- ICH GCP
- Registro de ensayos clínicos de EE. UU.
- Ensayo clínico NCT04410692
Can the Prediction Market Improve Predictions of COVID-19?
The goal of this study is to better understand how people predict the future risks of the novel Coronavirus (COVID-19).
Specifically, the investigators will ask the following research questions:
- How well do participants predict the future risks of COVID-19?
- Can the predictions be improved by using a prediction market mechanism?
- Does the prediction market reduce people's fear of COVID-19?
Descripción general del estudio
Estado
Condiciones
Intervención / Tratamiento
Descripción detallada
The proposed study is an online experiment. Students enrolled at National University of Singapore are recruited to participate in the study.
Participants will first complete a pre-experiment survey, which contains basic demographic questions. Then, participants will be randomly assigned to one of two conditions: "Survey" and "Prediction Market".
"SURVEY" CONDITION:
Participants in the "Survey" condition are asked 16 prediction questions in a survey format. The questions are of the following format:
"What do you think will be the total cumulative number of cases in Singapore on 8th of June, at 12pm?"
Each question has 5 answer options. Each answer option is a range of outcomes, e.g. "< 28,900", "between 28,900 and 33,899", "between 33,900 and 38,899", "between 38,900 and 43,899", and "> 43,899". Participants are required to enter their perceived likelihood of each answer option in %.
The 16 prediction questions come from the following variations: 4 countries (Mexico, Singapore, Turkey, USA) x 2 outcome measures (cases, deaths) x 2 time periods (8th of June, 6th of July).
Participants have 24 hours to submit their predictions.
After the 24-hour period, participants are requested to fill out a post-experiment survey, which includes questions about their subjective attitudes and fears towards COVID-19.
"PREDICTION MARKET" CONDITION:
For participants in the "Prediction Market" condition, the same 16 prediction questions are presented in the form of prediction markets. The prediction market is a well-established method of eliciting people's predictions. The method is briefly described below.
There are 16 prediction markets, one for each question. Participants are given 100 tokens per market, which can be used to buy "stocks" on possible outcomes. There are 5 possible outcomes per market (identical to the 5 answer options per question in the "Survey" condition).
Each stock (i.e., possible outcome) will have a price that is dynamically determined by the central marketplace, which is a function of real-time demand and supply of the option. If the option is popular, its price will become higher, and vice versa.
Participants can trade at any time, and as many times as they want, during a 24-hour period. Upon closure of the prediction market, participants will be rewarded proportional to the number of shares that they hold on options that later turn out to be true.
The final prices of stocks correspond to the group's predictions of COVID-19.
After the 24-hour period, participants are requested to fill out a post-experiment survey, which includes questions about their subjective attitudes and fears towards COVID-19.
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HYPOTHESES
The prediction market leads to better predictions about COVID-19. The investigators will compare the survey predictions and the prediction-market predictions with the actual realized outcome. The investigators hypothesize that the prediction-market predictions are more accurate than the survey predictions through information aggregation.
The prediction market reduces fear. Fear is measured by participants' responses to subjective attitude questions in the post-experiment survey.
Tipo de estudio
Inscripción (Actual)
Fase
- No aplica
Contactos y Ubicaciones
Ubicaciones de estudio
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Singapore, Singapur
- National University of Singapore
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Criterios de participación
Criterio de elegibilidad
Edades elegibles para estudiar
Acepta Voluntarios Saludables
Géneros elegibles para el estudio
Descripción
Inclusion Criteria:
- National University of Singapore students
Exclusion Criteria:
- N/A
Plan de estudios
¿Cómo está diseñado el estudio?
Detalles de diseño
- Propósito principal: Otro
- Asignación: Aleatorizado
- Modelo Intervencionista: Asignación paralela
- Enmascaramiento: Ninguno (etiqueta abierta)
Armas e Intervenciones
Grupo de participantes/brazo |
Intervención / Tratamiento |
---|---|
Sin intervención: Control
Participants' COVID-19 predictions are elicited via a survey
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Experimental: Treatment
Participants' COVID-19 predictions are elicited via a prediction market
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Participants "bet" on likely future outcomes using a prediction market
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¿Qué mide el estudio?
Medidas de resultado primarias
Medida de resultado |
Medida Descripción |
Periodo de tiempo |
---|---|---|
Predictions of COVID-19 Cases and Deaths
Periodo de tiempo: 24 hours
|
Participants are asked 16 questions of the following format: "What do you think will be the total cumulative number of cases in Singapore on 8th of June, at 12pm?" Each question has 5 answer options. Each answer option is a range of possible outcomes. The primary outcome measure is participants' perceived likelihood of each answer option. The 16 questions come from the following variations: 4 countries (Mexico, Singapore, Turkey, USA) x 2 outcome measures (cases, deaths) x 2 time periods (8th of June, 6th of July). |
24 hours
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Medidas de resultado secundarias
Medida de resultado |
Medida Descripción |
Periodo de tiempo |
---|---|---|
Fear
Periodo de tiempo: 24 hours (participants are required to submit post-experiment survey within 24 hours of completion of the main experiment)
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Fear is measured by participants' responses to subjective attitude questions in the post-experiment survey.
The questions are on a 5-point Likert scale.
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24 hours (participants are required to submit post-experiment survey within 24 hours of completion of the main experiment)
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Colaboradores e Investigadores
Patrocinador
Investigadores
- Investigador principal: Teck Ho, PhD, National University of Singapore
Publicaciones y enlaces útiles
Fechas de registro del estudio
Fechas importantes del estudio
Inicio del estudio (Actual)
Finalización primaria (Actual)
Finalización del estudio (Actual)
Fechas de registro del estudio
Enviado por primera vez
Primero enviado que cumplió con los criterios de control de calidad
Publicado por primera vez (Actual)
Actualizaciones de registros de estudio
Última actualización publicada (Actual)
Última actualización enviada que cumplió con los criterios de control de calidad
Última verificación
Más información
Términos relacionados con este estudio
Otros números de identificación del estudio
- SG-COVID
Plan de datos de participantes individuales (IPD)
¿Planea compartir datos de participantes individuales (IPD)?
Descripción del plan IPD
Marco de tiempo para compartir IPD
Criterios de acceso compartido de IPD
Tipo de información de apoyo para compartir IPD
- PROTOCOLO DE ESTUDIO
- CIF
- CÓDIGO_ANALÍTICO
Información sobre medicamentos y dispositivos, documentos del estudio
Estudia un producto farmacéutico regulado por la FDA de EE. UU.
Estudia un producto de dispositivo regulado por la FDA de EE. UU.
Esta información se obtuvo directamente del sitio web clinicaltrials.gov sin cambios. Si tiene alguna solicitud para cambiar, eliminar o actualizar los detalles de su estudio, comuníquese con register@clinicaltrials.gov. Tan pronto como se implemente un cambio en clinicaltrials.gov, también se actualizará automáticamente en nuestro sitio web. .
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