Advancing Precision Lung Cancer Surveillance and Outcomes in Diverse Populations (PLuS2)
Protocol for an Observational Cohort Study Integrating Real-World Data and Microsimulation to Assess Imaging Surveillance Strategies in Stage I-IIIA NSCLC Patients in OneFlorida+
This observational study evaluates the effectiveness of computed tomography (CT) imaging surveillance after curative-intent treatment for stage I-IIIA non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) in a diverse U.S. population.
The main questions are:
How do CT surveillance use and adherence vary by race, ethnicity, and socioeconomic status?
Does semi-annual CT surveillance improve outcomes compared with annual surveillance?
Adults ages 20-90 with stage I-IIIA NSCLC treated between 2012 and 2026 will be identified using OneFlorida+ electronic health records, tumor registry data, claims, and clinical notes. Patients will be followed for up to five years after curative-intent therapy to evaluate surveillance patterns, recurrence, second primary lung cancers, complications, and survival.
Study Overview
Status
Status
Conditions
Conditions
Detailed Description
This study, Advancing Precision Lung Cancer Surveillance and Outcomes in Diverse Populations (PLuS2), is an observational cohort study designed to evaluate real-world computed tomography (CT) imaging surveillance strategies following curative-intent treatment for early-stage non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). The study uses existing clinical data and does not assign interventions.
The study population includes adults ages 20-90 with pathologically confirmed stage I-IIIA NSCLC who completed curative-intent therapy. Patients treated between 2012 and 2026 will be identified within the OneFlorida+ Clinical Research Consortium and followed for up to five years after treatment to assess surveillance patterns and outcomes.
UF Health serves as the data coordinating site in collaboration with the OneFlorida+ Data Trust. Data sources include structured electronic health records, tumor registry data, selected claims, and unstructured clinical notes. Data extraction and cohort identification are conducted centrally using standardized definitions aligned with the PCORnet Common Data Model.
The primary objectives of the study are to:
- Describe utilization and adherence to guideline-recommended CT surveillance and evaluate determinants of use by race, ethnicity, socioeconomic status, and clinical factors.
- Compare recurrence, second primary lung cancers, complications, and survival among patients undergoing semi-annual versus annual CT surveillance.
- Use observational findings to inform microsimulation models that project long-term outcomes under alternative surveillance strategies.
Clinical natural language processing (NLP) methods are used to classify CT scans as routine surveillance versus symptom-directed diagnostic imaging and to extract recurrence indicators, smoking history, and selected social determinants of health from unstructured clinical notes. NLP outputs are integrated with structured data to improve classification accuracy and completeness.
Quality assurance procedures include automated checks for completeness, range, and internal consistency, validation against source EHR and tumor registry records, and maintenance of a standardized data dictionary defining all variables and coding systems. Standard operating procedures govern cohort assembly, quarterly data refreshes, data management, analysis, and reporting.
The expected cohort size is approximately 1,700 patients, providing sufficient power to evaluate surveillance utilization patterns and outcome differences by surveillance interval. Missing data will be addressed using multiple imputation and sensitivity analyses.
Statistical analyses include descriptive methods, multivariable and mixed-effects regression models, and time-to-event and competing-risk analyses. Results from the observational analyses will be used as inputs for microsimulation modeling to estimate long-term population-level outcomes associated with different CT surveillance strategies.
Study Type
Study Type
Enrollment (Actual)
Enrollment
Contacts and Locations
Study Locations
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Florida
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Gainesville, Florida, United States, 32610
- University of Florida College of Medicine
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Participation Criteria
Eligibility Criteria
Eligibility Criteria
Ages Eligible for Study
- Child
- Adult
- Older Adult
Accepts Healthy Volunteers
Sampling Method
Study Population
Description
Inclusion Criteria:
- Adults diagnosed with primary, pathologically confirmed stage I-IIIA non- small cell lung cancer (NSCLC).
- Received curative-intent therapy, including:
Surgical resection, or Stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT), with or without adjuvant therapy.
- Completed curative-intent therapy and survived at least 5 months after therapy initiation.
- Received care within the University of Florida (Gainesville or Jacksonville) health system, and are included in the OneFlorida+ clinical data network.
- Have available:
Structured EHR data (including tumor registry linkage, imaging, procedures, and vital statistics), and Unstructured clinical documents (clinic notes, radiology reports, pathology reports) enable NLP extraction.
- Have ≥1 follow-up encounter in the EHR after treatment completion to allow surveillance assessment.
Exclusion Criteria:
- Histology other than NSCLC, including:
Small-cell lung cancer Carcinoid tumors Rare non-NSCLC primary tumors
- Metastatic disease (stage IV) at diagnosis.
- No curative-intent therapy received (e.g., palliative treatment only).
- Patients with incomplete treatment records prevent the determination of the treatment completion date.
- Patients with no surveillance-relevant follow-up data, including:
No post-treatment clinical notes No radiology/pathology records No linked tumor registry or vital status data
- Patients with recurrence or who die within the first 5 months after starting curative-intent therapy (insufficient window for guideline-defined surveillance).
- Patients with missing identifiers prevent linkage to cancer registries or the death index.
- Individuals whose imaging cannot be classified as surveillance vs. diagnostic due to the absence of relevant structured or unstructured data.
Study Plan
How is the study designed?
Design Details
Number of groups / cohorts
Cohorts and Interventions
Group / CohortGroup / Cohort |
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Target population includes confirmed stage I-IIIA NSCLC patients within the OneFlorida+ Consortium
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What is the study measuring?
Primary Outcome Measures
Primary Outcome Measures
Outcome Measure |
Measure Description |
Time Frame |
|---|---|---|
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Guideline Adherence to Chest CT Surveillance
Time Frame: Up to 5 years after treatment completion
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Proportion of patients who complete guideline-recommended post-treatment chest CT surveillance within prespecified rolling surveillance windows.
Guideline adherence will be defined using ±1-month and ±2-month allowable windows around each recommended surveillance time point.
Semi-annual surveillance (Years 0-2) will be assessed at recommended months 6, 12, 18, and 24, with adherence defined as completing a CT within months 5-7 or 4-8, 11-13 or 10-14, 17-19 or 16-20, and 23-25 or 22-26, respectively.
Annual surveillance (Years 3-5) will be assessed at recommended months 36, 48, and 60, with adherence defined as completing a CT within months 35-37 or 34-38, 47-49 or 46-50, and 59-61 or 58-62, respectively.
Patients will be censored at recurrence, death, loss to follow-up, or end of study.
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Up to 5 years after treatment completion
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Annual Rates of Guideline-Concordant Surveillance CT Imaging during post-treatment Years 1-5.
Time Frame: Year-specific rates are assessed annually for up to 5 years post-treatment.
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Surveillance begins at completion of curative-intent therapy (surgery or SBRT ± adjuvant therapy), and only routine surveillance scans are included.
In Years 1-2, surveillance is guideline-concordant if CTs are completed within rolling 4-8-month intervals following either treatment completion or the prior surveillance CT.
In Years 3-5, surveillance is guideline-concordant if CTs occur within rolling 10-14-month intervals from the prior CT.
Patients are censored at recurrence, death, loss to follow-up, or end of study period.
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Year-specific rates are assessed annually for up to 5 years post-treatment.
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Time to First Recurrence
Time Frame: Up to 5 years post-treatment.
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Time from completion of curative-intent therapy to the first documented cancer recurrence (local, regional, or distant).
Recurrence will be identified using structured electronic health records (EHR) recurrence fields, validated recurrence-detection algorithms, cancer registry linkage, and natural language processing (NLP) based extraction from radiology reports and clinical notes.
Patients will be censored at death without recurrence, loss to follow-up, or completion of 5-year follow-up.
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Up to 5 years post-treatment.
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Time to Second Primary Lung Cancer (SPLC)
Time Frame: Up to 5 years or end of follow up
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Time from completion of curative-intent therapy to diagnosis of a metachronous second primary lung cancer (SPLC).
SPLC will be defined using standard criteria, including AJCC TNM staging, histologic distinction from the index tumor, cancer registry confirmation, and pathology report verification.
Among patients who develop SPLC, we will evaluate stage at SPLC diagnosis, histologic subtype (including bronchioloalveolar carcinoma), and receipt of adjuvant therapy.
Patients will be censored at death without SPLC, recurrence without SPLC, or completion of follow-up.
This outcome will be analyzed as a time-to-event measure consistent with other survival endpoints.
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Up to 5 years or end of follow up
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All-cause mortality
Time Frame: Up to 5 years post-treatment (or longest available follow-up).
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Time from completion of curative intent treatment to death from any cause.
Vital status will be ascertained through institutional cancer registries, the National Death Index, and state death certificate data.
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Up to 5 years post-treatment (or longest available follow-up).
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Lung Cancer-Specific Mortality
Time Frame: Up to 5 years following treatment completion.
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Time from completion of curative-intent treatment to death attributed specifically to lung cancer, analyzed under a competing-risk framework in which non-lung cancer deaths are treated as competing events.
Cause of death will be determined using institutional cancer registry data and National Death Index linkage.
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Up to 5 years following treatment completion.
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Mode of Recurrence Detection
Time Frame: Assessed at the time of recurrence, up to 5 years following treatment completion.
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Classification of recurrence mode at the time of first recurrence. Recurrences will be categorized as:
Detection mode will be determined using electronic health record (EHR) documentation and natural language processing (NLP) extraction from radiology reports and clinical notes. Timing of recurrence (time to event) will be evaluated separately; early vs. later surveillance detection will be described, but has no clinical implications if timing windows shift. |
Assessed at the time of recurrence, up to 5 years following treatment completion.
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Type of SPLC Detection
Time Frame: At SPLC diagnosis (≤5 years following treatment completion).
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Classification of metachronous second primary lung cancer (SPLC) as either: Surveillance-detected: Identified during routine surveillance CT imaging in asymptomatic patients. Symptom-detected: Identified after new or worsening symptoms prompted diagnostic evaluation. Detection mode will be determined using EHR documentation and NLP extraction from radiology reports and clinical notes. |
At SPLC diagnosis (≤5 years following treatment completion).
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Model-Projected Long-Term Survival Under Alternative Surveillance Strategies
Time Frame: At 5 years, 10 years, and over the model-projected lifetime horizon after the index surveillance decision
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Microsimulation-projected overall and lung cancer-specific survival under semi-annual versus annual CT surveillance schedules. The model will be calibrated using recurrence, SPLC, and mortality data from Aims 1-2 and extrapolated to national incidence patterns using SEER data. Measure Description: Difference in projected survival outcomes between semi-annual and annual surveillance strategies, reported as:
Model estimates will be derived from a calibrated Markov microsimulation model informed by Aims 1-2 and extrapolated using SEER incidence. |
At 5 years, 10 years, and over the model-projected lifetime horizon after the index surveillance decision
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Secondary Outcome Measures
Secondary Outcome Measures
Outcome Measure |
Measure Description |
Time Frame |
|---|---|---|
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CT Surveillance Pattern Classification (0-5 Years)
Time Frame: 0-5 years post treatment
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Patients will be categorized into one of four mutually exclusive surveillance patterns based on completed post-treatment surveillance CT imaging from 0-5 years following curative intent therapy:
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0-5 years post treatment
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CT Surveillance Utilization Rate
Time Frame: Up to 5 years post treatment
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Intensity of surveillance CT use, measured as scans per person time and/or completion of guideline-recommended surveillance intervals
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Up to 5 years post treatment
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False Positive Surveillance CT Results
Time Frame: Up to 5 years
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Surveillance CT scans that trigger additional diagnostic evaluation (biopsy, PET CT, or repeat imaging) without a lung cancer diagnosis (recurrence or SPLC) within 6 months of the index scan.
Results will be classified as true positive, false positive, true negative, or false negative using cancer registry data and EHR documentation
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Up to 5 years
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Downstream Diagnostic Procedures After Surveillance CT
Time Frame: Up to 5 years following treatment completion
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Frequency and type of diagnostic procedures, both invasive and non-invasive, performed following surveillance CT imaging, including transthoracic biopsy, transbronchial biopsy, bronchoscopy, and PET-CT.
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Up to 5 years following treatment completion
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Procedure Related Complications
Time Frame: Up to 5 years following treatment completion
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Complications occurring within 7 days and 30 days of invasive diagnostic procedures (transthoracic, transbronchial, or surgical biopsies), including:
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Up to 5 years following treatment completion
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Recurrence Site / Pattern (Registry Based)
Time Frame: At recurrence (≤5 years)
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Classification of recurrence site as local, regional, or distant, based on cancer registry definitions.
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At recurrence (≤5 years)
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Receipt of Treatment Following Recurrence or SPLC
Time Frame: At recurrence or SPLC diagnosis (≤5 years)
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Time to treatment initiation following recurrence or SPLC diagnosis, and classification of treatment modality, including surgery, SBRT, targeted therapy, and immune checkpoint inhibitor therapy.
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At recurrence or SPLC diagnosis (≤5 years)
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Other Outcome Measures
Other Outcome Measures
Outcome Measure |
Measure Description |
Time Frame |
|---|---|---|
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Model Projected Recurrence/SPLC Detection Timing and Mode
Time Frame: From the index surveillance decision through the model-projected lifetime horizon (5 years, 10 years)
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Model estimated timing of recurrence and SPLC detectability and symptom onset, and projected proportion detected through surveillance imaging versus symptom-prompted evaluation under alternative surveillance strategies. Measure Description: Projected distributions of:
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From the index surveillance decision through the model-projected lifetime horizon (5 years, 10 years)
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Model Projected Population Impact Under Varying Surveillance Uptake
Time Frame: Over the model-projected lifetime horizon after the index surveillance decision (5 years, 10 years)
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Sensitivity analyses evaluating population-level outcomes under varying surveillance uptake levels (e.g., 50%, 70%, 90% adherence), including projected lung cancer deaths averted, earlier detection, false positive CTs, and downstream diagnostic complications. Measure Description: Projected population impacts under alternative surveillance schedules and uptake levels, including:
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Over the model-projected lifetime horizon after the index surveillance decision (5 years, 10 years)
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Collaborators and Investigators
Sponsor
Sponsor
Collaborators
Collaborators
Study record dates
Study Major Dates
Study Start (Actual)
Study Start
Primary Completion (Estimated)
Primary Completion
Study Completion (Estimated)
Study Completion
Study Registration Dates
First Submitted
First Submitted
First Submitted That Met QC Criteria
First Submitted That Met QC Criteria
First Posted (Actual)
First Posted
Study Record Updates
Last Update Posted (Actual)
Last Update Posted
Last Update Submitted That Met QC Criteria
Last Update Submitted That Met QC Criteria
Last Verified
Last Verified
More Information
Terms related to this study
Keywords
Additional Relevant MeSH Terms
Other Study ID Numbers
Other Study ID Numbers
- IRB202300782
- R01CA284646 (U.S. NIH Grant/Contract)
Plan for Individual participant data (IPD)
Plan to Share Individual Participant Data (IPD)?
Drug and device information, study documents
Studies a U.S. FDA-regulated drug product
Studies a U.S. FDA-regulated device product
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