcohol, or lack of a seat belt, air bag, motorcycle helmet, or bicycle helmet, United States, 1982–2001. Inj Prev 2006;12:148–54. 10.1136/ip.2005.010975
    1. UNODC global study on Homicide 2013. United Nations Publication, 2014.
    1. Global status report on violence prevention 2014. World Health Organization, 2014.
    1. Injuries in the European Union, Report on injury statistics 2008–2010. Amsterdam: EuroSafe, 2013.
    1. Murray J, Cerqueira DR, Kahn T. Crime and violence in Brazil: systematic review of time trends, prevalence rates and risk factors. Aggress Violent Behav 2013;18:471–83. 10.1016/j.avb.2013.07.003
    1. Krug EG, Dahlberg LL, Mercy JA, et al. . World report on violence and health. World Health Organization, 2002.
    1. Briceno-Leon R. [Understanding homicides in Latin America: poverty or institutionalization?]. Cien Saude Colet 2012;17:3159–70. 10.1590/S1413-81232012001200002
    1. Briceno-Leon R, Villaveces A, Concha-Eastman A. Understanding the uneven distribution of the incidence of homicide in Latin America. Int J Epidemiol 2008;37:751–7. 10.1093/ije/dyn153
    1. Norman R, Schneider M, Bradshaw D, et al. . Interpersonal violence: an important risk factor for disease and injury in South Africa. Popul Health Metr 2010;8:32 10.1186/1478-7954-8-32
    1. Pinker S. The better angels of our nature. New York: Viking, 2011.
    1. Shoemaker R. Male honour and the decline of public violence in eighteenth-century London. Soc Hist 2010;26:190–208. 10.1080/03071020110041352
    1. Preventing suicide: a global imperative. World Health Organization, 2014.
    1. Bertolote JM, Fleischmann A. Suicide and psychiatric diagnosis: a worldwide perspective. World Psychiatry 2002;1:181–5.
    1. Chang SS, Stuckler D, Yip P, et al. . Impact of 2008 global economic crisis on suicide: time trend study in 54 countries. BMJ 2013;347:f5239 10.1136/bmj.f5239
    1. Nordt C, Warnke I, Seifritz E, et al. . Modelling suicide and unemployment: a longitudinal analysis covering 63 countries, 2000–11. Lancet Psychiatry 2015;2:239–45.
    1. Wang CW, Chan CL, Yip PS. Suicide rates in China from 2002 to 2011: an update. Soc Psychiatry Psychiatr Epidemiol 2014;49:929–41. 10.1007/s00127-013-0789-5
    1. Badiye A, Kapoor N, Ahmed S. An empirical analysis of suicidal death trends in India: a 5 year retrospective study. J Forensic Leg Med 2014;27:29–34. 10.1016/j.jflm.2014.07.007
    1. Lacina B, Gleditsch NP. Monitoring trends in global combat: a new dataset of battle deaths. Eur J Popul 2005;21:145–66. 10.1007/s10680-005-6851-6
    1. Human Security Report Project. Human security report 2013: the decline in global violence: evidence, explanation, and contestation. Vancouver, 2013.
    1. Mahapatra P, Shibuya K, Lopez AD, et al. . Civil registration systems and vital statistics: successes and missed opportunities. Lancet 2007;370:1653–63. 10.1016/S0140-6736(07)61308-7
    1. Joubert J, Rao C, Bradshaw D, et al. . Characteristics, availability and uses of vital registration and other mortality data sources in post-democracy South Africa. Glob Health Action 2012;5:1–19. 10.3402/gha.v5i0.19263
    1. Obermeyer Z, Rajaratnam JK, Park CH, et al. . Measuring adult mortality using sibling survival: a new analytical method and new results for 44 countries, 1974–2006. PLoS Med 2010;7:e1000260 10.1371/journal.pmed.1000260
    1. Setel PW, Macfarlane SB, Szreter S, et al. . A scandal of invisibility: making everyone count by counting everyone. Lancet 2007;370:1569–77. 10.1016/S0140-6736(07)61307-5
    1. Mathers CD, Salomon JA, Ezzati M, et al. . Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses for burden of disease and risk factor estimates. In: Lopez AD, Mathers CD, Ezzati M, et al., eds Global burden of disease and risk factors. Oxford press, New York, 2006:399–426.
    1. Byass P, de Courten M, Graham WJ, et al. . Reflections on the global burden of disease 2010 estimates. PLoS Med 2013;10:e1001477 10.1371/journal.pmed.1001477
    1. Mock C, Juillard C, Brundage S, et al. . Guidelines for trauma quality improvement programmes. Geneva: World Health Organization, 2008.
    1. American College of Surgeons. National Trauma Data Bank. Chicago, IL. 2015. . Accessed February 2015.
    1. Panamerican Trauma Society. Panamerican Trauma Registry. . Accessed February 2015.
    1. International Institute for Strategic Studies. Armed Conflict Database. London, UK: International Institute for Strategic Studies.
    1. Gleditsch NP, Wallensteen P, Eriksson M, et al. . Armed conflict 1946–2001: a new dataset. J Peace Res 2002;39:615–37. 10.1177/0022343302039005007
    1. Obermeyer Z, Murray CJ, Gakidou E. Fifty years of violent war deaths from Vietnam to Bosnia: analysis of data from the world health survey programme. BMJ 2008;336:1482–6. 10.1136/bmj.a137
    1. Sullivan PW, Ghushchyan V. Mapping the EQ-5D index from the SF-12: US general population preferences in a nationally representative sample. Med Decis Making 2006;26:401–9. 10.1177/0272989X06290496
    1. Polinder S, Haagsma JA, Belt E, et al. . A systematic review of studies measuring health-related quality of life of general injury populations. BMC Public Health 2010;10:783 10.1186/1471-2458-10-783

Source: PubMed

Sponsorer och medarbetare

Medicinska tillstånd

Läkemedelsinterventioner

3
Prenumerera