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Burn Mortality Prediction Scores (BURN-PRED)

1 luglio 2026 aggiornato da: Gaziantep City Hospital

Comparative Performance of ABSI, Revised Baux Score, and Modified Ryan Score for In-Hospital Mortality Prediction in Hospitalized Burn Admissions: A Retrospective Cohort Study

This retrospective observational cohort study evaluates hospitalized burn admissions treated at the Burn Center of Gaziantep City Hospital between October 2023 and February 2026. The study aims to compare the ability of three burn severity scoring systems, the Abbreviated Burn Severity Index (ABSI), Revised Baux score, and modified Ryan score, to predict in-hospital mortality.

Electronic medical records were reviewed for demographic characteristics, burn-related variables, inhalation injury, burn depth, intensive care admission, mechanical ventilation, sepsis, surgical procedures, length of hospital stay, and survival status at hospital discharge. The primary outcome is in-hospital mortality. The predictive performance of the scoring systems will be evaluated using receiver operating characteristic analysis and logistic regression.

Panoramica dello studio

Stato

Completato

Condizioni

Intervento / Trattamento

Descrizione dettagliata

Burn injuries are associated with substantial morbidity, mortality, intensive care use, prolonged hospitalization, and surgical burden. Early identification of patients at high risk of death may support clinical triage, intensive care planning, resource allocation, and communication with patients' families.

This study is a single-center, retrospective, observational cohort study conducted at the Burn Center of Gaziantep City Hospital, a tertiary referral burn center serving southern Türkiye and cross-border regions. The study includes hospitalized burn admissions treated between October 2023 and February 2026.

A total of 1315 burn admission records were screened. Admissions transferred to another facility before final clinical outcome assessment and admissions in which treatment was refused were excluded. After applying eligibility criteria, 1082 hospitalized burn admissions were included in the primary analysis cohort.

The study evaluates the prognostic performance of the Abbreviated Burn Severity Index (ABSI), Revised Baux score, and modified Ryan score for predicting in-hospital mortality. ABSI is calculated using age, sex, total body surface area burned, inhalation injury, and full-thickness burn status. Revised Baux score is calculated using age, total body surface area burned, and the presence of inhalation injury. The modified Ryan score is calculated using age category, total body surface area burned category, inhalation injury, and third-degree burn status.

The primary outcome is in-hospital mortality, defined as death occurring during the index hospitalization. Secondary evaluations include associations between mortality and selected clinical variables, including inhalation injury, sepsis, intensive care admission, mechanical ventilation, number of surgical procedures, and length of hospital stay.

The discriminative performance of prognostic scores will be assessed using receiver operating characteristic analysis. Area under the curve, confidence intervals, optimal cut-off values, sensitivity, and specificity will be reported. Associations between score increments and mortality will be examined using univariable logistic regression.

Tipo di studio

Osservativo

Iscrizione (Effettivo)

1082

Contatti e Sedi

Questa sezione fornisce i recapiti di coloro che conducono lo studio e informazioni su dove viene condotto lo studio.

Luoghi di studio

  • Turchia (Türkiye)
    • Gaziantep
      • Gaziantep, Gaziantep, Turchia (Türkiye), 27470
        • Gaziantep City Hospital Burn Center

Criteri di partecipazione

I ricercatori cercano persone che corrispondano a una certa descrizione, chiamata criteri di ammissibilità. Alcuni esempi di questi criteri sono le condizioni generali di salute di una persona o trattamenti precedenti.

Criteri di ammissibilità

Età idonea allo studio

  • Bambino
  • Adulto
  • Adulto più anziano

Accetta volontari sani

No

Metodo di campionamento

Campione non probabilistico

Popolazione di studio

The study population consists of hospitalized burn admissions treated at the Burn Center of Gaziantep City Hospital, a tertiary referral burn center, between October 2023 and February 2026. The cohort includes burn admissions with documented in-hospital outcomes and sufficient electronic medical record data for calculation of ABSI, Revised Baux score, and modified Ryan score.

Descrizione

Inclusion Criteria: Hospitalized burn admissions treated at the Burn Center of Gaziantep City Hospital between October 2023 and February 2026.

Admissions with a documented in-hospital outcome of discharge alive or death. Admissions with available electronic medical records for age, sex, total body surface area burned, burn depth, inhalation injury, and core clinical variables.

Exclusion Criteria: Admissions transferred to another facility before final clinical outcome assessment.

Admissions in which treatment was refused. Admissions without sufficient electronic medical record data for calculation of the prognostic scores or assessment of the primary outcome.

Piano di studio

Questa sezione fornisce i dettagli del piano di studio, compreso il modo in cui lo studio è progettato e ciò che lo studio sta misurando.

Come è strutturato lo studio?

Dettagli di progettazione

Coorti e interventi

Gruppo / Coorte
Intervento / Trattamento
Hospitalized Burn Admissions
Hospitalized burn admissions treated at the Burn Center of Gaziantep City Hospital between October 2023 and February 2026 and included in the retrospective primary analysis cohort. Prognostic scores, including ABSI, Revised Baux score, and modified Ryan score, were calculated from routinely recorded electronic medical data. No intervention was assigned by the study protocol.
Altro: Retrospective Prognostic Score Assessment
ABSI, Revised Baux score, and modified Ryan score were retrospectively calculated using routinely collected electronic medical record data from hospitalized burn admissions. These scores were evaluated for their ability to predict in-hospital mortality. No drug, device, procedure, or treatment intervention was assigned by the study protocol.
Altri nomi:
  • ABSI
  • Revised Baux score
  • Modified Ryan score

Cosa sta misurando lo studio?

Misure di risultato primarie

Misura del risultato
Misura Descrizione
Lasso di tempo
In-Hospital Mortality
Lasso di tempo: From hospital admission to hospital discharge or in-hospital death, assessed up to 240 days.
In-hospital mortality was defined as death occurring during the index hospitalization for burn injury. Mortality status was determined from electronic hospital records and was used as the primary outcome for evaluating the prognostic performance of burn severity scoring systems.
From hospital admission to hospital discharge or in-hospital death, assessed up to 240 days.

Misure di risultato secondarie

Misura del risultato
Misura Descrizione
Lasso di tempo
Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve for the Abbreviated Burn Severity Index
Lasso di tempo: Score variables were obtained from admission and early hospitalization records; in-hospital mortality was assessed from hospital admission to discharge or in-hospital death, up to 240 days.
The Abbreviated Burn Severity Index was calculated using age, sex, total body surface area burned, inhalation injury, and full-thickness burn status recorded in electronic hospital records. Higher scores indicate greater burn severity and higher predicted mortality risk. Predictive discrimination for in-hospital mortality was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. The area under the curve ranges from 0.0 to 1.0, with higher values indicating better discriminative performance.
Score variables were obtained from admission and early hospitalization records; in-hospital mortality was assessed from hospital admission to discharge or in-hospital death, up to 240 days.
Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve for the Revised Baux Score
Lasso di tempo: Score variables were obtained from admission and early hospitalization records; in-hospital mortality was assessed from hospital admission to discharge or in-hospital death, up to 240 days.
The Revised Baux score was calculated using age, total body surface area burned, and the presence of inhalation injury. Higher scores indicate greater burn severity and higher predicted mortality risk. Predictive discrimination for in-hospital mortality was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. The area under the curve ranges from 0.0 to 1.0, with higher values indicating better discriminative performance.
Score variables were obtained from admission and early hospitalization records; in-hospital mortality was assessed from hospital admission to discharge or in-hospital death, up to 240 days.
Predictive Performance of the Modified Ryan Score
Lasso di tempo: Score variables were obtained from admission and early hospitalization records; in-hospital mortality was assessed from hospital admission to discharge or in-hospital death, up to 240 days.
The predictive performance of the modified Ryan score for in-hospital mortality was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic analysis. Area under the curve, 95% confidence interval, optimal cut-off value, sensitivity, and specificity were calculated.
Score variables were obtained from admission and early hospitalization records; in-hospital mortality was assessed from hospital admission to discharge or in-hospital death, up to 240 days.
Association of Selected Clinical Factors With In-Hospital Mortality
Lasso di tempo: Clinical factors and mortality status were assessed from hospital admission to hospital discharge or in-hospital death, up to 240 days.
The association of selected clinical factors, including inhalation injury, sepsis, intensive care admission, mechanical ventilation, number of surgical procedures, and length of hospital stay, with in-hospital mortality was evaluated using appropriate statistical analyses.
Clinical factors and mortality status were assessed from hospital admission to hospital discharge or in-hospital death, up to 240 days.

Collaboratori e investigatori

Qui è dove troverai le persone e le organizzazioni coinvolte in questo studio.

Sponsor

Gaziantep City Hospital

Investigatori

  • Investigatore principale: Bekir Suat Kurkcuoglu, Gaziantep City Hospital

Pubblicazioni e link utili

La persona responsabile dell'inserimento delle informazioni sullo studio fornisce volontariamente queste pubblicazioni. Questi possono riguardare qualsiasi cosa relativa allo studio.

Pubblicazioni generali

Studiare le date dei record

Queste date tengono traccia dell'avanzamento della registrazione dello studio e dell'invio dei risultati di sintesi a ClinicalTrials.gov. I record degli studi e i risultati riportati vengono esaminati dalla National Library of Medicine (NLM) per assicurarsi che soddisfino specifici standard di controllo della qualità prima di essere pubblicati sul sito Web pubblico.

Studia le date principali

Inizio studio (Effettivo)

7 ottobre 2023

Completamento primario (Effettivo)

28 febbraio 2026

Completamento dello studio (Effettivo)

28 febbraio 2026

Date di iscrizione allo studio

Primo inviato

22 giugno 2026

Primo inviato che soddisfa i criteri di controllo qualità

1 luglio 2026

Primo Inserito (Effettivo)

8 luglio 2026

Aggiornamenti dei record di studio

Ultimo aggiornamento pubblicato (Effettivo)

8 luglio 2026

Ultimo aggiornamento inviato che soddisfa i criteri QC

1 luglio 2026

Ultimo verificato

1 giugno 2026

Maggiori informazioni

Termini relativi a questo studio

Parole chiave

Termini MeSH pertinenti aggiuntivi

Altri numeri di identificazione dello studio

  • GCH-BURN-SCORES-2026

Piano per i dati dei singoli partecipanti (IPD)

Hai intenzione di condividere i dati dei singoli partecipanti (IPD)?

NO

Informazioni su farmaci e dispositivi, documenti di studio

Studia un prodotto farmaceutico regolamentato dalla FDA degli Stati Uniti

No

Studia un dispositivo regolamentato dalla FDA degli Stati Uniti

No

Queste informazioni sono state recuperate direttamente dal sito web clinicaltrials.gov senza alcuna modifica. In caso di richieste di modifica, rimozione o aggiornamento dei dettagli dello studio, contattare register@clinicaltrials.gov. Non appena verrà implementata una modifica su clinicaltrials.gov, questa verrà aggiornata automaticamente anche sul nostro sito web .

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