Development of a Predictive Algorithm for the Risk of Rehospitalization of Patients With Heart Failure

Heart failure is a chronic disease whose prevalence, due to the aging of the population, is increasing. In France, the prevalence of this pathology is 2.3% (it reaches 10% in the over 75 years) and affects nearly a million patients.

The rehospitalization of patients with heart failure affects 25% of patients within 1-3 months of hospital discharge, and 66% at 1 year while 75% of hospitalizations are preventable. These readmissions result in decreased quality of life and increased mortality; from an economic point of view, hospitalization accounts for 70% of expenses related to the management of heart failure. Avoiding rehospitalization is therefore a major public health issue. The current predictive scores remain perfectible, even though risk factors for readmission have already been the subject of numerous studies. The identification of patients at risk of rehospitalization is still an issue, especially for patients with preserved left ventricular ejection fraction. Targeting patients requiring appropriate care remains an issue.

The rise of innovative statistical techniques around Big Data in health opens new perspectives for the scientific exploitation of data available in electronic medical records, for example in the field of prediction. This study aims to explore the risk of rehospitalization in heart failure patients by analyzing routine data collected in medical records and by mobilizing artificial intelligence algorithms. A review of the literature confirms the innovative nature of such an approach: the majority of the studies identified implemented a prospective collection of data; only 20% of the studies mobilized the medical file; no French study used the new machine learning algorithms.

Study Overview

• Status: Completed
• Conditions: Heart Failure

• Study Type: Observational
• Enrollment (Actual): 1486

Contacts and Locations

Study Locations

• France
  • Paris, France, 75014
    • Groupe Hospitalier Paris Saint-Joseph

Participation Criteria

Eligibility Criteria

• Ages Eligible for Study: 18 years and older (Adult, Older Adult)
• Accepts Healthy Volunteers: No

• Sampling Method: Non-Probability Sample

Study Population

Patients with heart failure hospitalized in the cardiology department ath GHPSJ between january 2015 to december 2018

Description

Inclusion Criteria:

• Patients older than 18 years
• Patients with heart failure hospitalized in the cardiology department ath GHPSJ between january 2015 to december 2018

Exclusion Criteria:

• Patient opposing the use of his data for this research
• Patient under tutorship or curatorship
• Patient deprived of liberty

Study Plan

How is the study designed?

Design Details

• Observational Models: Cohort
• Time Perspectives: Retrospective

Number of groups / cohorts

1

Cohorts and Interventions

Group / Cohort
Heart Failure; Patients whom initiated a hospital pathway for heart failure management within the Paris Saint Joseph Hospital Group (GHPSJ) between January 1, 2015 and December 31, 2018.

What is the study measuring?

Primary Outcome Measures

Outcome Measure	Measure Description	Time Frame
Number of readmissions	Comparison of the number of readmissions predicted to the number actually observed with calculation of the sensitivity and specificity of the model at the validation phase.	month 1
Number of readmissions	Comparison of the number of readmissions predicted to the number actually observed with calculation of the sensitivity and specificity of the model at the validation phase.	Month 6
Number of readmissions	Comparison of the number of readmissions predicted to the number actually observed with calculation of the sensitivity and specificity of the model at the validation phase.	Year 1

Collaborators and Investigators

• Sponsor: Groupe Hospitalier Paris Saint Joseph
• Investigators: Principal Investigator: Philippe ABASSADE, MD, Groupe Hospitalier Paris Saint Joseph

Study record dates

Study Major Dates

• Study Start (Actual): January 12, 2019
• Primary Completion (Actual): December 31, 2019
• Study Completion (Actual): December 31, 2019

Study Registration Dates

• First Submitted: April 4, 2019
• First Submitted That Met QC Criteria: April 4, 2019
• First Posted (Actual): April 5, 2019

Study Record Updates

• Last Update Posted (Actual): April 27, 2023
• Last Update Submitted That Met QC Criteria: April 26, 2023
• Last Verified: April 1, 2023

More Information

Terms related to this study

• Additional Relevant MeSH Terms: Heart Diseases; Cardiovascular Diseases; Heart Failure
• Other Study ID Numbers: PREDIC

Drug and device information, study documents

• Studies a U.S. FDA-regulated drug product: No
• Studies a U.S. FDA-regulated device product: No