Global, regional, and national deaths, prevalence, disability-adjusted life years, and years lived with disability for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and asthma, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

GBD 2015 Chronic Respiratory Disease Collaborators, Joan B Soriano, Amanuel Alemu Abajobir, Kalkidan Hassen Abate, Semaw Ferede Abera, Anurag Agrawal, Muktar Beshir Ahmed, Amani Nidhal Aichour, Ibtihel Aichour, Miloud Taki Eddine Aichour, Khurshid Alam, Noore Alam, Juma M Alkaabi, Fatma Al-Maskari, Nelson Alvis-Guzman, Alemayehu Amberbir, Yaw Ampem Amoako, Mustafa Geleto Ansha, Josep M Antó, Hamid Asayesh, Tesfay Mehari Atey, Euripide Frinel G Arthur Avokpaho, Aleksandra Barac, Sanjay Basu, Neeraj Bedi, Isabela M Bensenor, Adugnaw Berhane, Addisu Shunu Beyene, Zulfiqar A Bhutta, Stan Biryukov, Dube Jara Boneya, Michael Brauer, David O Carpenter, Daniel Casey, Devasahayam Jesudas Christopher, Lalit Dandona, Rakhi Dandona, Samath D Dharmaratne, Huyen Phuc Do, Florian Fischer, Tsegaye T Gebrehiwot, Ayele Geleto, Aloke Gopal Ghoshal, Richard F Gillum, Ibrahim Abdelmageem Mohamed Ginawi, Vipin Gupta, Simon I Hay, Mohammad T Hedayati, Nobuyuki Horita, H Dean Hosgood, Mihajlo Michael B Jakovljevic, Spencer Lewis James, Jost B Jonas, Amir Kasaeian, Yousef Saleh Khader, Ibrahim A Khalil, Ejaz Ahmad Khan, Young-Ho Khang, Jagdish Khubchandani, Luke D Knibbs, Soewarta Kosen, Parvaiz A Koul, G Anil Kumar, Cheru Tesema Leshargie, Xiaofeng Liang, Hassan Magdy Abd El Razek, Azeem Majeed, Deborah Carvalho Malta, Treh Manhertz, Neal Marquez, Alem Mehari, George A Mensah, Ted R Miller, Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad, Kedir Endris Mohammed, Shafiu Mohammed, Ali H Mokdad, Mohsen Naghavi, Cuong Tat Nguyen, Grant Nguyen, Quyen Le Nguyen, Trang Huyen Nguyen, Dina Nur Anggraini Ningrum, Vuong Minh Nong, Jennifer Ifeoma Obi, Yewande E Odeyemi, Felix Akpojene Ogbo, Eyal Oren, Mahesh Pa, Eun-Kee Park, George C Patton, Katherine Paulson, Mostafa Qorbani, Reginald Quansah, Anwar Rafay, Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman, Rajesh Kumar Rai, Salman Rawaf, Nik Reinig, Saeid Safiri, Rodrigo Sarmiento-Suarez, Benn Sartorius, Miloje Savic, Monika Sawhney, Mika Shigematsu, Mari Smith, Fentaw Tadese, George D Thurston, Roman Topor-Madry, Bach Xuan Tran, Kingsley Nnanna Ukwaja, Job F M van Boven, Vasiliy Victorovich Vlassov, Stein Emil Vollset, Xia Wan, Andrea Werdecker, Sarah Wulf Hanson, Yuichiro Yano, Hassen Hamid Yimam, Naohiro Yonemoto, Chuanhua Yu, Zoubida Zaidi, Maysaa El Sayed Zaki, Alan D Lopez, Christopher J L Murray, Theo Vos, GBD 2015 Chronic Respiratory Disease Collaborators, Joan B Soriano, Amanuel Alemu Abajobir, Kalkidan Hassen Abate, Semaw Ferede Abera, Anurag Agrawal, Muktar Beshir Ahmed, Amani Nidhal Aichour, Ibtihel Aichour, Miloud Taki Eddine Aichour, Khurshid Alam, Noore Alam, Juma M Alkaabi, Fatma Al-Maskari, Nelson Alvis-Guzman, Alemayehu Amberbir, Yaw Ampem Amoako, Mustafa Geleto Ansha, Josep M Antó, Hamid Asayesh, Tesfay Mehari Atey, Euripide Frinel G Arthur Avokpaho, Aleksandra Barac, Sanjay Basu, Neeraj Bedi, Isabela M Bensenor, Adugnaw Berhane, Addisu Shunu Beyene, Zulfiqar A Bhutta, Stan Biryukov, Dube Jara Boneya, Michael Brauer, David O Carpenter, Daniel Casey, Devasahayam Jesudas Christopher, Lalit Dandona, Rakhi Dandona, Samath D Dharmaratne, Huyen Phuc Do, Florian Fischer, Tsegaye T Gebrehiwot, Ayele Geleto, Aloke Gopal Ghoshal, Richard F Gillum, Ibrahim Abdelmageem Mohamed Ginawi, Vipin Gupta, Simon I Hay, Mohammad T Hedayati, Nobuyuki Horita, H Dean Hosgood, Mihajlo Michael B Jakovljevic, Spencer Lewis James, Jost B Jonas, Amir Kasaeian, Yousef Saleh Khader, Ibrahim A Khalil, Ejaz Ahmad Khan, Young-Ho Khang, Jagdish Khubchandani, Luke D Knibbs, Soewarta Kosen, Parvaiz A Koul, G Anil Kumar, Cheru Tesema Leshargie, Xiaofeng Liang, Hassan Magdy Abd El Razek, Azeem Majeed, Deborah Carvalho Malta, Treh Manhertz, Neal Marquez, Alem Mehari, George A Mensah, Ted R Miller, Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad, Kedir Endris Mohammed, Shafiu Mohammed, Ali H Mokdad, Mohsen Naghavi, Cuong Tat Nguyen, Grant Nguyen, Quyen Le Nguyen, Trang Huyen Nguyen, Dina Nur Anggraini Ningrum, Vuong Minh Nong, Jennifer Ifeoma Obi, Yewande E Odeyemi, Felix Akpojene Ogbo, Eyal Oren, Mahesh Pa, Eun-Kee Park, George C Patton, Katherine Paulson, Mostafa Qorbani, Reginald Quansah, Anwar Rafay, Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman, Rajesh Kumar Rai, Salman Rawaf, Nik Reinig, Saeid Safiri, Rodrigo Sarmiento-Suarez, Benn Sartorius, Miloje Savic, Monika Sawhney, Mika Shigematsu, Mari Smith, Fentaw Tadese, George D Thurston, Roman Topor-Madry, Bach Xuan Tran, Kingsley Nnanna Ukwaja, Job F M van Boven, Vasiliy Victorovich Vlassov, Stein Emil Vollset, Xia Wan, Andrea Werdecker, Sarah Wulf Hanson, Yuichiro Yano, Hassen Hamid Yimam, Naohiro Yonemoto, Chuanhua Yu, Zoubida Zaidi, Maysaa El Sayed Zaki, Alan D Lopez, Christopher J L Murray, Theo Vos

Abstract

Background: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and asthma are common diseases with a heterogeneous distribution worldwide. Here, we present methods and disease and risk estimates for COPD and asthma from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) 2015 study. The GBD study provides annual updates on estimates of deaths, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), a summary measure of fatal and non-fatal disease outcomes, for over 300 diseases and injuries, for 188 countries from 1990 to the most recent year.

Methods: We estimated numbers of deaths due to COPD and asthma using the GBD Cause of Death Ensemble modelling (CODEm) tool. First, we analysed data from vital registration and verbal autopsy for the aggregate category of all chronic respiratory diseases. Subsequently, models were run for asthma and COPD relying on covariates to predict rates in countries that have incomplete or no vital registration data. Disease estimates for COPD and asthma were based on systematic reviews of published papers, unpublished reports, surveys, and health service encounter data from the USA. We used the Global Initiative of Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease spirometry-based definition as the reference for COPD and a reported diagnosis of asthma with current wheeze as the definition of asthma. We used a Bayesian meta-regression tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, to derive estimates of prevalence and incidence. We estimated population-attributable fractions for risk factors for COPD and asthma from exposure data, relative risks, and a theoretical minimum exposure level. Results were stratified by Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite measure of income per capita, mean years of education over the age of 15 years, and total fertility rate.

Findings: In 2015, 3·2 million people (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1 million to 3·3 million) died from COPD worldwide, an increase of 11·6% (95% UI 5·3 to 19·8) compared with 1990. There was a decrease in age-standardised death rate of 41·9% (37·7 to 45·1) but this was counteracted by population growth and ageing of the global population. From 1990 to 2015, the prevalence of COPD increased by 44·2% (41·7 to 46·6), whereas age-standardised prevalence decreased by 14·7% (13·5 to 15·9). In 2015, 0·40 million people (0·36 million to 0·44 million) died from asthma, a decrease of 26·7% (-7·2 to 43·7) from 1990, and the age-standardised death rate decreased by 58·8% (39·0 to 69·0). The prevalence of asthma increased by 12·6% (9·0 to 16·4), whereas the age-standardised prevalence decreased by 17·7% (15·1 to 19·9). Age-standardised DALY rates due to COPD increased until the middle range of the SDI before reducing sharply. Age-standardised DALY rates due to asthma in both sexes decreased monotonically with rising SDI. The relation between with SDI and DALY rates due to asthma was attributed to variation in years of life lost (YLLs), whereas DALY rates due to COPD varied similarly for YLLs and years lived with disability across the SDI continuum. Smoking and ambient particulate matter were the main risk factors for COPD followed by household air pollution, occupational particulates, ozone, and secondhand smoke. Together, these risks explained 73·3% (95% UI 65·8 to 80·1) of DALYs due to COPD. Smoking and occupational asthmagens were the only risks quantified for asthma in GBD, accounting for 16·5% (14·6 to 18·7) of DALYs due to asthma.

Interpretation: Asthma was the most prevalent chronic respiratory disease worldwide in 2015, with twice the number of cases of COPD. Deaths from COPD were eight times more common than deaths from asthma. In 2015, COPD caused 2·6% of global DALYs and asthma 1·1% of global DALYs. Although there are laudable international collaborative efforts to make surveys of asthma and COPD more comparable, no consensus exists on case definitions and how to measure disease severity for population health measurements like GBD. Comparisons between countries and over time are important, as much of the chronic respiratory burden is either preventable or treatable with affordable interventions.

Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Age-standardised DALY rate per 100 000 people due to COPD by country, both sexes, 2015 DALYs=disability-adjusted life years. COPD=chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. ATG=Antigua and Barbuda. FSM=Federated States of Micronesia. Isl=islands. LCA=Saint Lucia. TLS=Timor-Leste. TTO=Trinidad and Tobago. VCT=Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Age-standardised DALY rate per 100 000 people due to asthma, by country, both sexes, 2015 DALYs=disability-adjusted life years. ATG=Antigua and Barbuda. FSM=Federated States of Micronesia. Isl=islands. LCA=Saint Lucia. TLS=Timor-Leste. TTO=Trinidad and Tobago. VCT=Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Expected relationship between all-age DALY rates due to COPD and asthma and SDI by sex, 2015 DALYs=disability-adjusted life years. COPD=chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. SDI=Socio-demographic Index.
Figure 4
Figure 4
Expected relationship between age-standardised DALY rates due to COPD and asthma and SDI by sex, 2015 DALYs=disability-adjusted life years. COPD=chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. SDI=Socio-demographic Index.
Figure 5
Figure 5
Expected relationship between age-standardised DALY rates due to COPD and asthma and SDI by YLLs and YLDs, 2015 DALYs=disability-adjusted life years. COPD=chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. SDI=Socio-demographic Index. YLLs=years of life lost. YLDs=years lived with disability.
Figure 6
Figure 6
Age-standardised DALY rates due to COPD by 21 GBD world regions and the expected value based on the SDI by sex, 1990–2015 The black line represents the expected value of a disease rate based on a LOESS regression of all years of estimates by GBD locations and their SDI value. DALYs=disability-adjusted life years. COPD=chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. GBD=Global Burden of Disease. SDI=Socio-demographic Index. LOESS=locally weighted regression and smoothing scatterplots.
Figure 7
Figure 7
Age-standardised DALY rates due to asthma by 21 GBD world regions and the expected value based on the SDI by sex, 1990–2015 The black line represents the expected value of a disease rate based on a LOESS regression of all years of estimates by GBD locations and their SDI value. DALYs=disability-adjusted life years. GBD=Global Burden of Disease. SDI=Socio-demographic Index. LOESS=locally weighted regression and smoothing scatterplots.
Figure 8
Figure 8
Age-standardised DALY rates due to COPD and asthma attributable to seven risk factors, both sexes, 2015 COPD=chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. DALYs=disability-adjusted life years.
Figure 9
Figure 9
Contribution of behavioural and environmental and occupational risks to DALYs due to COPD per 100 000 people in locations grouped by SDI quintiles, 2015 Environmental and occupational: ambient particulate matter, household air pollution, occupational particulates, and ozone. Behavioural: smoking and second-hand smoke. Behavioural environmental: ambient particulate matter, household air pollution, occupational particulates, ozone, smoking, and second-hand smoke. DALYs=disability-adjusted life years. COPD=chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. SDI=Socio-demographic Index.

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