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Burn Mortality Prediction Scores (BURN-PRED)

1. července 2026 aktualizováno: Gaziantep City Hospital

Comparative Performance of ABSI, Revised Baux Score, and Modified Ryan Score for In-Hospital Mortality Prediction in Hospitalized Burn Admissions: A Retrospective Cohort Study

This retrospective observational cohort study evaluates hospitalized burn admissions treated at the Burn Center of Gaziantep City Hospital between October 2023 and February 2026. The study aims to compare the ability of three burn severity scoring systems, the Abbreviated Burn Severity Index (ABSI), Revised Baux score, and modified Ryan score, to predict in-hospital mortality.

Electronic medical records were reviewed for demographic characteristics, burn-related variables, inhalation injury, burn depth, intensive care admission, mechanical ventilation, sepsis, surgical procedures, length of hospital stay, and survival status at hospital discharge. The primary outcome is in-hospital mortality. The predictive performance of the scoring systems will be evaluated using receiver operating characteristic analysis and logistic regression.

Přehled studie

Postavení

Dokončeno

Podmínky

Intervence / Léčba

Detailní popis

Burn injuries are associated with substantial morbidity, mortality, intensive care use, prolonged hospitalization, and surgical burden. Early identification of patients at high risk of death may support clinical triage, intensive care planning, resource allocation, and communication with patients' families.

This study is a single-center, retrospective, observational cohort study conducted at the Burn Center of Gaziantep City Hospital, a tertiary referral burn center serving southern Türkiye and cross-border regions. The study includes hospitalized burn admissions treated between October 2023 and February 2026.

A total of 1315 burn admission records were screened. Admissions transferred to another facility before final clinical outcome assessment and admissions in which treatment was refused were excluded. After applying eligibility criteria, 1082 hospitalized burn admissions were included in the primary analysis cohort.

The study evaluates the prognostic performance of the Abbreviated Burn Severity Index (ABSI), Revised Baux score, and modified Ryan score for predicting in-hospital mortality. ABSI is calculated using age, sex, total body surface area burned, inhalation injury, and full-thickness burn status. Revised Baux score is calculated using age, total body surface area burned, and the presence of inhalation injury. The modified Ryan score is calculated using age category, total body surface area burned category, inhalation injury, and third-degree burn status.

The primary outcome is in-hospital mortality, defined as death occurring during the index hospitalization. Secondary evaluations include associations between mortality and selected clinical variables, including inhalation injury, sepsis, intensive care admission, mechanical ventilation, number of surgical procedures, and length of hospital stay.

The discriminative performance of prognostic scores will be assessed using receiver operating characteristic analysis. Area under the curve, confidence intervals, optimal cut-off values, sensitivity, and specificity will be reported. Associations between score increments and mortality will be examined using univariable logistic regression.

Typ studie

Pozorovací

Zápis (Aktuální)

1082

Kontakty a umístění

Tato část poskytuje kontaktní údaje pro ty, kteří studii provádějí, a informace o tom, kde se tato studie provádí.

Studijní místa

  • Turecko (Türkiye)
    • Gaziantep
      • Gaziantep, Gaziantep, Turecko (Türkiye), 27470
        • Gaziantep City Hospital Burn Center

Kritéria účasti

Výzkumníci hledají lidi, kteří odpovídají určitému popisu, kterému se říká kritéria způsobilosti. Některé příklady těchto kritérií jsou celkový zdravotní stav osoby nebo předchozí léčba.

Kritéria způsobilosti

Věk způsobilý ke studiu

  • Dítě
  • Dospělý
  • Starší dospělý

Přijímá zdravé dobrovolníky

Ne

Metoda odběru vzorků

Vzorek nepravděpodobnosti

Studijní populace

The study population consists of hospitalized burn admissions treated at the Burn Center of Gaziantep City Hospital, a tertiary referral burn center, between October 2023 and February 2026. The cohort includes burn admissions with documented in-hospital outcomes and sufficient electronic medical record data for calculation of ABSI, Revised Baux score, and modified Ryan score.

Popis

Inclusion Criteria: Hospitalized burn admissions treated at the Burn Center of Gaziantep City Hospital between October 2023 and February 2026.

Admissions with a documented in-hospital outcome of discharge alive or death. Admissions with available electronic medical records for age, sex, total body surface area burned, burn depth, inhalation injury, and core clinical variables.

Exclusion Criteria: Admissions transferred to another facility before final clinical outcome assessment.

Admissions in which treatment was refused. Admissions without sufficient electronic medical record data for calculation of the prognostic scores or assessment of the primary outcome.

Studijní plán

Tato část poskytuje podrobnosti o studijním plánu, včetně toho, jak je studie navržena a co studie měří.

Jak je studie koncipována?

Detaily designu

Kohorty a intervence

Skupina / kohorta
Intervence / Léčba
Hospitalized Burn Admissions
Hospitalized burn admissions treated at the Burn Center of Gaziantep City Hospital between October 2023 and February 2026 and included in the retrospective primary analysis cohort. Prognostic scores, including ABSI, Revised Baux score, and modified Ryan score, were calculated from routinely recorded electronic medical data. No intervention was assigned by the study protocol.
Jiný: Retrospective Prognostic Score Assessment
ABSI, Revised Baux score, and modified Ryan score were retrospectively calculated using routinely collected electronic medical record data from hospitalized burn admissions. These scores were evaluated for their ability to predict in-hospital mortality. No drug, device, procedure, or treatment intervention was assigned by the study protocol.
Ostatní jména:
  • ABSI
  • Revised Baux score
  • Modified Ryan score

Co je měření studie?

Primární výstupní opatření

Měření výsledku
Popis opatření
Časové okno
In-Hospital Mortality
Časové okno: From hospital admission to hospital discharge or in-hospital death, assessed up to 240 days.
In-hospital mortality was defined as death occurring during the index hospitalization for burn injury. Mortality status was determined from electronic hospital records and was used as the primary outcome for evaluating the prognostic performance of burn severity scoring systems.
From hospital admission to hospital discharge or in-hospital death, assessed up to 240 days.

Sekundární výstupní opatření

Měření výsledku
Popis opatření
Časové okno
Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve for the Abbreviated Burn Severity Index
Časové okno: Score variables were obtained from admission and early hospitalization records; in-hospital mortality was assessed from hospital admission to discharge or in-hospital death, up to 240 days.
The Abbreviated Burn Severity Index was calculated using age, sex, total body surface area burned, inhalation injury, and full-thickness burn status recorded in electronic hospital records. Higher scores indicate greater burn severity and higher predicted mortality risk. Predictive discrimination for in-hospital mortality was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. The area under the curve ranges from 0.0 to 1.0, with higher values indicating better discriminative performance.
Score variables were obtained from admission and early hospitalization records; in-hospital mortality was assessed from hospital admission to discharge or in-hospital death, up to 240 days.
Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve for the Revised Baux Score
Časové okno: Score variables were obtained from admission and early hospitalization records; in-hospital mortality was assessed from hospital admission to discharge or in-hospital death, up to 240 days.
The Revised Baux score was calculated using age, total body surface area burned, and the presence of inhalation injury. Higher scores indicate greater burn severity and higher predicted mortality risk. Predictive discrimination for in-hospital mortality was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. The area under the curve ranges from 0.0 to 1.0, with higher values indicating better discriminative performance.
Score variables were obtained from admission and early hospitalization records; in-hospital mortality was assessed from hospital admission to discharge or in-hospital death, up to 240 days.
Predictive Performance of the Modified Ryan Score
Časové okno: Score variables were obtained from admission and early hospitalization records; in-hospital mortality was assessed from hospital admission to discharge or in-hospital death, up to 240 days.
The predictive performance of the modified Ryan score for in-hospital mortality was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic analysis. Area under the curve, 95% confidence interval, optimal cut-off value, sensitivity, and specificity were calculated.
Score variables were obtained from admission and early hospitalization records; in-hospital mortality was assessed from hospital admission to discharge or in-hospital death, up to 240 days.
Association of Selected Clinical Factors With In-Hospital Mortality
Časové okno: Clinical factors and mortality status were assessed from hospital admission to hospital discharge or in-hospital death, up to 240 days.
The association of selected clinical factors, including inhalation injury, sepsis, intensive care admission, mechanical ventilation, number of surgical procedures, and length of hospital stay, with in-hospital mortality was evaluated using appropriate statistical analyses.
Clinical factors and mortality status were assessed from hospital admission to hospital discharge or in-hospital death, up to 240 days.

Spolupracovníci a vyšetřovatelé

Zde najdete lidi a organizace zapojené do této studie.

Sponzor

Gaziantep City Hospital

Vyšetřovatelé

  • Vrchní vyšetřovatel: Bekir Suat Kurkcuoglu, Gaziantep City Hospital

Publikace a užitečné odkazy

Osoba odpovědná za zadávání informací o studiu tyto publikace poskytuje dobrovolně. Mohou se týkat čehokoli, co souvisí se studiem.

Obecné publikace

Termíny studijních záznamů

Tato data sledují průběh záznamů studie a předkládání souhrnných výsledků na ClinicalTrials.gov. Záznamy ze studií a hlášené výsledky jsou před zveřejněním na veřejné webové stránce přezkoumány Národní lékařskou knihovnou (NLM), aby se ujistily, že splňují specifické standardy kontroly kvality.

Hlavní termíny studia

Začátek studia (Aktuální)

7. října 2023

Primární dokončení (Aktuální)

28. února 2026

Dokončení studie (Aktuální)

28. února 2026

Termíny zápisu do studia

První předloženo

22. června 2026

První předloženo, které splnilo kritéria kontroly kvality

1. července 2026

První zveřejněno (Aktuální)

8. července 2026

Aktualizace studijních záznamů

Poslední zveřejněná aktualizace (Aktuální)

8. července 2026

Odeslaná poslední aktualizace, která splnila kritéria kontroly kvality

1. července 2026

Naposledy ověřeno

1. června 2026

Více informací

Termíny související s touto studií

Klíčová slova

Další relevantní podmínky MeSH

Další identifikační čísla studie

  • GCH-BURN-SCORES-2026

Plán pro data jednotlivých účastníků (IPD)

Plánujete sdílet data jednotlivých účastníků (IPD)?

NE

Informace o lécích a zařízeních, studijní dokumenty

Studuje lékový produkt regulovaný americkým FDA

Ne

Studuje produkt zařízení regulovaný americkým úřadem FDA

Ne

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