Transmissibility of influenza during the 21st-century epidemics, Spain, influenza seasons 2001/02 to 2017/18

Lidia Redondo-Bravo, Concepción Delgado-Sanz, Jesús Oliva, Tomás Vega, Jose Lozano, Amparo Larrauri, Spanish Influenza Sentinel Surveillance System, Lidia Redondo-Bravo, Concepción Delgado-Sanz, Jesús Oliva, Tomás Vega, Jose Lozano, Amparo Larrauri, Spanish Influenza Sentinel Surveillance System

Abstract

BackgroundUnderstanding influenza seasonality is necessary for determining policies for influenza control.AimWe characterised transmissibility during seasonal influenza epidemics, including one influenza pandemic, in Spain during the 21th century by using the moving epidemic method (MEM) to calculate intensity levels and estimate differences across seasons and age groups.MethodsWe applied the MEM to Spanish Influenza Sentinel Surveillance System data from influenza seasons 2001/02 to 2017/18. A modified version of Goldstein's proxy was used as an epidemiological-virological parameter. We calculated the average starting week and peak, the length of the epidemic period and the length from the starting week to the peak of the epidemic, by age group and according to seasonal virus circulation.ResultsIndividuals under 15 years of age presented higher transmissibility, especially in the 2009 influenza A(H1N1) pandemic. Seasons with dominance/co-dominance of influenza A(H3N2) virus presented high intensities in older adults. The 2004/05 influenza season showed the highest influenza-intensity level for all age groups. In 12 seasons, the epidemic started between week 50 and week 3. Epidemics started earlier in individuals under 15 years of age (-1.8 weeks; 95% confidence interval (CI):-2.8 to -0.7) than in those over 64 years when influenza B virus circulated as dominant/co-dominant. The average time from start to peak was 4.3 weeks (95% CI: 3.6-5.0) and the average epidemic length was 8.7 weeks (95% CI: 7.9-9.6).ConclusionsThese findings provide evidence for intensity differences across seasons and age groups, and can be used guide public health actions to diminish influenza-related morbidity and mortality.

Keywords: epidemiology; influenza; influenza-like illnesses; surveillance.

Conflict of interest statement

Conflict of interest: None declared.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Weekly analysed swabs and influenza positivity rate, Spain, influenza seasons 2001/02–2017/18
Figure 2
Figure 2
Influenza epidemic thresholds and intensity levels according to the moving epidemic method (MEM), overall (A) and by age group (B,C,D), using Proxya, Spain, influenza seasons 2001/02–2017/18

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