BMA and Dynamic Nomogram for Survival Prediction in Patients With CRC

February 13, 2024 updated by: Mohammad Asghari Jafarabadi, Cabrini Health

Developing a Clinician-friendly Online Tool for Survival Prediction in Colon Cancer Patients: A Bayesian Model Averaging for Risk Factor Selection and Dynamic Nomogram

This project will examine the outstanding statistical techniques for predicting the survival of patients with colorectal cancer (CRC) (colorectal neoplasia database). The motivating clinical question that led to proposing this project is based on the general assumption that: "Right-sided colorectal cancer (CRC) has worse survival than left-sided CRC." The question is, which aspects of the patient's characteristics are responsible for this difference? This led us to BMA model selection and provide a clinician-friendly online nomogram.

Study Overview

Status

Completed

Conditions

Intervention / Treatment

Detailed Description

Translational statistics merges biostatistics and clinical research to communicate research findings effectively. Nomograms, graphical representations integrating independent prognostic factors, are valuable tools in colorectal cancer (CRC) research. Bayesian models for variable selection in survival outcome prediction offer advantages through Bayesian model averaging (BMA). This study aimed to utilise BMA for variable selection and develop a clinician-friendly online dynamic nomogram for survival prediction.

A retrospective study utilised the Cabrini Monash colorectal neoplasia database, including colon cancer patients who underwent surgery. Data on demographics, perioperative risks, treatment details, mortality, morbidity, and survival were collected. BMA was employed for Bayesian variable selection to identify effective risk factors for survival prediction. Sensitivity analyses using Cox-LASSO and imputation of missing data were performed. Prognostic online dynamic nomograms were constructed using selected risk factors and the R-package DynNom.

Study Type

Observational

Enrollment (Actual)

2475

Contacts and Locations

This section provides the contact details for those conducting the study, and information on where this study is being conducted.

Study Locations

  • Australia
    • Victoria
      • Melbourne, Victoria, Australia, 3144
        • Cabrini Health

Participation Criteria

Researchers look for people who fit a certain description, called eligibility criteria. Some examples of these criteria are a person's general health condition or prior treatments.

Eligibility Criteria

Ages Eligible for Study

  • Adult
  • Older Adult

Accepts Healthy Volunteers

N/A

Sampling Method

Non-Probability Sample

Study Population

A retrospective study was conducted with the Cabrini Monash Colorectal Neoplasia Database 15. This prospectively maintained database includes data from both private (Cabrini) and public (The Alfred) hospitals in Melbourne, Australia. The study focused on patients who underwent surgery for colon cancer from January 2010 to December 2021.

Description

Inclusion Criteria:

In this study, patients were included based on specific selection criteria: being 18 years old or older, having a diagnosis of colon adenocarcinoma (or post polypectomy of the same condition), and having undergone surgery for colon cancer.

Exclusion Criteria:

Patients with rectal cancer, neuroendocrine tumours, lymphomas and those who underwent trans-anal surgery were not included in the study.

Study Plan

This section provides details of the study plan, including how the study is designed and what the study is measuring.

How is the study designed?

Design Details

What is the study measuring?

Primary Outcome Measures

Outcome Measure
Measure Description
Time Frame
OS
Time Frame: 2011-2021
Overall Survival, time from sugary to death or last follow up
2011-2021
RFS
Time Frame: 2011-2021
Relapse-free Survival, time from sugary to death or last follow up for those without relapse.
2011-2021

Collaborators and Investigators

This is where you will find people and organizations involved with this study.

Sponsor

Cabrini Health

Publications and helpful links

The person responsible for entering information about the study voluntarily provides these publications. These may be about anything related to the study.

General Publications

Study record dates

These dates track the progress of study record and summary results submissions to ClinicalTrials.gov. Study records and reported results are reviewed by the National Library of Medicine (NLM) to make sure they meet specific quality control standards before being posted on the public website.

Study Major Dates

Study Start (Actual)

February 15, 2010

Primary Completion (Actual)

December 15, 2021

Study Completion (Actual)

December 15, 2021

Study Registration Dates

First Submitted

February 13, 2024

First Submitted That Met QC Criteria

February 13, 2024

First Posted (Actual)

February 20, 2024

Study Record Updates

Last Update Posted (Actual)

February 20, 2024

Last Update Submitted That Met QC Criteria

February 13, 2024

Last Verified

February 1, 2024

More Information

Terms related to this study

Keywords

Additional Relevant MeSH Terms

Other Study ID Numbers

  • #08-01-03-23

Plan for Individual participant data (IPD)

Plan to Share Individual Participant Data (IPD)?

NO

Drug and device information, study documents

Studies a U.S. FDA-regulated drug product

No

Studies a U.S. FDA-regulated device product

No

This information was retrieved directly from the website clinicaltrials.gov without any changes. If you have any requests to change, remove or update your study details, please contact register@clinicaltrials.gov. As soon as a change is implemented on clinicaltrials.gov, this will be updated automatically on our website as well.

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