Increased food energy supply as a major driver of the obesity epidemic: a global analysis

Stefanie Vandevijvere, Carson C Chow, Kevin D Hall, Elaine Umali, Boyd A Swinburn, Stefanie Vandevijvere, Carson C Chow, Kevin D Hall, Elaine Umali, Boyd A Swinburn

Abstract

Objective: We investigated associations between changes in national food energy supply and in average population body weight.

Methods: We collected data from 24 high-, 27 middle- and 18 low-income countries on the average measured body weight from global databases, national health and nutrition survey reports and peer-reviewed papers. Changes in average body weight were derived from study pairs that were at least four years apart (various years, 1971-2010). Selected study pairs were considered to be representative of an adolescent or adult population, at national or subnational scale. Food energy supply data were retrieved from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations food balance sheets. We estimated the population energy requirements at survey time points using Institute of Medicine equations. Finally, we estimated the change in energy intake that could theoretically account for the observed change in average body weight using an experimentally-validated model.

Findings: In 56 countries, an increase in food energy supply was associated with an increase in average body weight. In 45 countries, the increase in food energy supply was higher than the model-predicted increase in energy intake. The association between change in food energy supply and change in body weight was statistically significant overall and for high-income countries (P < 0.001).

Conclusion: The findings suggest that increases in food energy supply are sufficient to explain increases in average population body weight, especially in high-income countries. Policy efforts are needed to improve the healthiness of food systems and environments to reduce global obesity.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Change in food energy supply and change in average body weight for 69 countries, 1971–2010
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Change in food energy supply and change in average body weight for 24 high-income countries, 1971–2009
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
Change in food energy supply and change in average body weight for 15 upper-middle-income countries, 1980–2009
Fig. 4
Fig. 4
Change in food energy supply and change in average body weight for 12 lower-middle-income countries, 1983–2009
Fig. 5
Fig. 5
Change in food energy supply and change in average body weight for 18 low-income countries, 1983–2009

References

    1. Ng M, Fleming T, Robinson M, Thomson B, Graetz N, Margono C, et al. Global, regional, and national prevalence of overweight and obesity in children and adults during 1980–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013. Lancet. 2014. August 30;384(9945):766–81. 10.1016/S0140-6736(14)60460-8
    1. Gortmaker SL, Swinburn BA, Levy D, Carter R, Mabry PL, Finegood DT, et al. Changing the future of obesity: science, policy, and action. Lancet. 2011. August 27;378(9793):838–47. 10.1016/S0140-6736(11)60815-5
    1. Global action plan for the prevention and control of noncommunicable diseases 2013-2020. Geneva: World Health Organization; 2013.
    1. James WP. The fundamental drivers of the obesity epidemic. Obes Rev. 2008. March;9(s1) Suppl 1:6–13. 10.1111/j.1467-789X.2007.00432.x
    1. Swinburn BA, Sacks G, Hall KD, McPherson K, Finegood DT, Moodie ML, et al. The global obesity pandemic: shaped by global drivers and local environments. Lancet. 2011. August 27;378(9793):804–14. 10.1016/S0140-6736(11)60813-1
    1. Frank LD, Andresen MA, Schmid TL. Obesity relationships with community design, physical activity, and time spent in cars. Am J Prev Med. 2004. August;27(2):87–96. 10.1016/j.amepre.2004.04.011
    1. Bleich SN, Ku R, Wang YC. Relative contribution of energy intake and energy expenditure to childhood obesity: a review of the literature and directions for future research. Int J Obes. 2011. January;35(1):1–15. 10.1038/ijo.2010.252
    1. McCormack GR, Virk JS. Driving towards obesity: a systematized literature review on the association between motor vehicle travel time and distance and weight status in adults. Prev Med. 2014. September;66:49–55. 10.1016/j.ypmed.2014.06.002
    1. Hall KD, Sacks G, Chandramohan D, Chow CC, Wang YC, Gortmaker SL, et al. Quantification of the effect of energy imbalance on body weight. Lancet. 2011. August 27;378(9793):826–37. 10.1016/S0140-6736(11)60812-X
    1. Swinburn B, Sacks G, Ravussin E. Increased food energy supply is more than sufficient to explain the US epidemic of obesity. Am J Clin Nutr. 2009. December;90(6):1453–6. 10.3945/ajcn.2009.28595
    1. Scarborough P, Burg MR, Foster C, Swinburn B, Sacks G, Rayner M, et al. Increased energy intake entirely accounts for increase in body weight in women but not in men in the UK between 1986 and 2000. Br J Nutr. 2011. May;105(9):1399–404. 10.1017/S0007114510005076
    1. Hall KD, Guo J, Dore M, Chow CC. The progressive increase of food waste in America and its environmental impact. PLoS ONE. 2009;4(11):e7940. 10.1371/journal.pone.0007940
    1. FAOSTAT [Internet]. Rome: Statistics Division, Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations; 2012. Available from: [cited 2013 Feb 16].
    1. WHO global infobase [Internet]. Geneva: World Health Organization; 2011. Available from: [cited 2015 Feb 18].
    1. Global database on body mass index [Internet]. Geneva: World Health Organization; 2010. Available from: [cited 2015 Feb 18].
    1. Global prevalence of adult overweight and obesity by region. London International Association for the Study of Obesity; 2013. Available from: [cited 2015 Mar 16].
    1. OECD health data [Internet]. Paris: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development; 2012. Available from: [cited 2013 Feb 13].
    1. Tunstall-Pedoe H, editor. MONICA monograph and multimedia sourcebook: World’s largest study on heart disease, stroke, risk factors, and population trends 1979-2002. Geneva: World Health Organization; 2003.
    1. STEPS country reports [Internet]. Geneva: World Health Organization; 2013. Available from: [cited 2013 Feb 13].
    1. The DHS Program Demographic and Health Surveys. Publications by country [Internet]. Rockville: ICF International; 2013. Available from: [cited 2015 April 13].
    1. World Population prospects: the 2012 revision [Internet]. New York: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs; 2012. Available from: [cited 2014 Feb 15].
    1. Institute of Medicine of the National Academies. Dietary reference intakes for energy, carbohydrate, fiber, fat, fatty acids, cholesterol, protein and amino acids. Washington: The National Academies Press; 2005.
    1. Dwyer-Lindgren L, Freedman G, Engell RE, Fleming TD, Lim SS, Murray CJ, et al. Prevalence of physical activity and obesity in US counties, 2001–2011: a road map for action. Popul Health Metr. 2013;11(1):7. 10.1186/1478-7954-11-7
    1. Bell AC, Ge K, Popkin BM. The road to obesity or the path to prevention: motorized transportation and obesity in China. Obes Res. 2002. April;10(4):277–83. 10.1038/oby.2002.38
    1. Ng SW, Norton EC, Guilkey DK, Popkin B. Estimation of a dynamic model of weight. [Working paper 15864]. Cambridge: National Bureau of Economic Research; 2010. 10.3386/w15864
    1. McAllister EJ, Dhurandhar NV, Keith SW, Aronne LJ, Barger J, Baskin M, et al. Ten putative contributors to the obesity epidemic. Crit Rev Food Sci Nutr. 2009. November;49(10):868–913. 10.1080/10408390903372599
    1. Swinburn BA, Sacks G, Lo SK, Westerterp KR, Rush EC, Rosenbaum M, et al. Estimating the changes in energy flux that characterize the rise in obesity prevalence. Am J Clin Nutr. 2009. June;89(6):1723–8. 10.3945/ajcn.2008.27061
    1. Hawley KL, Roberto CA, Bragg MA, Liu PJ, Schwartz MB, Brownell KD. The science on front-of-package food labels. Public Health Nutr. 2013. March;16(3):430–9. 10.1017/S1368980012000754
    1. Eyles H, Ni Mhurchu C, Nghiem N, Blakely T. Food pricing strategies, population diets, and non-communicable disease: a systematic review of simulation studies. PLoS Med. 2012;9(12):e1001353. 10.1371/journal.pmed.1001353
    1. Taber DR, Chriqui JF, Powell L, Chaloupka FJ. Association between state laws governing school meal nutrition content and student weight status: implications for new USDA school meal standards. JAMA Pediatr. 2013. June;167(6):513–9. 10.1001/jamapediatrics.2013.399
    1. Friel S, Gleeson D, Thow AM, Labonte R, Stuckler D, Kay A, et al. A new generation of trade policy: potential risks to diet-related health from the trans pacific partnership agreement. Global Health. 2013;9(1):46. 10.1186/1744-8603-9-46
    1. Franck C, Grandi SM, Eisenberg MJ. Agricultural subsidies and the American obesity epidemic. Am J Prev Med. 2013. September;45(3):327–33. 10.1016/j.amepre.2013.04.010
    1. Popkin BM, Adair LS, Ng SW. Global nutrition transition and the pandemic of obesity in developing countries. Nutr Rev. 2012. January;70(1):3–21. 10.1111/j.1753-4887.2011.00456.x
    1. Baker P, Friel S. Processed foods and the nutrition transition: evidence from Asia. Obes Rev. 2014. July;15(7):564–77. 10.1111/obr.12174
    1. Koch TG, Wilson N. Decomposing the American obesity epidemic [Working Paper No. 318]. Washington: Federal Trade Commission Bureau of Economics; 2013. Available from: [cited 2015 Feb 10].

Source: PubMed

Sponzoři a spolupracovníci

Zdravotní podmínky

Drogové intervence

3
Předplatit