The Prediction of Recurrence Lumbar Disc Herniation At L5-S1 Level Through Machine Learning Models Based on Endoscopic Discectomy Via the Interlaminar Approach

February 12, 2025 updated by: Jinyu Chen

What Was the Study About? This study focused on improving the care of patients with a specific type of back problem called lumbar disc herniation at the L5-S1 level. Doctors often treat this condition with a minimally invasive surgery known as percutaneous endoscopic interlaminar discectomy (PEID). However, sometimes the herniation (the damaged disc) can come back after surgery. The goal of this study was to develop computer models that help predict which patients might experience a recurrence of their herniated disc.

Who Participated? The study reviewed the medical records of 309 patients who had undergone the PEID surgery. Out of these, 33 patients experienced a recurrence of their herniation, while 276 patients did not.

What Did the Researchers Do?

Data Collection:

They gathered information from each patient before the surgery, including clinical details (like body weight and any health conditions such as diabetes) and imaging studies (like X-rays, CT scans, or MRIs) that show the condition of the spine.

Identifying Key Risk Factors:

Using a statistical method called LASSO regression, the researchers identified eight important factors that could influence whether the herniation might come back. These included factors such as body mass index (BMI), a measure related to disc height (posterior disc height index), signs of spinal canal narrowing, how long the patient had symptoms before surgery, and other health conditions.

Developing Prediction Models:

They then used several machine learning techniques (advanced computer methods that learn from data) to build prediction models. Two of the best-performing models were based on methods called Random Forest and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGB).

What Were the Main Findings?

Key Predictors: Higher BMI and changes in the disc (as measured by the posterior disc height index) were found to be the strongest predictors of a herniation coming back after surgery. Other factors, like spinal canal narrowing and longer duration of symptoms before surgery, also played significant roles.

Practical Implication: These models can help doctors identify which patients are at higher risk for recurrence. With this information, they can adjust treatment plans and follow-up care to better manage and potentially reduce the risk of the herniation coming back.

Why Is This Important? For patients and their families, this study offers hope for more personalized and effective treatment plans, reducing the chances of needing additional surgeries in the future. For healthcare providers, the findings provide useful tools to improve decision-making before surgery, ensuring better long-term outcomes for patients with L5-S1 lumbar disc herniation.

In summary, this research uses modern computer methods to predict the risk of recurrent disc herniation after a common minimally invasive back surgery, aiming to enhance patient care and improve surgical outcomes.

Study Overview

Status

Completed

Conditions

Intervention / Treatment

Detailed Description

Detailed Description

This study aimed to enhance care for patients undergoing a minimally invasive spine surgery known as percutaneous endoscopic interlaminar discectomy (PEID), which is used to treat herniated discs at the L5-S1 level. Recurrent disc herniation-where the disc problem returns after surgery-can lead to additional pain and the need for further treatment. To address this issue, the research team conducted an in-depth review of patient data gathered at a single hospital.

How the Study Was Conducted Researchers collected comprehensive information from 309 patients who had undergone PEID. This information included clinical details (such as age, body mass index, and existing conditions like diabetes) and imaging data (from X-rays, CT scans, and MRIs) that provided insights into the structure and condition of the spine. Rather than relying on a single factor, the study examined a wide range of variables to understand which ones might predict a recurrence of the herniated disc.

Advanced Data Analysis and Prediction Methods To sift through the large amount of collected data, the team used a statistical technique called LASSO regression. This method helped identify the most influential factors from many possible measurements. Eight key factors emerged, including body mass index (BMI) and specific measurements related to the spinal disc's structure.

Building on this foundation, the study employed several machine learning techniques-advanced computer methods that detect patterns in data-to create models capable of predicting the risk of recurrence. Among the various models tested, two (Random Forest and Extreme Gradient Boosting) stood out for their strong performance. These models not only highlighted the significance of factors like BMI and certain spinal measurements but also provided a promising tool for clinicians to assess risk before surgery.

Why This Matters For healthcare providers, having a reliable predictive model means they can better tailor surgical techniques and postoperative care to individual patients. By understanding a patient's risk profile, surgeons can take additional precautions or consider alternative approaches to reduce the chance of recurrence. For patients and their families, this translates into more personalized treatment plans and potentially fewer complications or repeat surgeries in the future.

In Summary This study represents an important step toward personalized medicine in spinal care. By integrating detailed clinical and imaging data with state-of-the-art machine learning techniques, the researchers developed a model that can forecast the likelihood of a recurrent herniated disc after PEID surgery. The insights gained not only improve the understanding of key risk factors but also pave the way for more targeted and effective treatment strategies, ultimately aiming to enhance long-term patient outcomes.

Study Type

Observational

Enrollment (Actual)

309

Contacts and Locations

This section provides the contact details for those conducting the study, and information on where this study is being conducted.

Study Locations

  • China
    • Jiangsu
      • Nantong, Jiangsu, China, 226000
        • Nantong First People's Hospital

Participation Criteria

Researchers look for people who fit a certain description, called eligibility criteria. Some examples of these criteria are a person's general health condition or prior treatments.

Eligibility Criteria

Ages Eligible for Study

  • Child
  • Adult
  • Older Adult

Accepts Healthy Volunteers

No

Sampling Method

Non-Probability Sample

Study Population

Study Population Description:

The study population consisted of 309 patients who underwent percutaneous endoscopic interlaminar discectomy (PEID) for L5-S1 lumbar disc herniation between January 2020 and June 2024 at Nantong First People's Hospital. All patients had at least 6 months of follow-up post-surgery. The study focused on identifying factors that predict recurrent lumbar disc herniation (rLDH) after the procedure.

Description

Inclusion Criteria:

Inclusion Criteria for rLDH: (A) Patients with L5-S1 lumbar disc herniation who underwent single level PEID. (B) Completed comprehensive imaging examinations within one month before surgery.

(C) Postoperative VAS scores decreased by ≥60%, followed by an increase, confirmed by imaging.

(D) No other abnormalities detected in imaging. (E) Minimum follow-up period of 6 months.

Inclusion Criteria for Non-rLDH: (A) Patients with L5-S1 lumbar disc herniation who underwent single-level PEID. (B) Completed comprehensive imaging examinations within one month before surgery. (C) Postoperative VAS scores decreased by ≥60% without recurrence. (D) No other abnormalities detected in imaging. (E) Minimum follow-up period of 6 months.

Exclusion Criteria:

(A) Presence of other pathological conditions causing lower back pain, such as disc infections, spinal tumors, metabolic bone disease, or osteoporosis. (B) History of prior lumbar disc or other spinal surgeries. (C) Poor imaging quality or incomplete examination data. (D) Patients lost to follow-up.

Study Plan

This section provides details of the study plan, including how the study is designed and what the study is measuring.

How is the study designed?

Design Details

Cohorts and Interventions

Group / Cohort
Intervention / Treatment
Recurrent rLDH
: Patients who experienced recurrent lumbar disc herniation following L5-S1 PEID.
Diagnostic test: VAS Point and Imaging Examination

This intervention uses a machine learning model to predict the risk of recurrent lumbar disc herniation (rLDH) in patients who have had percutaneous endoscopic interlaminar discectomy (PEID) at the L5-S1 level. The model combines clinical data (e.g., BMI, disease duration, diabetes) and imaging metrics (e.g., posterior disc height index, spinal canal stenosis) to create a personalized risk score, unlike traditional methods that rely on clinical judgment or imaging alone.

Key Features:

Data-Driven Approach: Developed using data from 309 patients for real-world relevance.

Advanced Variable Selection: Identifies eight key predictors using LASSO regression.

Multiple Machine Learning Techniques: Uses algorithms like support vector machine, random forest, and extreme gradient boosting.

Optimized for Clinical Decision-Making: Assists surgeons in personalizing treatment plans to reduce recurrence risk.
Non-Recurrent rLDH
Patients who did not experience recurrent lumbar disc herniation following L5-S1 PEID.
Diagnostic test: VAS Point and Imaging Examination

This intervention uses a machine learning model to predict the risk of recurrent lumbar disc herniation (rLDH) in patients who have had percutaneous endoscopic interlaminar discectomy (PEID) at the L5-S1 level. The model combines clinical data (e.g., BMI, disease duration, diabetes) and imaging metrics (e.g., posterior disc height index, spinal canal stenosis) to create a personalized risk score, unlike traditional methods that rely on clinical judgment or imaging alone.

Key Features:

Data-Driven Approach: Developed using data from 309 patients for real-world relevance.

Advanced Variable Selection: Identifies eight key predictors using LASSO regression.

Multiple Machine Learning Techniques: Uses algorithms like support vector machine, random forest, and extreme gradient boosting.

Optimized for Clinical Decision-Making: Assists surgeons in personalizing treatment plans to reduce recurrence risk.

What is the study measuring?

Primary Outcome Measures

Outcome Measure
Measure Description
Time Frame
Recurrence of Lumbar Disc Herniation (rLDH) Following Percutaneous Endoscopic Interlaminar Discectomy (PEID) at the L5-S1 Level
Time Frame: The recurrence will be monitored and documented during follow-up visits at least 6 months
The primary outcome measure will assess the recurrence of lumbar disc herniation (rLDH) in patients who have undergone percutaneous endoscopic interlaminar discectomy (PEID) at the L5-S1 level. The occurrence of rLDH will be evaluated based on clinical symptoms and imaging findings, including MRI or CT scans, within a specified follow-up period post-surgery. This measure aims to develop a predictive model to estimate the likelihood of recurrence of disc herniation following PEID at the L5-S1 level.
The recurrence will be monitored and documented during follow-up visits at least 6 months

Collaborators and Investigators

This is where you will find people and organizations involved with this study.

Sponsor

Jinyu Chen

Collaborators

Nantong First People's Hospital

Publications and helpful links

The person responsible for entering information about the study voluntarily provides these publications. These may be about anything related to the study.

General Publications

Study record dates

These dates track the progress of study record and summary results submissions to ClinicalTrials.gov. Study records and reported results are reviewed by the National Library of Medicine (NLM) to make sure they meet specific quality control standards before being posted on the public website.

Study Major Dates

Study Start (Actual)

January 1, 2020

Primary Completion (Actual)

May 31, 2024

Study Completion (Actual)

November 1, 2024

Study Registration Dates

First Submitted

February 12, 2025

First Submitted That Met QC Criteria

February 12, 2025

First Posted (Actual)

March 25, 2025

Study Record Updates

Last Update Posted (Actual)

March 25, 2025

Last Update Submitted That Met QC Criteria

February 12, 2025

Last Verified

October 1, 2024

More Information

Terms related to this study

Keywords

Additional Relevant MeSH Terms

Other Study ID Numbers

  • JiajiaChen

Plan for Individual participant data (IPD)

Plan to Share Individual Participant Data (IPD)?

NO

IPD Plan Description

Due to the sensitive nature of patient clinical and imaging data, and to protect patient privacy and data security, we do not plan to share individual participant data (IPD) with other researchers. Sharing such data could potentially lead to the leakage of personal information, so we have decided not to make these data publicly available. All data will be handled in strict accordance with privacy protection regulations set by the hospital's ethics committee and will be used exclusively within the research team.

Drug and device information, study documents

Studies a U.S. FDA-regulated drug product

No

Studies a U.S. FDA-regulated device product

No

product manufactured in and exported from the U.S.

No

This information was retrieved directly from the website clinicaltrials.gov without any changes. If you have any requests to change, remove or update your study details, please contact register@clinicaltrials.gov. As soon as a change is implemented on clinicaltrials.gov, this will be updated automatically on our website as well.

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