Prediction of Chronic Disease Using Explainable Hybrid Machine Learning

October 5, 2026 updated by: Gülşen Taşkın, Afyonkarahisar Health Sciences University

Physical Activity and Lifestyle-Based Prediction of Chronic Disease Using Explainable Hybrid Machine Learning

In this study, a 28-item questionnaire developed by the researchers (Aysun Atacan and Gülşen Taşkın) will be used as the data collection tool. Since the intellectual property rights and developer identity belong to the researchers, there are no copyright or usage restrictions. Containing both qualitative and quantitative evaluation questions, the questionnaire consists of 5 main sections: personal information, daily life assessment, walking level assessment, household chores assessment, and work/workplace assessment. Eight of the questions cover sociodemographic information, while 20 focus on determining and evaluating physical activity levels in daily life, walking, home, work, and transportation. Participants are asked to answer the questions by considering their lifestyle over the past month. Based on these data-recorded according to how many days per week and how many minutes per day the activities are performed-calculations will be made by multiplying the MET value, frequency (days/week), and duration (minutes/day) to obtain the "MET-min/week" score. Participants will be categorized into three groups based on their total weekly MET expenditures: <600 MET-min/week as inactive, 600-3000 MET-min/week as minimally active, and >3000 MET-min/week as health-enhancing physically active (sufficiently active); and into groups based on their average daily step counts: <5000 as sedentary/inactive, 5001-7499 as low active, 7500-9999 as somewhat active, 10000-12499 as active, and >12500 as highly active. Chronic disease risk predictions will then be evaluated via machine learning based on these physical activity levels and step counts.

The primary aim of this research is to quantitatively demonstrate the impact of physical activity levels and lifestyle habits on chronic disease risk factors using machine learning (ML) methods. The models to be developed aim not only for high predictive performance but also for the clinical interpretation of which physical activity parameters are more decisive on disease risk, utilizing explainable artificial intelligence methods such as SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP). Consequently, the goal is to establish a decision support mechanism for the early detection of individuals at risk and to place personalized exercise prescriptions on a scientific foundation.

Study Overview

Status

Status

Indicates the current recruitment status or the expanded access status.
Active, not recruiting

Conditions

Conditions

The disease, disorder, syndrome, illness, or injury that is being studied. On ClinicalTrials.gov, conditions may also include other health-related issues, such as lifespan, quality of life, and health risks.

Study Type

Study Type

Describes the nature of a clinical study. Study types include interventional studies (also called clinical trials), observational studies (including patient registries), and expanded access.
Observational

Enrollment (Estimated)

Enrollment

The number of participants in a clinical study. The "anticipated" enrollment is the target number of participants that the researchers need for the study.
268

Contacts and Locations

This section provides the contact details for those conducting the study, and information on where this study is being conducted.

Study Locations

  • Turkey (Türkiye)
    • Merkez
      • Afyonkarahisar, Merkez, Turkey (Türkiye)
        • Afyonkarahisar Health Sciences University

Participation Criteria

Researchers look for people who fit a certain description, called eligibility criteria. Some examples of these criteria are a person's general health condition or prior treatments.

Eligibility Criteria

Eligibility Criteria

The key requirements that people who want to participate in a clinical study must meet or the characteristics they must have. Eligibility criteria consist of both inclusion criteria (which are required for a person to participate in the study) and exclusion criteria (which prevent a person from participating). Types of eligibility criteria include whether a study accepts healthy volunteers, has age or age group requirements, or is limited by sex.

Ages Eligible for Study

18 years to 64 years (Adult)

Accepts Healthy Volunteers

Yes

Genders Eligible for Study

All

Sampling Method

Probability Sample

Study Population

18-64 aged

Description

Inclusion Criteria:

  • Being aged between 18 and 64
  • Participating in the study voluntarily

Exclusion Criteria:

  • Not being aged between 18 and 64 Not agreeing to participate in the study

Study Plan

This section provides details of the study plan, including how the study is designed and what the study is measuring.

How is the study designed?

Design Details

  • Observational Models: OTHER
  • Time Perspectives: CROSS_SECTIONAL

What is the study measuring?

Primary Outcome Measures

Primary Outcome Measures

In a clinical study's protocol, the planned outcome measure that is the most important for evaluating the effect of an intervention/treatment. Most clinical studies have one primary outcome measure, but some have more than one.
Outcome Measure
Measure Description
Time Frame
hypothesis
Time Frame: Baseline

Estimation of the presence of chronic disease within an 85-95% confidence interval, based on physical activity and demographic data.
Baseline

Secondary Outcome Measures

Secondary Outcome Measures

In a clinical study's protocol, a planned outcome measure that is not as important as the primary outcome measure for evaluating the effect of an intervention but is still of interest. Most clinical studies have more than one secondary outcome measure.
Outcome Measure
Measure Description
Time Frame
hypothesis
Time Frame: Baseline

Identification of the most effective algorithm by comparing the sensitivity and specificity values of the developed models.
Baseline

Collaborators and Investigators

This is where you will find people and organizations involved with this study.

Sponsor

Sponsor

The organization or person who initiates the study and who has authority and control over the study.
Afyonkarahisar Health Sciences University

Study record dates

These dates track the progress of study record and summary results submissions to ClinicalTrials.gov. Study records and reported results are reviewed by the National Library of Medicine (NLM) to make sure they meet specific quality control standards before being posted on the public website.

Study Major Dates

Study Start (Actual)

Study Start

The actual date on which the first participant was enrolled in a clinical study. The "anticipated" study start date is the date that the researchers think will be the study start date.
August 30, 2026

Primary Completion (Estimated)

Primary Completion

The date on which the last participant in a clinical study was examined or received an intervention to collect final data for the primary outcome measure. Whether the clinical study ended according to the protocol or was terminated does not affect this date. For clinical studies with more than one primary outcome measure with different completion dates, this term refers to the date on which data collection is completed for all the primary outcome measures. The "anticipated" primary completion date is the date that the researchers think will be the primary completion date for the study.
November 30, 2026

Study Completion (Estimated)

Study Completion

The date on which the last participant in a clinical study was examined or received an intervention/treatment to collect final data for the primary outcome measures, secondary outcome measures, and adverse events (that is, the last participant's last visit). The "anticipated" study completion date is the date that the researchers think will be the study completion date.
December 31, 2026

Study Registration Dates

First Submitted

First Submitted

The date on which the study sponsor or investigator first submitted a study record to ClinicalTrials.gov. There is typically a delay of a few days between the first submitted date and the record's availability on ClinicalTrials.gov (the first posted date).
September 22, 2026

First Submitted That Met QC Criteria

First Submitted That Met QC Criteria

The date on which the study sponsor or investigator first submits a study record that is consistent with National Library of Medicine (NLM) quality control (QC) review criteria. The sponsor or investigator may need to revise and submit a study record one or more times before NLM's QC review criteria are met. It is the responsibility of the sponsor or investigator to ensure that the study record is consistent with the NLM QC review criteria.
September 22, 2026

First Posted (Actual)

First Posted

The date on which the study record was first available on ClinicalTrials.gov after National Library of Medicine (NLM) quality control (QC) review has concluded. There is typically a delay of a few days between the date the study sponsor or investigator submitted the study record and the first posted date.
September 28, 2026

Study Record Updates

Last Update Posted (Actual)

Last Update Posted

The most recent date on which changes to a study record were made available on ClinicalTrials.gov. There may be a delay between when the changes were submitted to ClinicalTrials.gov by the study's sponsor or investigator (the last update submitted date) and the last update posted date.
October 8, 2026

Last Update Submitted That Met QC Criteria

Last Update Submitted That Met QC Criteria

The most recent date on which the study sponsor or investigator submitted changes to a study record that are consistent with National Library of Medicine (NLM) quality control (QC) review criteria. It is the responsibility of the sponsor or investigator to ensure that the study record is consistent with the NLM QC review criteria.
October 5, 2026

Last Verified

Last Verified

The most recent date on which the study sponsor or investigator confirmed the information about a clinical study on ClinicalTrials.gov as accurate and current. If a study with a recruitment status of recruiting; not yet recruiting; or active, not recruiting has not been confirmed within the past 2 years, the study's recruitment status is shown as unknown.
October 1, 2026

More Information

Terms related to this study

Keywords

Additional Relevant MeSH Terms

Other Study ID Numbers

Other Study ID Numbers

Identifiers or ID numbers other than the NCT number that are assigned to a clinical study by the study's sponsor, funders, or others. These numbers may include unique identifiers from other trial registries and National Institutes of Health grant numbers.
  • 2026/495

Drug and device information, study documents

Studies a U.S. FDA-regulated drug product

No

Studies a U.S. FDA-regulated device product

No

This information was retrieved directly from the website clinicaltrials.gov without any changes. If you have any requests to change, remove or update your study details, please contact register@clinicaltrials.gov. As soon as a change is implemented on clinicaltrials.gov, this will be updated automatically on our website as well.

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