Patient Prognostic Score and Associations With Survival Improvement Offered by Radiotherapy After Breast-Conserving Surgery for Ductal Carcinoma In Situ: A Population-Based Longitudinal Cohort Study

Abstract

Purpose: Radiotherapy (RT) after breast-conserving surgery (BCS) is a standard treatment option for the management of ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS). We sought to determine the survival benefit of RT after BCS on the basis of risk factors for local recurrence.

Patients and methods: A retrospective longitudinal cohort study was performed to identify patients with DCIS diagnosed between 1988 and 2007 and treated with BCS by using SEER data. Patients were divided into the following two groups: BCS+RT (RT group) and BCS alone (non-RT group). We used a patient prognostic scoring model to stratify patients on the basis of risk of local recurrence. We performed a Cox proportional hazards model with propensity score weighting to evaluate breast cancer mortality between the two groups.

Results: We identified 32,144 eligible patients with DCIS, 20,329 (63%) in the RT group and 11,815 (37%) in the non-RT group. Overall, 304 breast cancer-specific deaths occurred over a median follow-up of 96 months, with a cumulative incidence of breast cancer mortality at 10 years in the weighted cohorts of 1.8% (RT group) and 2.1% (non-RT group; hazard ratio, 0.73; 95% CI, 0.62 to 0.88). Significant improvements in survival in the RT group compared with the non-RT group were only observed in patients with higher nuclear grade, younger age, and larger tumor size. The magnitude of the survival difference with RT was significantly correlated with prognostic score (P < .001).

Conclusion: In this population-based study, the patient prognostic score for DCIS is associated with the magnitude of improvement in survival offered by RT after BCS, suggesting that decisions for RT could be tailored on the basis of patient factors, tumor biology, and the prognostic score.

Conflict of interest statement

Authors' disclosures of potential conflicts of interest are found in the article online at www.jco.org. Author contributions are found at the end of this article.

© 2016 by American Society of Clinical Oncology.

Figures

Fig 1.

Patient prognostic score: risk stratification. Modified from Smith et al.

Fig 2.

Hazard ratio comparing breast cancer mortality (BCM) between radiotherapy (RT) group and non-RT group according to prognostic score. (*) Weighted by inverse propensity score. (†) Multivariate analysis adjusted by age of patients, year of diagnosis, race, tumor size, nuclear grade, and marital status. NA, not applicable.

Fig 3.

Hazard ratio comparing overall mortality (OM) between radiotherapy (RT) group and non-RT group according to prognostic score. (*) Weighted by inverse propensity score. (†) Multivariate analysis adjusted by age of patients, year of diagnosis, race, tumor size, nuclear grade, and marital status. NA, not applicable.

Fig A1.

Flow diagram of patient population. CS, collaborative stage; DCIS, ductal carcinoma in situ.