Vital signs: melanoma incidence and mortality trends and projections - United States, 1982-2030

Gery P Guy Jr, Cheryll C Thomas, Trevor Thompson, Meg Watson, Greta M Massetti, Lisa C Richardson, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Gery P Guy Jr, Cheryll C Thomas, Trevor Thompson, Meg Watson, Greta M Massetti, Lisa C Richardson, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)

Abstract

Background: Melanoma incidence rates have continued to increase in the United States, and risk behaviors remain high. Melanoma is responsible for the most skin cancer deaths, with about 9,000 persons dying from it each year.

Methods: CDC analyzed current (2011) melanoma incidence and mortality data, and projected melanoma incidence, mortality, and the cost of treating newly diagnosed melanomas through 2030. Finally, CDC estimated the potential melanoma cases and costs averted through 2030 if a comprehensive skin cancer prevention program was implemented in the United States.

Results: In 2011, the melanoma incidence rate was 19.7 per 100,000, and the death rate was 2.7 per 100,000. Incidence rates are projected to increase for white males and females through 2019. Death rates are projected to remain stable. The annual cost of treating newly diagnosed melanomas was estimated to increase from $457 million in 2011 to $1.6 billion in 2030. Implementation of a comprehensive skin cancer prevention program was estimated to avert 230,000 melanoma cases and $2.7 billion in initial year treatment costs from 2020 through 2030.

Conclusions: If additional prevention efforts are not undertaken, the number of melanoma cases is projected to increase over the next 15 years, with accompanying increases in health care costs. Much of this morbidity, mortality, and health care cost can be prevented.

Implications for public health practice: Substantial reductions in melanoma incidence, mortality, and cost can be achieved if evidence-based comprehensive interventions that reduce ultraviolet (UV) radiation exposure and increase sun protection are fully implemented and sustained.

Figures

FIGURE 1
FIGURE 1
Observed and projected age-adjusted melanoma incidence and mortality rates, by sex and race — United States, 1982–2030* Sources: Melanoma incidence data are from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program for the period 1982–2011. Mortality data are provided by CDC’s National Center for Health Statistics for the period 1982–2011. * Age-period-cohort regression models were used to project melanoma incidence and mortality rates through 2030.
FIGURE 2
FIGURE 2
Annual observed and projected number of new melanoma cases among whites — United States, 2011–2030
FIGURE 3
FIGURE 3
Annual observed and projected cost of treating new melanoma cases among whites — United States, 2011–2030

References

    1. Ekwueme DU, Guy GP, Li C, Rim SH, Parelkar P, Chen SC. The health burden and economic costs of cutaneous melanoma mortality by race/ethnicity—United States, 2000 to 2006. J Am Acad Dermatol. 2011;65:S133–S143.
    1. Guy GP, Machlin SR, Ekwueme DU, Yabroff KR. Prevalence and costs of skin cancer treatment in the US, 2002–2006 and 2007–2011. Am J Prev Med. 2015;48:183–7.
    1. Gilchrest BA, Eller MS, Geller AC, Yaar M. Mechanisms of disease: the pathogenesis of melanoma induced by ultraviolet radiation. N Engl J Med. 1999;340:1341–8.
    1. Armstrong BK, Kricker A. How much melanoma is caused by sun exposure? Melanoma Res. 1993;3:395–401.
    1. CDC. Preventing skin cancer: findings of the Task Force on Community Preventive Services on reducing exposure to ultraviolet light. MMWR Recomm Rep. 2003;52(RR-15)
    1. Dennis LK, Vanbeek MJ, Beane Freeman LE, Smith BJ, Dawson DV, Coughlin JA. Sunburns and risk of cutaneous melanoma: does age matter? A comprehensive meta-analysis. Ann Epidemiol. 2008;18:614–27.
    1. Holman DM, Berkowitz Z, Guy GP, Jr, Hartman AM, Perna FM. The association between demographic and behavioral characteristics and sunburn among U.S. adults—National Health Interview Survey, 2010. Prev Med. 2014;63:6–12.
    1. Shih ST, Carter R, Sinclair C, Mihalopoulos C, Vos T. Economic evaluation of skin cancer prevention in Australia. Prev Med. 2009;49:449–53.
    1. Carter R, Marks R, Hill D. Could a national skin cancer primary prevention campaign in Australia be worthwhile?: an economic perspective. Health Promot Int. 1999;14:73–82.
    1. Tiwari RC, Clegg LX, Zou Z. Efficient interval estimation for age-adjusted cancer rates. Stat Methods Med Res. 2006;15:547–69.
    1. Moller B, Fekjaer H, Hakulinen T, et al. Prediction of cancer incidence in the Nordic countries: empirical comparison of different approaches. Stat Med. 2003;22:2751–66.
    1. Mariotto AB, Robin Yabroff K, Shao Y, Feuer EJ, Brown ML. Projections of the cost of cancer care in the United States: 2010–2020. J Natl Cancer Inst. 2011;103:117–28.
    1. US Department of Health and Human Services. The Surgeon General’s call to action to prevent skin cancer. Washington, DC: US Department of Health and Human Services, Office of the Surgeon General; 2014. Available at .
    1. Moyer VA. Behavioral counseling to prevent skin cancer: US Preventive Services Task Force recommendation statement. Ann Intern Med. 2012;157:1–8.
    1. CDC. Sunburn and sun protective behaviors among adults aged 18–29 years—United States, 2000–2010. MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep. 2012;61:317–22.
    1. Wu XC, Eide MJ, King J, et al. Racial and ethnic variations in incidence and survival of cutaneous melanoma in the United States, 1999–2006. J Am Acad Dermatol. 2011;65:S26–S37.
    1. Battie C, Gohara M, Verschoore M, Roberts W. Skin cancer in skin of color: an update on current facts, trends, and misconceptions. J Drugs Dermatol. 2013;12:194–8.
    1. Myles ZM, Buchanan N, King JB, et al. Anatomic distribution of malignant melanoma on the non-Hispanic black patient, 1998–2007. Arch Dermatol. 2012;148:797–801.
    1. Jemal A, Saraiya M, Patel P, et al. Recent trends in cutaneous melanoma incidence and death rates in the United States, 1992–2006. J Am Acad Dermatol. 2011;65:S17.
    1. Colantonio S, Bracken MB, Beecker J. The association of indoor tanning and melanoma in adults: systematic review and meta-analysis. J Am Acad Dermatol. 2014;70:847–57.
    1. Guy GP, Berkowitz Z, Watson M, Holman DM, Richardson LC. Indoor tanning among young non-Hispanic white females. JAMA Intern Med. 2013;173:1920–2.
    1. Gandini S, Stanganelli I, Magi S, et al. Melanoma attributable to sunbed use and tan seeking behaviours: an Italian survey. Eur J Dermatol. 2014;24:35–40.

Source: PubMed

Sponsors en medewerkers

Medische omstandigheden

Geneesmiddelinterventies

3
Abonneren