Predicting Risk for Post-polypectomy Colorectal Cancer (PREDICT)

February 27, 2023 updated by: Kaiser Permanente
This originated as an observational study of Kaiser Permanente Northern California (KPNC) patients with a history of adenoma diagnosed by colonoscopy who received a subsequent surveillance colonoscopy between 2014 and 2019. The original goal of the study was to develop a risk prediction model that would help identify patients at highest risk for a diagnosis of advanced neoplasia (colorectal cancer and/or advanced adenoma) at or within 6 months following their surveillance colonoscopy. Candidate predictors of interest included patient demographics, medical history, and details related to the index colonoscopy. The investigators are now at the implementation stage and applying the risk prediction model to patients awaiting surveillance colonoscopy at select KPNC service areas to help identify those at highest risk for colorectal cancer based on their risk scores.

Study Overview

Status

Withdrawn

Conditions

Intervention / Treatment

Detailed Description

In the implementation stage, the risk prediction model is being applied to patients who are awaiting surveillance colonoscopy at select KPNC service areas to help identify those at highest risk for colorectal cancer based on their risk scores. The prediction model is being used in 2-3 service area to identify about 60-80 patients per month who are at highest risk for colorectal cancer based on their risk scores. Risk scores represent one of a number of factors being considered for prioritizing patients for colonoscopy.

Study Type

Interventional

Phase

  • Not Applicable

Contacts and Locations

This section provides the contact details for those conducting the study, and information on where this study is being conducted.

Study Locations

  • United States
    • California
      • Oakland, California, United States, 94612
        • Kaiser Permanente Northern California Division of Research

Participation Criteria

Researchers look for people who fit a certain description, called eligibility criteria. Some examples of these criteria are a person's general health condition or prior treatments.

Eligibility Criteria

Ages Eligible for Study

18 years to 85 years (Adult, Older Adult)

Accepts Healthy Volunteers

Yes

Genders Eligible for Study

All

Description

Inclusion Criteria:

Patients are on the current colonoscopy pending list; excluding those who were fecal immunochemical test-positive, screening colonoscopies, had a colonoscopy in last 12 months or on a voluntary "pause" list

  • Hereditary colorectal cancer syndrome (e.g. Lynch syndrome)
  • Diagnostic, fecal immunochemical test -positive, or screening indication for colonoscopy

Study Plan

This section provides details of the study plan, including how the study is designed and what the study is measuring.

How is the study designed?

Design Details

  • Primary Purpose: Health Services Research
  • Allocation: N/A
  • Interventional Model: Single Group Assignment
  • Masking: None (Open Label)

Arms and Interventions

Participant Group / Arm
Intervention / Treatment
Experimental: Use of risk prediction scores
The prediction model is being used to identify patients who are at highest risk for colorectal cancer based on their risk scores.
Device: Logistic regression risk model
Logistic regression model to assign risk score, plus time overdue and PROMPT risk category

What is the study measuring?

Primary Outcome Measures

Outcome Measure
Measure Description
Time Frame
Rates of colorectal neoplasia per number of colonoscopies performed
Time Frame: 1 year
The investigators anticipate observing changed rates of colorectal neoplasia per number of colonoscopies performed on account of prioritizing higher risk patients.
1 year

Collaborators and Investigators

This is where you will find people and organizations involved with this study.

Sponsor

Kaiser Permanente

Collaborators

The Permanente Medical Group

Investigators

  • Principal Investigator: Theodore R Levin, MD, Kaiser Permanente Northern California, Division of Research

Study record dates

These dates track the progress of study record and summary results submissions to ClinicalTrials.gov. Study records and reported results are reviewed by the National Library of Medicine (NLM) to make sure they meet specific quality control standards before being posted on the public website.

Study Major Dates

Study Start (Actual)

September 1, 2022

Primary Completion (Anticipated)

September 1, 2023

Study Completion (Anticipated)

December 31, 2023

Study Registration Dates

First Submitted

October 7, 2022

First Submitted That Met QC Criteria

November 3, 2022

First Posted (Actual)

November 4, 2022

Study Record Updates

Last Update Posted (Estimate)

February 28, 2023

Last Update Submitted That Met QC Criteria

February 27, 2023

Last Verified

February 1, 2023

More Information

Terms related to this study

Additional Relevant MeSH Terms

Other Study ID Numbers

  • 1547728-4

Drug and device information, study documents

Studies a U.S. FDA-regulated drug product

No

Studies a U.S. FDA-regulated device product

Yes

product manufactured in and exported from the U.S.

No

This information was retrieved directly from the website clinicaltrials.gov without any changes. If you have any requests to change, remove or update your study details, please contact register@clinicaltrials.gov. As soon as a change is implemented on clinicaltrials.gov, this will be updated automatically on our website as well.

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