A Machine Learning-based Estimated Survival Model

May 22, 2024 updated by: Zhao Siyao

Construction and Validation of a Machine Learning-based Estimated Survival Model for Elderly Patients With Advanced Malignancy

Malignant tumors are the leading cause of death in elderly patients, and palliative care can improve the quality of life for elderly advanced cancer patients. One of the main reasons why these patients are not included in palliative care is the lack of accurate estimation of their survival period by patients, family members, and doctors. Both doctors and patients tend to be overly optimistic about the survival period of elderly advanced cancer patients, leading to overtreatment. Therefore, assessing the risk of death for these patients and further establishing a survival period estimation model can improve the accuracy of doctors' clinical predictions of patient survival, facilitate early referral to palliative care, and promote rationalization of medical decision-making.

Study Overview

Status

Status

Indicates the current recruitment status or the expanded access status.
Active, not recruiting

Conditions

Conditions

The disease, disorder, syndrome, illness, or injury that is being studied. On ClinicalTrials.gov, conditions may also include other health-related issues, such as lifespan, quality of life, and health risks.

Detailed Description

  1. By searching the literature, conducting systematic reviews, and meta-analyses, we aim to uncover the prognostic factors related to death in elderly advanced cancer patients.
  2. Based on evidence-based data and considering the clinical conditions of elderly advanced cancer patients in China, we will establish relevant entries for a risk assessment scale for death in elderly advanced cancer patients. By using the Delphi expert consultation evaluation method, we will finalize the assessment scale framework, laying the theoretical foundation for the establishment and validation of a death risk prediction model for elderly advanced cancer patients in China.
  3. Develop a survival estimation model for elderly advanced cancer patients; through metabolomics studies and other research methods, we will investigate metabolic biomarkers related to predicting the survival period of elderly advanced cancer patients.

Study Type

Study Type

Describes the nature of a clinical study. Study types include interventional studies (also called clinical trials), observational studies (including patient registries), and expanded access.
Observational

Enrollment (Estimated)

Enrollment

The number of participants in a clinical study. The "anticipated" enrollment is the target number of participants that the researchers need for the study.
1000

Contacts and Locations

This section provides the contact details for those conducting the study, and information on where this study is being conducted.

Study Locations

  • China
    • Sichuan
      • Chengdu, Sichuan, China, 610041
        • Siyao Zhao

Participation Criteria

Researchers look for people who fit a certain description, called eligibility criteria. Some examples of these criteria are a person's general health condition or prior treatments.

Eligibility Criteria

Eligibility Criteria

The key requirements that people who want to participate in a clinical study must meet or the characteristics they must have. Eligibility criteria consist of both inclusion criteria (which are required for a person to participate in the study) and exclusion criteria (which prevent a person from participating). Types of eligibility criteria include whether a study accepts healthy volunteers, has age or age group requirements, or is limited by sex.

Ages Eligible for Study

  • Adult
  • Older Adult

Accepts Healthy Volunteers

No

Sampling Method

Probability Sample

Study Population

Advanced cancer （stage III and IV） malignant tumor patients aged 60 years and above.

Description

Inclusion Criteria:Inclusion criteria for late-stage malignant tumor patients: Must meet Condition 1) and also meet either Condition 2), 3), or 4):

  1. Clinical diagnosis of advanced malignant tumor: TNM stage III or IV
  2. "Surprise question": If this patient were to die within the next 6 months, it would not be surprising to you.
  3. Karnofsky performance status (KPS) score ≤ 50
  4. Palliative Performance Scale (PPS) ≤ 50%

Exclusion Criteria:

  1. Patients who refuse to participate in the study;
  2. Patients who, for various reasons, are unable to cooperate and complete the questionnaire survey;
  3. Patients who, for various reasons, are unable to cooperate and complete the follow-up.

Study Plan

This section provides details of the study plan, including how the study is designed and what the study is measuring.

How is the study designed?

Design Details

Cohorts and Interventions

Group / Cohort

Group / Cohort

A group or subgroup of participants in an observational study that is assessed for biomedical or health outcomes.
advanced cancer (stage III and IV) patients aged 60 years and above.
advanced cancer (stage III and IV) patients aged 60 years and above who are receiving treatment at the mentioned institution. The research subjects voluntarily participate and sign informed consent forms.

What is the study measuring?

Primary Outcome Measures

Primary Outcome Measures

In a clinical study's protocol, the planned outcome measure that is the most important for evaluating the effect of an intervention/treatment. Most clinical studies have one primary outcome measure, but some have more than one.
Outcome Measure
Measure Description
Time Frame
A model
Time Frame: 2026-12-31
Build a survival estimation model for elderly late-stage cancer patients.
2026-12-31

Collaborators and Investigators

This is where you will find people and organizations involved with this study.

Sponsor

Sponsor

The organization or person who initiates the study and who has authority and control over the study.
Zhao Siyao

Investigators

Investigators

A researcher involved in a clinical study. Related terms include site principal investigator, site sub-investigator, study chair, study director, and study principal investigator.
  • Principal Investigator: Siyao Zhao, postgraduate, West China Hospital

Study record dates

These dates track the progress of study record and summary results submissions to ClinicalTrials.gov. Study records and reported results are reviewed by the National Library of Medicine (NLM) to make sure they meet specific quality control standards before being posted on the public website.

Study Major Dates

Study Start (Actual)

Study Start

The actual date on which the first participant was enrolled in a clinical study. The "anticipated" study start date is the date that the researchers think will be the study start date.
May 1, 2024

Primary Completion (Estimated)

Primary Completion

The date on which the last participant in a clinical study was examined or received an intervention to collect final data for the primary outcome measure. Whether the clinical study ended according to the protocol or was terminated does not affect this date. For clinical studies with more than one primary outcome measure with different completion dates, this term refers to the date on which data collection is completed for all the primary outcome measures. The "anticipated" primary completion date is the date that the researchers think will be the primary completion date for the study.
December 31, 2025

Study Completion (Estimated)

Study Completion

The date on which the last participant in a clinical study was examined or received an intervention/treatment to collect final data for the primary outcome measures, secondary outcome measures, and adverse events (that is, the last participant's last visit). The "anticipated" study completion date is the date that the researchers think will be the study completion date.
December 31, 2026

Study Registration Dates

First Submitted

First Submitted

The date on which the study sponsor or investigator first submitted a study record to ClinicalTrials.gov. There is typically a delay of a few days between the first submitted date and the record's availability on ClinicalTrials.gov (the first posted date).
May 15, 2024

First Submitted That Met QC Criteria

First Submitted That Met QC Criteria

The date on which the study sponsor or investigator first submits a study record that is consistent with National Library of Medicine (NLM) quality control (QC) review criteria. The sponsor or investigator may need to revise and submit a study record one or more times before NLM's QC review criteria are met. It is the responsibility of the sponsor or investigator to ensure that the study record is consistent with the NLM QC review criteria.
May 22, 2024

First Posted (Actual)

First Posted

The date on which the study record was first available on ClinicalTrials.gov after National Library of Medicine (NLM) quality control (QC) review has concluded. There is typically a delay of a few days between the date the study sponsor or investigator submitted the study record and the first posted date.
May 29, 2024

Study Record Updates

Last Update Posted (Actual)

Last Update Posted

The most recent date on which changes to a study record were made available on ClinicalTrials.gov. There may be a delay between when the changes were submitted to ClinicalTrials.gov by the study's sponsor or investigator (the last update submitted date) and the last update posted date.
May 29, 2024

Last Update Submitted That Met QC Criteria

Last Update Submitted That Met QC Criteria

The most recent date on which the study sponsor or investigator submitted changes to a study record that are consistent with National Library of Medicine (NLM) quality control (QC) review criteria. It is the responsibility of the sponsor or investigator to ensure that the study record is consistent with the NLM QC review criteria.
May 22, 2024

Last Verified

Last Verified

The most recent date on which the study sponsor or investigator confirmed the information about a clinical study on ClinicalTrials.gov as accurate and current. If a study with a recruitment status of recruiting; not yet recruiting; or active, not recruiting has not been confirmed within the past 2 years, the study's recruitment status is shown as unknown.
May 1, 2024

More Information

Terms related to this study

Other Study ID Numbers

Other Study ID Numbers

Identifiers or ID numbers other than the NCT number that are assigned to a clinical study by the study's sponsor, funders, or others. These numbers may include unique identifiers from other trial registries and National Institutes of Health grant numbers.
  • 2024 Review (807)

Drug and device information, study documents

Studies a U.S. FDA-regulated drug product

No

Studies a U.S. FDA-regulated device product

No

This information was retrieved directly from the website clinicaltrials.gov without any changes. If you have any requests to change, remove or update your study details, please contact register@clinicaltrials.gov. As soon as a change is implemented on clinicaltrials.gov, this will be updated automatically on our website as well.

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