Real-Time Acute Kidney Injury Perioperative Prediction Clinical Trial (ML-AKI)

May 19, 2026 updated by: University of California, San Francisco

Prediction of Acute Kidney Injury (AKI) After Surgery: A Pragmatic Three-Arm Cluster-Randomized Trial

This investigator-initiated, pragmatic trial evaluates whether displaying a machine learning (ML)- derived perioperative AKI risk score-alone or paired with an interruptive Best/Our Practice Advisory (BPA/OPA)-improves kidney-protective care and reduces kidney injury after non-obstetric surgery at UCSF. Approximately 75-100 attending anesthesiologists (clusters) are randomized 1:1:1 to: (a) Control (risk score hidden), (b) Score Only (visible preoperative AKI risk probability with passive KDIGO bundle recommendation), or (c) Score + BPA (visible risk plus interruptive KDIGO prompt for high-risk patients). CRNAs/residents follow their attending' s assignment. Adult inpatients (age ≥18) with expected overnight stay and eGFR ≥15 mL/min/1.73 m² are included; obstetrics, chronic dialysis, and kidney transplant patients are excluded. The underlying preoperative model was prospectively validated at UCSF and outperforms anesthesiologist risk estimation reported in the literature. The model was reviewed and approved by the AI Oversight Committee at UCSF. Primary endpoint is the continuous change in serum creatinine (mg/dL) from baseline to POD 1-2. Secondary outcomes include KDIGO-defined AKI, adherence to bundle elements (hemodynamics, balanced fluids, nephrotoxin avoidance, glycemic control), intraoperative hypotension time, fluid volumes, nephrotoxin exposure, perioperative hyperglycemia, length of stay, unplanned ICU transfer, readmission, dialysis, and in-hospital mortality. Data are obtained from the EHR; analysts are blinded. No direct subject interaction is planned; the investigators will request a waiver of patient consent. The study aims to demonstrate that ML-enabled, workflow-embedded decision support can safely and feasibly improve guideline concordant care and decrease early postoperative kidney injury.

Study Overview

Status

Status

Indicates the current recruitment status or the expanded access status.
Not yet recruiting

Conditions

Conditions

The disease, disorder, syndrome, illness, or injury that is being studied. On ClinicalTrials.gov, conditions may also include other health-related issues, such as lifespan, quality of life, and health risks.

Intervention / Treatment

Intervention / Treatment

A process or action that is the focus of a clinical study. Interventions include drugs, medical devices, procedures, vaccines, and other products that are either investigational or already available. Interventions can also include noninvasive approaches, such as education or modifying diet and exercise.

Study Type

Study Type

Describes the nature of a clinical study. Study types include interventional studies (also called clinical trials), observational studies (including patient registries), and expanded access.
Interventional

Enrollment (Estimated)

Enrollment

The number of participants in a clinical study. The "anticipated" enrollment is the target number of participants that the researchers need for the study.
25518

Phase

Phase

The stage of a clinical trial studying a drug or biological product, based on definitions developed by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). The phase is based on the study's objective, the number of participants, and other characteristics. There are five phases: Early Phase 1 (formerly listed as Phase 0), Phase 1, Phase 2, Phase 3, and Phase 4. Not Applicable is used to describe trials without FDA-defined phases, including trials of devices or behavioral interventions.
  • Not Applicable

Contacts and Locations

This section provides the contact details for those conducting the study, and information on where this study is being conducted.

Study Contact

Study Contact

The name and contact information for the person who can answer enrollment questions for a clinical study. Each location where the study is being conducted may also have a specific contact, who may be better able to answer those questions.

Study Locations

  • United States
    • California
      • San Francisco, California, United States, 94158
        • University of California, San Francisco

Participation Criteria

Researchers look for people who fit a certain description, called eligibility criteria. Some examples of these criteria are a person's general health condition or prior treatments.

Eligibility Criteria

Eligibility Criteria

The key requirements that people who want to participate in a clinical study must meet or the characteristics they must have. Eligibility criteria consist of both inclusion criteria (which are required for a person to participate in the study) and exclusion criteria (which prevent a person from participating). Types of eligibility criteria include whether a study accepts healthy volunteers, has age or age group requirements, or is limited by sex.

Ages Eligible for Study

  • Adult
  • Older Adult

Accepts Healthy Volunteers

Yes

Description

Inclusion Criteria:

  • Adults ≥18 years undergoing non-obstetric surgery at UCSF.
  • Inpatient cases with expected overnight stay.
  • Baseline eGFR ≥15 mL/min/1.73 m².
  • Managed by an attending anesthesiologist randomized to one of three arms (CRNAs/residents follow attending).
  • Data available in the UCSF EHR for risk scoring and outcomes.

Exclusion Criteria:

  • Obstetric procedures.
  • Chronic dialysis patients.
  • Kidney transplant recipients.
  • Cases without baseline creatinine/eGFR or missing essential EHR elements needed for scoring/outcomes (operational exclusions).
  • Outpatient procedures without expected overnight stay.

Study Plan

This section provides details of the study plan, including how the study is designed and what the study is measuring.

How is the study designed?

Design Details

  • Primary Purpose: Screening
  • Allocation: Randomized
  • Interventional Model: Parallel Assignment
  • Masking: None (Open Label)

Arms and Interventions

Participant Group / Arm

Participant Group / Arm

A group or subgroup of participants in a clinical trial that receives a specific intervention/treatment, or no intervention, according to the trial's protocol.
Intervention / Treatment

Intervention / Treatment

A process or action that is the focus of a clinical study. Interventions include drugs, medical devices, procedures, vaccines, and other products that are either investigational or already available. Interventions can also include noninvasive approaches, such as education or modifying diet and exercise.
No Intervention: Control Arm
Participants receive usual perioperative care with a placeholder blank display without the machine learning-derived acute kidney injury (AKI) risk score. The clinical decision support tool remains hidden in the electronic health record, and no alerts or recommendations related to the study are shown.
Experimental: Acute Kidney Injury Risk Score Only
A machine learning-derived preoperative AKI risk score is displayed within the electronic health record for high-risk patients. A passive recommendation indicating that the patient may benefit from a KDIGO-based kidney-protective bundle is provided. The information is advisory only, and no interruptive alerts are used.
Device: EHR-Embedded AKI Risk Score
A non-adaptive, machine learning-based clinical decision support tool integrated into the electronic health record that generates a preoperative probability of acute kidney injury (AKI) using routinely collected patient data. For patients identified as high risk, the tool displays the risk estimate to anesthesia providers without an accompanying Best Practice Advisory (BPA) recommending consideration of a KDIGO-based kidney-protective bundle. The intervention is advisory only, does not mandate clinical actions, and is designed to support provider decision-making within the existing clinical workflow.
Other Names:
  • EHR-Embedded AKI Clinical Decision Support Tool
Experimental: Acute Kidney Injury Risk Score with Best Practice Advisory
The machine learning-derived AKI risk score is displayed within the electronic health record for high-risk patients, accompanied by an interruptive Best Practice Advisory (BPA) that notifies providers that the patient may benefit from a KDIGO-based kidney-protective bundle. The alert is advisory only and does not mandate clinical actions.
Device: EHR-Embedded AKI Risk Score with Best Practice Advisory
A non-adaptive, machine learning-based clinical decision support tool integrated into the electronic health record that generates a preoperative probability of acute kidney injury (AKI) using routinely collected patient data. For patients identified as high risk, the tool displays the risk estimate to anesthesia providers with an accompanying Best Practice Advisory (BPA) recommending consideration of a KDIGO-based kidney-protective bundle. The intervention is advisory only, does not mandate clinical actions, and is designed to support provider decision-making within the existing clinical workflow.
Other Names:
  • EHR-Embedded AKI Clinical Decision Support Tool

What is the study measuring?

Primary Outcome Measures

Primary Outcome Measures

In a clinical study's protocol, the planned outcome measure that is the most important for evaluating the effect of an intervention/treatment. Most clinical studies have one primary outcome measure, but some have more than one.
Outcome Measure
Measure Description
Time Frame
Post-operative Change in Creatinine
Time Frame: From pre-operative baseline to 1-2 days post-operative level
Maximum continuous change in serum creatinine (mg/dL) from baseline to post-operative day 1-2
From pre-operative baseline to 1-2 days post-operative level

Secondary Outcome Measures

Secondary Outcome Measures

In a clinical study's protocol, a planned outcome measure that is not as important as the primary outcome measure for evaluating the effect of an intervention but is still of interest. Most clinical studies have more than one secondary outcome measure.
Outcome Measure
Measure Description
Time Frame
Acute Kidney Injury
Time Frame: Operation to Post-operative Day 7
Acute Kidney Injury as defined by KDIGO
Operation to Post-operative Day 7
KDIGO Bundle Adherence
Time Frame: Intra-operative
Measurement of provider adherence to KDIGO components
Intra-operative
Intra-Operative Time and Severity of Hypotension
Time Frame: Intra-operative
Intra-Operative Time and Severity (meaning how far below the threshold) where patient is in hypotension, defined as systolic blood pressure <90 mmHg and mean arterial pressure <65 mmHg during surgery
Intra-operative
Total intra-operative intravenous fluid volume administered (mL)
Time Frame: Intra-operative
Provider administration of intravenous fluids during the intra-operative period, measured in milliliters (mL). Intravenous fluids include normal saline, lactated Ringer's, Plasma-Lyte, other balanced crystalloids, and colloid solutions such as albumin.
Intra-operative
Length of Stay
Time Frame: Operation to Post-operative Day 180
Duration of patient admission in hospital in days
Operation to Post-operative Day 180
Intra-operative Hyperglycemic Events
Time Frame: Intra-operative
Number of intra-operative hyperglycemic events, defined as the number of recorded blood glucose measurements exceeding 180 mg/dL.
Intra-operative
Intra-operative Nephrotoxin Exposure
Time Frame: Intra-operative
Number of nephrotoxic medications administered intra-operatively and duration of intra-operative exposure
Intra-operative
In-Hospital Mortality
Time Frame: Operation to Post-operative Day 180
Patient death while admitted in the hospital
Operation to Post-operative Day 180
ICU Transfer and total time in the ICU
Time Frame: Postoperative
Any transfers to the ICU while admitted and the total time the patient spends in the ICU
Postoperative
Hospital Readmission
Time Frame: Operation to Post-operative Day 180
Readmission back to a UCSF hospital following operation
Operation to Post-operative Day 180
Dialysis Requirement
Time Frame: Operation to Post-operative Day 180
Patients requiring dialysis following surgery
Operation to Post-operative Day 180
Dilution Corrected KDIGO AKI measurement (Stage 1 or higher)
Time Frame: AKI is defined per KDIGO as corrected creatinine increase ≥0.3 mg/dL within 48 hours or ≥1.5× baseline within 7 days. This measure captures "hidden AKI" - kidney injury masked by fluid dilution that would be missed using standard uncorrected creatinine.

Acute kidney injury (AKI) assessed using KDIGO creatinine criteria applied to dilution-corrected postoperative serum creatinine. Creatinine is corrected for hemodilution from perioperative fluid retention using the formula:

Corrected Creatinine (mg/dL) = Measured Creatinine × (1 + Net Fluid Balance / Total Body Water)

Where:

  • Net Fluid Balance (L) = Fluid inputs - urine output - blood loss - other outputs
  • Total Body Water (L) = 0.6 × weight (kg) for males; 0.5 × weight (kg) for females
AKI is defined per KDIGO as corrected creatinine increase ≥0.3 mg/dL within 48 hours or ≥1.5× baseline within 7 days. This measure captures "hidden AKI" - kidney injury masked by fluid dilution that would be missed using standard uncorrected creatinine.
Total intra-operative packed red blood cells administered (units transfused)
Time Frame: intraoperative
Provider administration of packed red blood cells during the intra-operative period, measured as total units transfused.
intraoperative
Total intra-operative fresh frozen plasma administered (units transfused)
Time Frame: intraoperative
Provider administration of fresh frozen plasma during the intra-operative period, measured as total units transfused.
intraoperative
Total intra-operative platelets administered (units transfused)
Time Frame: intraoperative
Provider administration of platelets during the intra-operative period, measured as total units transfused.
intraoperative
Total intra-operative cryoprecipitate administered (units transfused)
Time Frame: intraoperative
Provider administration of cryoprecipitate during the intra-operative period, measured as total units transfused.
intraoperative

Collaborators and Investigators

This is where you will find people and organizations involved with this study.

Sponsor

Sponsor

The organization or person who initiates the study and who has authority and control over the study.
University of California, San Francisco

Collaborators

Collaborators

An organization other than the sponsor that provides support for a clinical study. This support may include activities related to funding, design, implementation, data analysis, or reporting.
National Institute of General Medical Sciences (NIGMS)

Investigators

Investigators

A researcher involved in a clinical study. Related terms include site principal investigator, site sub-investigator, study chair, study director, and study principal investigator.
  • Principal Investigator: Andrew Bishara, MD, University of California, San Francisco

Publications and helpful links

The person responsible for entering information about the study voluntarily provides these publications. These may be about anything related to the study.

General Publications

Study record dates

These dates track the progress of study record and summary results submissions to ClinicalTrials.gov. Study records and reported results are reviewed by the National Library of Medicine (NLM) to make sure they meet specific quality control standards before being posted on the public website.

Study Major Dates

Study Start (Estimated)

Study Start

The actual date on which the first participant was enrolled in a clinical study. The "anticipated" study start date is the date that the researchers think will be the study start date.
October 15, 2026

Primary Completion (Estimated)

Primary Completion

The date on which the last participant in a clinical study was examined or received an intervention to collect final data for the primary outcome measure. Whether the clinical study ended according to the protocol or was terminated does not affect this date. For clinical studies with more than one primary outcome measure with different completion dates, this term refers to the date on which data collection is completed for all the primary outcome measures. The "anticipated" primary completion date is the date that the researchers think will be the primary completion date for the study.
October 15, 2027

Study Completion (Estimated)

Study Completion

The date on which the last participant in a clinical study was examined or received an intervention/treatment to collect final data for the primary outcome measures, secondary outcome measures, and adverse events (that is, the last participant's last visit). The "anticipated" study completion date is the date that the researchers think will be the study completion date.
December 15, 2027

Study Registration Dates

First Submitted

First Submitted

The date on which the study sponsor or investigator first submitted a study record to ClinicalTrials.gov. There is typically a delay of a few days between the first submitted date and the record's availability on ClinicalTrials.gov (the first posted date).
April 9, 2026

First Submitted That Met QC Criteria

First Submitted That Met QC Criteria

The date on which the study sponsor or investigator first submits a study record that is consistent with National Library of Medicine (NLM) quality control (QC) review criteria. The sponsor or investigator may need to revise and submit a study record one or more times before NLM's QC review criteria are met. It is the responsibility of the sponsor or investigator to ensure that the study record is consistent with the NLM QC review criteria.
May 19, 2026

First Posted (Actual)

First Posted

The date on which the study record was first available on ClinicalTrials.gov after National Library of Medicine (NLM) quality control (QC) review has concluded. There is typically a delay of a few days between the date the study sponsor or investigator submitted the study record and the first posted date.
May 22, 2026

Study Record Updates

Last Update Posted (Actual)

Last Update Posted

The most recent date on which changes to a study record were made available on ClinicalTrials.gov. There may be a delay between when the changes were submitted to ClinicalTrials.gov by the study's sponsor or investigator (the last update submitted date) and the last update posted date.
May 22, 2026

Last Update Submitted That Met QC Criteria

Last Update Submitted That Met QC Criteria

The most recent date on which the study sponsor or investigator submitted changes to a study record that are consistent with National Library of Medicine (NLM) quality control (QC) review criteria. It is the responsibility of the sponsor or investigator to ensure that the study record is consistent with the NLM QC review criteria.
May 19, 2026

Last Verified

Last Verified

The most recent date on which the study sponsor or investigator confirmed the information about a clinical study on ClinicalTrials.gov as accurate and current. If a study with a recruitment status of recruiting; not yet recruiting; or active, not recruiting has not been confirmed within the past 2 years, the study's recruitment status is shown as unknown.
May 1, 2026

More Information

Terms related to this study

Keywords

Additional Relevant MeSH Terms

Other Study ID Numbers

Other Study ID Numbers

Identifiers or ID numbers other than the NCT number that are assigned to a clinical study by the study's sponsor, funders, or others. These numbers may include unique identifiers from other trial registries and National Institutes of Health grant numbers.
  • 22-37005
  • K23GM151611-03 (U.S. NIH Grant/Contract)

Plan for Individual participant data (IPD)

Plan to Share Individual Participant Data (IPD)?

NO

Drug and device information, study documents

Studies a U.S. FDA-regulated drug product

No

Studies a U.S. FDA-regulated device product

Yes

product manufactured in and exported from the U.S.

Yes

This information was retrieved directly from the website clinicaltrials.gov without any changes. If you have any requests to change, remove or update your study details, please contact register@clinicaltrials.gov. As soon as a change is implemented on clinicaltrials.gov, this will be updated automatically on our website as well.

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