Postoperative Circulating Tumor DNA Monitoring in Stage I-III Driver-Mutant Colon Adenocarcinoma (ADX-DRIVER-CRC)

August 29, 2026 updated by: Zhao Ren, Ruijin Hospital

Multicenter Prospective Cohort Study of Molecular Residual Disease (MRD) in Stage I-III Surgically Resectable Colon Adenocarcinoma Harboring Oncogenic Driver Mutations

This multicenter prospective observational cohort study will enroll 392 patients with stage I-III colon adenocarcinoma who undergo curative resection and whose tumors harbor at least one prespecified oncogenic driver mutation (KRAS, NRAS, BRAF, or PIK3CA). Serial plasma circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) testing for molecular residual disease (MRD) will be performed with a standardized 10-gene next-generation sequencing (NGS) panel at predefined time points during 3 years of postoperative follow-up. The primary objective is to evaluate the association between postoperative ctDNA-based MRD status and recurrence-free survival (RFS). Secondary objectives include evaluating overall survival (OS), the interval between first MRD detection and radiologically confirmed recurrence, and the association between longitudinal MRD changes and outcomes following adjuvant chemotherapy.

Study Overview

Status

Recruiting

Conditions

Intervention / Treatment

Detailed Description

Background Colorectal cancer (CRC) ranks the 3rd most common malignancy worldwide and the 2nd leading cause of cancer death. In China, CRC incidence and mortality keep rapidly rising, with ~517,000 new cases and ~240,000 deaths annually. Radical resection is the curative standard for stage I-III CRC, yet postoperative recurrence reaches 20%-40% even after microscopically margin-negative (R0) resection. Traditional tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) staging and clinicopathological features fail to precisely stratify recurrence risk within the same stage, lacking capacity for early, real-time recurrence surveillance. Oncogenic driver mutations (KRAS, NRAS, BRAF, PIK3CA) dominate colorectal tumorigenesis and correlate with higher recurrence risk and worse prognosis, but static mutation status cannot reflect dynamic postoperative residual tumor burden. Circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA)-based molecular residual disease (MRD) enables non-invasive early detection of microscopic residual tumor, predicting recurrence months prior to radiological abnormalities, with strong prognostic value validated by multiple landmark trials. However, nearly all existing MRD cohorts lack stratification by driver mutation status; large-scale prospective multicenter data focusing exclusively on driver-mutant stage I-III colon adenocarcinoma are absent globally. This study fills the clinical gap by combining driver genotyping and longitudinal ctDNA-based MRD surveillance.

Scientific Hypothesis In patients with driver-mutant stage I-III resectable colon adenocarcinoma, postoperative ctDNA-based MRD status acts as an independent prognostic biomarker for recurrence regardless of conventional clinicopathological factors. Dynamic serial MRD shifts can alert tumor relapse earlier than routine contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CT), and different driver mutation subtypes demonstrate heterogeneous MRD detectability and predictive efficacy. Persistent MRD positivity predicts high recurrence risk, while sustained MRD negativity indicates excellent prognosis and potential de-escalation of adjuvant chemotherapy.

Study Design & Procedures A total of 10 tertiary hospitals with colorectal surgery and molecular pathology capacity will consecutively enroll eligible patients within 1 year. All participants receive standardized perioperative and follow-up care per clinical guidelines without study-mandated intervention modification. Serial peripheral blood samples (20 mL per draw) are collected at fixed time points: pre-operation (T0, baseline), postoperative day 7±2 (T1), 1 month post-surgery before adjuvant chemotherapy (T2), every 3 months up to 12 months (T3-T6), every 6 months at 18/24 months (T7-T8), and 36 months post-operation (T9). ctDNA-based MRD testing is performed centrally by Amoy Diagnostics using a fixed 10-gene next-generation sequencing (NGS) panel covering all core CRC driver mutations, sequencing depth ≥100,000×. MRD positivity is defined as detection of any tumor-derived driver mutation in plasma at any postoperative time point. All patients receive standardized 3-year follow-up: physical exam + tumor markers every 3 months in year 1; every 6 months in year 2; annual follow-up in year 3. Contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CT) of the chest, abdomen, and pelvis is conducted every 6 months, colonoscopy at 12, 24 and 36 months postoperatively. All recurrence events are adjudicated by an blinded independent central review (BICR).

Statistical Plan Primary analysis uses Kaplan-Meier curves and log-rank test to compare RFS between MRD-positive and MRD-negative groups; multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression adjusts for age, sex, TNM stage, differentiation grade, adjuvant chemotherapy regimen and driver mutation subtype to confirm MRD as independent prognostic factor. Secondary endpoints including OS, 1- and 2-year RFS rates, median lead time of MRD ahead of radiological recurrence are analyzed via survival statistics. All statistical tests are two-sided with α=0.05, analyzed using R 4.3.0 and SPSS software. Sample size calculation accounts for 20% dropout rate, targeting total enrollment of 392 patients to ensure statistical power of 0.95 for primary endpoint analysis.

Study Type

Observational

Enrollment (Estimated)

392

Contacts and Locations

This section provides the contact details for those conducting the study, and information on where this study is being conducted.

Study Contact

Study Locations

    • Shanghai Municipality
      • Shanghai, Shanghai Municipality, China, 201801
        • Recruiting
        • Ruijin Hospital North
        • Contact:

Participation Criteria

Researchers look for people who fit a certain description, called eligibility criteria. Some examples of these criteria are a person's general health condition or prior treatments.

Eligibility Criteria

Ages Eligible for Study

  • Adult
  • Older Adult

Accepts Healthy Volunteers

No

Sampling Method

Non-Probability Sample

Study Population

Patients will be selected from consecutive adults evaluated for curative-intent surgery for pathologically confirmed stage I-III colon adenocarcinoma at 10 participating tertiary hospitals in China with colorectal surgery and molecular pathology capabilities. The study cohort will include eligible patients aged 18-75 years whose tumor tissue harbors at least one prespecified oncogenic driver mutation and who consent to serial postoperative blood collection and 3 years of follow-up.

Description

Inclusion Criteria:

  1. Age 18-75 years, regardless of sex
  2. Pathologically confirmed colon adenocarcinoma, clinical stage I-III without preoperative endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD) or endoscopic mucosal resection (EMR)
  3. Planned curative surgical resection, no prior anti-tumor therapy (chemotherapy, radiotherapy, targeted therapy) before surgery
  4. Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) performance status 0 or 1
  5. Tumor tissue positive for at least one driver mutation among KRAS, NRAS, BRAF, PIK3CA
  6. Voluntary participation with signed written informed consent, good compliance with scheduled follow-up and blood collection.

Exclusion Criteria:

  1. Received neoadjuvant chemotherapy, radiotherapy or targeted therapy before surgery
  2. History of other malignant tumors (excluding non-adenomatous colorectal neoplasms)
  3. Pregnant or breastfeeding women
  4. Severe concurrent systemic diseases that interfere with long-term follow-up or short-term survival (uncontrolled severe infection, organ failure, mental disorders, or other serious conditions)
  5. Abnormal laboratory values or social/family factors judged by investigator to impede sample collection and follow-up
  6. Simultaneous participation in other interventional clinical trials with mandatory assigned postoperative treatment regimen

Study Plan

This section provides details of the study plan, including how the study is designed and what the study is measuring.

How is the study designed?

Design Details

Cohorts and Interventions

Group / Cohort
Intervention / Treatment
Driver-mutant Stage I-III Resectable Colon Adenocarcinoma Cohort
Patients pathologically diagnosed with stage I-III colon adenocarcinoma, curatively resected, carrying ≥1 oncogenic driver mutation (KRAS/NRAS/BRAF/PIK3CA), aged 18-75 years, with an Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) performance status of 0 or 1, without prior neoadjuvant therapy or other synchronous malignancy. All patients receive standard clinical surveillance plus serial blood draws for ctDNA-based MRD testing as observational biomarker testing only; no experimental treatment is assigned by the study protocol.
biomarker test only

What is the study measuring?

Primary Outcome Measures

Outcome Measure
Measure Description
Time Frame
Correlation between postoperative ctDNA-MRD status and Recurrence-Free Survival (RFS)
Time Frame: 3 years post curative resection
RFS is defined as time from curative surgery to radiology/pathology-confirmed recurrence/metastasis, all-cause death, or last follow-up (whichever occurs first). Evaluate statistical association between MRD positive/negative status and RFS via survival analysis.
3 years post curative resection

Secondary Outcome Measures

Outcome Measure
Measure Description
Time Frame
Correlation between ctDNA-MRD status and Overall Survival (OS)
Time Frame: 3 years post curative resection
OS defined as time from enrollment to all-cause death; compare OS between MRD-positive and MRD-negative subgroups
3 years post curative resection
Median lead time of MRD positivity prior to radiologically confirmed tumor recurrence
Time Frame: Up to 3 years postoperative follow-up
Calculate average interval between first detectable ctDNA-MRD and CT-verified disease relapse to quantify early warning advantage of MRD surveillance
Up to 3 years postoperative follow-up
Association between dynamic ctDNA-MRD changes and adjuvant chemotherapy efficacy
Time Frame: 3 years post curative resection
Analyze clinical outcome across MRD trajectory subgroups: sustained negative, intermittent positive, sustained positive, seroconversion from negative to positive
3 years post curative resection

Other Outcome Measures

Outcome Measure
Measure Description
Time Frame
MRD positive detection rate stratified by distinct oncogenic driver mutation subtypes
Time Frame: All serial blood testing time points within 3-year follow-up
Compare MRD detectability among driver gene mutant subgroups
All serial blood testing time points within 3-year follow-up
Prognostic predictive performance of ctDNA-MRD across different driver mutation subtypes
Time Frame: 3 years post curative resection
Evaluate heterogeneity of MRD's hazard ratio for recurrence among separate driver mutant cohorts
3 years post curative resection

Collaborators and Investigators

This is where you will find people and organizations involved with this study.

Sponsor

Collaborators

Publications and helpful links

The person responsible for entering information about the study voluntarily provides these publications. These may be about anything related to the study.

General Publications

Study record dates

These dates track the progress of study record and summary results submissions to ClinicalTrials.gov. Study records and reported results are reviewed by the National Library of Medicine (NLM) to make sure they meet specific quality control standards before being posted on the public website.

Study Major Dates

Study Start (Actual)

August 14, 2026

Primary Completion (Estimated)

December 31, 2030

Study Completion (Estimated)

December 31, 2030

Study Registration Dates

First Submitted

August 23, 2026

First Submitted That Met QC Criteria

August 26, 2026

First Posted (Actual)

August 31, 2026

Study Record Updates

Last Update Posted (Actual)

September 2, 2026

Last Update Submitted That Met QC Criteria

August 29, 2026

Last Verified

May 1, 2026

More Information

Terms related to this study

Plan for Individual participant data (IPD)

Plan to Share Individual Participant Data (IPD)?

YES

IPD Sharing Access Criteria

Requestors must provide a methodologically sound research proposal, and data access will be granted via secure de-identified dataset transfer after signed data use agreement. Supporting documents including full protocol, statistical analysis plan, informed consent template, and de-identified clinical dataset will be accessible for qualified researchers for secondary biomarker validation analyses. No identifying personal information will be shared under any circumstance.

IPD Sharing Supporting Information Type

  • STUDY_PROTOCOL
  • SAP
  • ICF

Drug and device information, study documents

Studies a U.S. FDA-regulated drug product

No

Studies a U.S. FDA-regulated device product

No

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