Predictive Models for Intensive Care Admission and Death of COVID-19

May 22, 2020 updated by: Nicolas Parisi, Clinique Saint Pierre Ottignies

Development and Validation of Predictive Models for Intensive Care Admission and Death of COVID-19 Patients in a Secondary Care Hospital in Belgium.

To build simple and reliable predictive scores for intensive care admissions and deaths in COVID19 patients. These scores adhere to the TRIPOD (transparent reporting of a multivariable prediction model for individual prognosis or diagnosis) reporting guidelines.

The outcomes of the study are (i) admission in the Intensive Care Unit admission and (ii) death.

All patients admitted in the Emergency Department with a positive reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction SARS-COV2 test were included in the study. Routine clinical and laboratory data were collected at their admission and during their stay. Chest X-Rays and CT-Scans were performed and analyzed by a senior radiologist.

Generalized Linear Models using a binomial distribution with a logit link function (R software version X) were used to develop predictive scores for (i) admission to ICU among emergency ward patients; (ii) death among ICU patients. A first panel of Number Models with the highest AIC (BIC) was preselected. Ten-fold cross-validation was then used to estimate the out-of-sample prediction error among these preselected models. The one with the smallest prediction error was in the end singled out .

Study Overview

Status

Status

Indicates the current recruitment status or the expanded access status.
Unknown

Conditions

Conditions

The disease, disorder, syndrome, illness, or injury that is being studied. On ClinicalTrials.gov, conditions may also include other health-related issues, such as lifespan, quality of life, and health risks.

Intervention / Treatment

Intervention / Treatment

A process or action that is the focus of a clinical study. Interventions include drugs, medical devices, procedures, vaccines, and other products that are either investigational or already available. Interventions can also include noninvasive approaches, such as education or modifying diet and exercise.

Study Type

Study Type

Describes the nature of a clinical study. Study types include interventional studies (also called clinical trials), observational studies (including patient registries), and expanded access.
Observational

Enrollment (Actual)

Enrollment

The number of participants in a clinical study. The "anticipated" enrollment is the target number of participants that the researchers need for the study.
60

Contacts and Locations

This section provides the contact details for those conducting the study, and information on where this study is being conducted.

Study Locations

  • Belgium
    • Brabant Wallon
      • Ottignies, Brabant Wallon, Belgium, 1340
        • Clinique Saint-Pierre

Participation Criteria

Researchers look for people who fit a certain description, called eligibility criteria. Some examples of these criteria are a person's general health condition or prior treatments.

Eligibility Criteria

Eligibility Criteria

The key requirements that people who want to participate in a clinical study must meet or the characteristics they must have. Eligibility criteria consist of both inclusion criteria (which are required for a person to participate in the study) and exclusion criteria (which prevent a person from participating). Types of eligibility criteria include whether a study accepts healthy volunteers, has age or age group requirements, or is limited by sex.

Ages Eligible for Study

18 years and older (Adult, Older Adult)

Accepts Healthy Volunteers

N/A

Genders Eligible for Study

All

Sampling Method

Probability Sample

Study Population

all patient with COVID 19 with viral pneumonia

Description

Inclusion Criteria:

  • RT-PCR + SARS Cov2 pneumonia

Exclusion Criteria:

  • < 18 ans -* GOLD 3 or 4 CPOD

Study Plan

This section provides details of the study plan, including how the study is designed and what the study is measuring.

How is the study designed?

Design Details

Cohorts and Interventions

Group / Cohort

Group / Cohort

A group or subgroup of participants in an observational study that is assessed for biomedical or health outcomes.
Intervention / Treatment

Intervention / Treatment

A process or action that is the focus of a clinical study. Interventions include drugs, medical devices, procedures, vaccines, and other products that are either investigational or already available. Interventions can also include noninvasive approaches, such as education or modifying diet and exercise.
covid ICU patients
Other: predict admission of covid-19 patients to ICU and death with routine and quickly avalaible clinical, biological and radiological variables?

patients were questioned about their usual medication (Sartan, angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors, nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug, immunosuppressive drugs), their health condition (diabetes, hypertension, tobacco use, mental status). The Body mass index was computed.

Age, gender, caucasian/african, weight, body mass index, number of days with symptoms before hospitalization, asthenia, pyrexia, dyspnea, chest pain, digestive sign, anosmia, ageusia, confusion, Travel or contact < one month, cigarette consumption ,hypertension, diabetes, mental status, angiotensin-converting-enzyme inhibitors, Sartan, non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, immunosuppressive drugs, SpO2,Thoracic Computerized Tomography : % of lung injury, Thoracic Computerized Tomography : density of lung injury, blood type, white blood cells, neutrophils, lymphocytes, blood platelets, fibrinogen, ferritin, triglycerides, LDH, troponin, CRP. The dates of admission to ICU and death were recorded
covid conventionnal ward
Other: predict admission of covid-19 patients to ICU and death with routine and quickly avalaible clinical, biological and radiological variables?

patients were questioned about their usual medication (Sartan, angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors, nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug, immunosuppressive drugs), their health condition (diabetes, hypertension, tobacco use, mental status). The Body mass index was computed.

Age, gender, caucasian/african, weight, body mass index, number of days with symptoms before hospitalization, asthenia, pyrexia, dyspnea, chest pain, digestive sign, anosmia, ageusia, confusion, Travel or contact < one month, cigarette consumption ,hypertension, diabetes, mental status, angiotensin-converting-enzyme inhibitors, Sartan, non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, immunosuppressive drugs, SpO2,Thoracic Computerized Tomography : % of lung injury, Thoracic Computerized Tomography : density of lung injury, blood type, white blood cells, neutrophils, lymphocytes, blood platelets, fibrinogen, ferritin, triglycerides, LDH, troponin, CRP. The dates of admission to ICU and death were recorded

What is the study measuring?

Primary Outcome Measures

Primary Outcome Measures

In a clinical study's protocol, the planned outcome measure that is the most important for evaluating the effect of an intervention/treatment. Most clinical studies have one primary outcome measure, but some have more than one.
Outcome Measure
Time Frame
admission to ICU
Time Frame: through study completion, an average of 1 year
through study completion, an average of 1 year

Secondary Outcome Measures

Secondary Outcome Measures

In a clinical study's protocol, a planned outcome measure that is not as important as the primary outcome measure for evaluating the effect of an intervention but is still of interest. Most clinical studies have more than one secondary outcome measure.
Outcome Measure
Time Frame
death
Time Frame: through study completion, an average of 1 year
through study completion, an average of 1 year

Collaborators and Investigators

This is where you will find people and organizations involved with this study.

Sponsor

Sponsor

The organization or person who initiates the study and who has authority and control over the study.
Clinique Saint Pierre Ottignies

Publications and helpful links

The person responsible for entering information about the study voluntarily provides these publications. These may be about anything related to the study.

General Publications

Study record dates

These dates track the progress of study record and summary results submissions to ClinicalTrials.gov. Study records and reported results are reviewed by the National Library of Medicine (NLM) to make sure they meet specific quality control standards before being posted on the public website.

Study Major Dates

Study Start (Actual)

Study Start

The actual date on which the first participant was enrolled in a clinical study. The "anticipated" study start date is the date that the researchers think will be the study start date.
March 1, 2020

Primary Completion (Actual)

Primary Completion

The date on which the last participant in a clinical study was examined or received an intervention to collect final data for the primary outcome measure. Whether the clinical study ended according to the protocol or was terminated does not affect this date. For clinical studies with more than one primary outcome measure with different completion dates, this term refers to the date on which data collection is completed for all the primary outcome measures. The "anticipated" primary completion date is the date that the researchers think will be the primary completion date for the study.
May 1, 2020

Study Completion (Anticipated)

Study Completion

The date on which the last participant in a clinical study was examined or received an intervention/treatment to collect final data for the primary outcome measures, secondary outcome measures, and adverse events (that is, the last participant's last visit). The "anticipated" study completion date is the date that the researchers think will be the study completion date.
January 1, 2021

Study Registration Dates

First Submitted

First Submitted

The date on which the study sponsor or investigator first submitted a study record to ClinicalTrials.gov. There is typically a delay of a few days between the first submitted date and the record's availability on ClinicalTrials.gov (the first posted date).
May 21, 2020

First Submitted That Met QC Criteria

First Submitted That Met QC Criteria

The date on which the study sponsor or investigator first submits a study record that is consistent with National Library of Medicine (NLM) quality control (QC) review criteria. The sponsor or investigator may need to revise and submit a study record one or more times before NLM's QC review criteria are met. It is the responsibility of the sponsor or investigator to ensure that the study record is consistent with the NLM QC review criteria.
May 22, 2020

First Posted (Actual)

First Posted

The date on which the study record was first available on ClinicalTrials.gov after National Library of Medicine (NLM) quality control (QC) review has concluded. There is typically a delay of a few days between the date the study sponsor or investigator submitted the study record and the first posted date.
May 26, 2020

Study Record Updates

Last Update Posted (Actual)

Last Update Posted

The most recent date on which changes to a study record were made available on ClinicalTrials.gov. There may be a delay between when the changes were submitted to ClinicalTrials.gov by the study's sponsor or investigator (the last update submitted date) and the last update posted date.
May 26, 2020

Last Update Submitted That Met QC Criteria

Last Update Submitted That Met QC Criteria

The most recent date on which the study sponsor or investigator submitted changes to a study record that are consistent with National Library of Medicine (NLM) quality control (QC) review criteria. It is the responsibility of the sponsor or investigator to ensure that the study record is consistent with the NLM QC review criteria.
May 22, 2020

Last Verified

Last Verified

The most recent date on which the study sponsor or investigator confirmed the information about a clinical study on ClinicalTrials.gov as accurate and current. If a study with a recruitment status of recruiting; not yet recruiting; or active, not recruiting has not been confirmed within the past 2 years, the study's recruitment status is shown as unknown.
May 1, 2020

More Information

Terms related to this study

Keywords

Additional Relevant MeSH Terms

Other Study ID Numbers

Other Study ID Numbers

Identifiers or ID numbers other than the NCT number that are assigned to a clinical study by the study's sponsor, funders, or others. These numbers may include unique identifiers from other trial registries and National Institutes of Health grant numbers.
  • 0410508057

Plan for Individual participant data (IPD)

Plan to Share Individual Participant Data (IPD)?

YES

Drug and device information, study documents

Studies a U.S. FDA-regulated drug product

No

Studies a U.S. FDA-regulated device product

No

This information was retrieved directly from the website clinicaltrials.gov without any changes. If you have any requests to change, remove or update your study details, please contact register@clinicaltrials.gov. As soon as a change is implemented on clinicaltrials.gov, this will be updated automatically on our website as well.

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