Can the Prediction Market Improve Predictions of COVID-19?

May 30, 2020 updated by: Ho Teck Hua, National University of Singapore

The goal of this study is to better understand how people predict the future risks of the novel Coronavirus (COVID-19).

Specifically, the investigators will ask the following research questions:

  • How well do participants predict the future risks of COVID-19?
  • Can the predictions be improved by using a prediction market mechanism?
  • Does the prediction market reduce people's fear of COVID-19?

Study Overview

Status

Status

Indicates the current recruitment status or the expanded access status.
Completed

Conditions

Conditions

The disease, disorder, syndrome, illness, or injury that is being studied. On ClinicalTrials.gov, conditions may also include other health-related issues, such as lifespan, quality of life, and health risks.

Intervention / Treatment

Intervention / Treatment

A process or action that is the focus of a clinical study. Interventions include drugs, medical devices, procedures, vaccines, and other products that are either investigational or already available. Interventions can also include noninvasive approaches, such as education or modifying diet and exercise.

Detailed Description

The proposed study is an online experiment. Students enrolled at National University of Singapore are recruited to participate in the study.

Participants will first complete a pre-experiment survey, which contains basic demographic questions. Then, participants will be randomly assigned to one of two conditions: "Survey" and "Prediction Market".

"SURVEY" CONDITION:

Participants in the "Survey" condition are asked 16 prediction questions in a survey format. The questions are of the following format:

"What do you think will be the total cumulative number of cases in Singapore on 8th of June, at 12pm?"

Each question has 5 answer options. Each answer option is a range of outcomes, e.g. "< 28,900", "between 28,900 and 33,899", "between 33,900 and 38,899", "between 38,900 and 43,899", and "> 43,899". Participants are required to enter their perceived likelihood of each answer option in %.

The 16 prediction questions come from the following variations: 4 countries (Mexico, Singapore, Turkey, USA) x 2 outcome measures (cases, deaths) x 2 time periods (8th of June, 6th of July).

Participants have 24 hours to submit their predictions.

After the 24-hour period, participants are requested to fill out a post-experiment survey, which includes questions about their subjective attitudes and fears towards COVID-19.

"PREDICTION MARKET" CONDITION:

For participants in the "Prediction Market" condition, the same 16 prediction questions are presented in the form of prediction markets. The prediction market is a well-established method of eliciting people's predictions. The method is briefly described below.

There are 16 prediction markets, one for each question. Participants are given 100 tokens per market, which can be used to buy "stocks" on possible outcomes. There are 5 possible outcomes per market (identical to the 5 answer options per question in the "Survey" condition).

Each stock (i.e., possible outcome) will have a price that is dynamically determined by the central marketplace, which is a function of real-time demand and supply of the option. If the option is popular, its price will become higher, and vice versa.

Participants can trade at any time, and as many times as they want, during a 24-hour period. Upon closure of the prediction market, participants will be rewarded proportional to the number of shares that they hold on options that later turn out to be true.

The final prices of stocks correspond to the group's predictions of COVID-19.

After the 24-hour period, participants are requested to fill out a post-experiment survey, which includes questions about their subjective attitudes and fears towards COVID-19.

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HYPOTHESES

The prediction market leads to better predictions about COVID-19. The investigators will compare the survey predictions and the prediction-market predictions with the actual realized outcome. The investigators hypothesize that the prediction-market predictions are more accurate than the survey predictions through information aggregation.

The prediction market reduces fear. Fear is measured by participants' responses to subjective attitude questions in the post-experiment survey.

Study Type

Study Type

Describes the nature of a clinical study. Study types include interventional studies (also called clinical trials), observational studies (including patient registries), and expanded access.
Interventional

Enrollment (Actual)

Enrollment

The number of participants in a clinical study. The "anticipated" enrollment is the target number of participants that the researchers need for the study.
560

Phase

Phase

The stage of a clinical trial studying a drug or biological product, based on definitions developed by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). The phase is based on the study's objective, the number of participants, and other characteristics. There are five phases: Early Phase 1 (formerly listed as Phase 0), Phase 1, Phase 2, Phase 3, and Phase 4. Not Applicable is used to describe trials without FDA-defined phases, including trials of devices or behavioral interventions.
  • Not Applicable

Contacts and Locations

This section provides the contact details for those conducting the study, and information on where this study is being conducted.

Study Locations

  • Singapore
      • Singapore, Singapore
        • National University of Singapore

Participation Criteria

Researchers look for people who fit a certain description, called eligibility criteria. Some examples of these criteria are a person's general health condition or prior treatments.

Eligibility Criteria

Eligibility Criteria

The key requirements that people who want to participate in a clinical study must meet or the characteristics they must have. Eligibility criteria consist of both inclusion criteria (which are required for a person to participate in the study) and exclusion criteria (which prevent a person from participating). Types of eligibility criteria include whether a study accepts healthy volunteers, has age or age group requirements, or is limited by sex.

Ages Eligible for Study

18 years and older (Adult, Older Adult)

Accepts Healthy Volunteers

Yes

Genders Eligible for Study

All

Description

Inclusion Criteria:

  • National University of Singapore students

Exclusion Criteria:

  • N/A

Study Plan

This section provides details of the study plan, including how the study is designed and what the study is measuring.

How is the study designed?

Design Details

  • Primary Purpose: Other
  • Allocation: Randomized
  • Interventional Model: Parallel Assignment
  • Masking: None (Open Label)

Arms and Interventions

Participant Group / Arm

Participant Group / Arm

A group or subgroup of participants in a clinical trial that receives a specific intervention/treatment, or no intervention, according to the trial's protocol.
Intervention / Treatment

Intervention / Treatment

A process or action that is the focus of a clinical study. Interventions include drugs, medical devices, procedures, vaccines, and other products that are either investigational or already available. Interventions can also include noninvasive approaches, such as education or modifying diet and exercise.
No Intervention: Control
Participants' COVID-19 predictions are elicited via a survey
Experimental: Treatment
Participants' COVID-19 predictions are elicited via a prediction market
Other: Prediction Market
Participants "bet" on likely future outcomes using a prediction market

What is the study measuring?

Primary Outcome Measures

Primary Outcome Measures

In a clinical study's protocol, the planned outcome measure that is the most important for evaluating the effect of an intervention/treatment. Most clinical studies have one primary outcome measure, but some have more than one.
Outcome Measure
Measure Description
Time Frame
Predictions of COVID-19 Cases and Deaths
Time Frame: 24 hours

Participants are asked 16 questions of the following format:

"What do you think will be the total cumulative number of cases in Singapore on 8th of June, at 12pm?"

Each question has 5 answer options. Each answer option is a range of possible outcomes. The primary outcome measure is participants' perceived likelihood of each answer option.

The 16 questions come from the following variations: 4 countries (Mexico, Singapore, Turkey, USA) x 2 outcome measures (cases, deaths) x 2 time periods (8th of June, 6th of July).
24 hours

Secondary Outcome Measures

Secondary Outcome Measures

In a clinical study's protocol, a planned outcome measure that is not as important as the primary outcome measure for evaluating the effect of an intervention but is still of interest. Most clinical studies have more than one secondary outcome measure.
Outcome Measure
Measure Description
Time Frame
Fear
Time Frame: 24 hours (participants are required to submit post-experiment survey within 24 hours of completion of the main experiment)
Fear is measured by participants' responses to subjective attitude questions in the post-experiment survey. The questions are on a 5-point Likert scale.
24 hours (participants are required to submit post-experiment survey within 24 hours of completion of the main experiment)

Collaborators and Investigators

This is where you will find people and organizations involved with this study.

Sponsor

Sponsor

The organization or person who initiates the study and who has authority and control over the study.
National University of Singapore

Investigators

Investigators

A researcher involved in a clinical study. Related terms include site principal investigator, site sub-investigator, study chair, study director, and study principal investigator.
  • Principal Investigator: Teck Ho, PhD, National University of Singapore

Publications and helpful links

The person responsible for entering information about the study voluntarily provides these publications. These may be about anything related to the study.

General Publications

Study record dates

These dates track the progress of study record and summary results submissions to ClinicalTrials.gov. Study records and reported results are reviewed by the National Library of Medicine (NLM) to make sure they meet specific quality control standards before being posted on the public website.

Study Major Dates

Study Start (Actual)

Study Start

The actual date on which the first participant was enrolled in a clinical study. The "anticipated" study start date is the date that the researchers think will be the study start date.
May 15, 2020

Primary Completion (Actual)

Primary Completion

The date on which the last participant in a clinical study was examined or received an intervention to collect final data for the primary outcome measure. Whether the clinical study ended according to the protocol or was terminated does not affect this date. For clinical studies with more than one primary outcome measure with different completion dates, this term refers to the date on which data collection is completed for all the primary outcome measures. The "anticipated" primary completion date is the date that the researchers think will be the primary completion date for the study.
May 16, 2020

Study Completion (Actual)

Study Completion

The date on which the last participant in a clinical study was examined or received an intervention/treatment to collect final data for the primary outcome measures, secondary outcome measures, and adverse events (that is, the last participant's last visit). The "anticipated" study completion date is the date that the researchers think will be the study completion date.
May 17, 2020

Study Registration Dates

First Submitted

First Submitted

The date on which the study sponsor or investigator first submitted a study record to ClinicalTrials.gov. There is typically a delay of a few days between the first submitted date and the record's availability on ClinicalTrials.gov (the first posted date).
May 27, 2020

First Submitted That Met QC Criteria

First Submitted That Met QC Criteria

The date on which the study sponsor or investigator first submits a study record that is consistent with National Library of Medicine (NLM) quality control (QC) review criteria. The sponsor or investigator may need to revise and submit a study record one or more times before NLM's QC review criteria are met. It is the responsibility of the sponsor or investigator to ensure that the study record is consistent with the NLM QC review criteria.
May 29, 2020

First Posted (Actual)

First Posted

The date on which the study record was first available on ClinicalTrials.gov after National Library of Medicine (NLM) quality control (QC) review has concluded. There is typically a delay of a few days between the date the study sponsor or investigator submitted the study record and the first posted date.
June 1, 2020

Study Record Updates

Last Update Posted (Actual)

Last Update Posted

The most recent date on which changes to a study record were made available on ClinicalTrials.gov. There may be a delay between when the changes were submitted to ClinicalTrials.gov by the study's sponsor or investigator (the last update submitted date) and the last update posted date.
June 2, 2020

Last Update Submitted That Met QC Criteria

Last Update Submitted That Met QC Criteria

The most recent date on which the study sponsor or investigator submitted changes to a study record that are consistent with National Library of Medicine (NLM) quality control (QC) review criteria. It is the responsibility of the sponsor or investigator to ensure that the study record is consistent with the NLM QC review criteria.
May 30, 2020

Last Verified

Last Verified

The most recent date on which the study sponsor or investigator confirmed the information about a clinical study on ClinicalTrials.gov as accurate and current. If a study with a recruitment status of recruiting; not yet recruiting; or active, not recruiting has not been confirmed within the past 2 years, the study's recruitment status is shown as unknown.
May 1, 2020

More Information

Terms related to this study

Other Study ID Numbers

Other Study ID Numbers

Identifiers or ID numbers other than the NCT number that are assigned to a clinical study by the study's sponsor, funders, or others. These numbers may include unique identifiers from other trial registries and National Institutes of Health grant numbers.
  • SG-COVID

Plan for Individual participant data (IPD)

Plan to Share Individual Participant Data (IPD)?

YES

IPD Plan Description

Investigators will not be storing or sharing any personal identifiers. All individual level data will be anonymized, and only anonymized data will be shared with other researchers, upon request.

IPD Sharing Time Frame

After completion of all analysis. It will be made available in the supporting documentation.

IPD Sharing Access Criteria

It will be made available in the supporting documentation.

IPD Sharing Supporting Information Type

  • STUDY_PROTOCOL
  • ICF
  • ANALYTIC_CODE

Drug and device information, study documents

Studies a U.S. FDA-regulated drug product

No

Studies a U.S. FDA-regulated device product

No

This information was retrieved directly from the website clinicaltrials.gov without any changes. If you have any requests to change, remove or update your study details, please contact register@clinicaltrials.gov. As soon as a change is implemented on clinicaltrials.gov, this will be updated automatically on our website as well.

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