Forecast Number of Covid-19 Cases Worldwide (Covid19TmeSer)

July 6, 2020 updated by: Serhat Akay, Turkish Ministry of Health Izmir Teaching Hospital

Time Series Model For Forecasting the Number of Covid-19 Cases Worldwide - A Prospective Cohort Study

Coronavirus disease-19 (Covid-19) had an unprecedented effect on both nations and health systems. Time series modeling using Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Averages (ARIMA) models have been used to forecast variables extensively mainly in statistics and econometrics. The investigators aimed to predict the total number of cases for Covid-19 using ARIMA models of time-series analysis.

Study Overview

Status

Completed

Conditions

Intervention / Treatment

Detailed Description

Coronavirus Disease 19 (Covid-19) is an infectious disease initially defined in December 2019 before becoming pandemic. Respiratory disease is the main form of disease causing acute respiratory distress as the main cause of death.

Increased number of cases worldwide had put an enormous load on public health resulting lockdowns, quarantines and curfews. Predicting number of cases is hard as the increment of cases between communities differ.

Time series had been used in different fields of science to predict, such as signal processing, mathematical finance, weather prediction. In medicine, time series analysis were used in number of admitted patients to hospitals. Aim of this study is to predict the total number of Covid-19 cases worldwide using time series anaylsis.

Study Type

Observational

Enrollment (Actual)

7882471

Contacts and Locations

This section provides the contact details for those conducting the study, and information on where this study is being conducted.

Study Locations

  • Turkey
      • İzmir, Turkey, 35360
        • Republic of Turkey, Health Sciences University, Izmir Bozyaka Education and Training Hospital

Participation Criteria

Researchers look for people who fit a certain description, called eligibility criteria. Some examples of these criteria are a person's general health condition or prior treatments.

Eligibility Criteria

Ages Eligible for Study

  • ADULT
  • OLDER_ADULT
  • CHILD

Accepts Healthy Volunteers

No

Genders Eligible for Study

All

Sampling Method

Non-Probability Sample

Study Population

Population consists all confirmed cases of Covid-19 reported from Situation Dashboard of the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control website Coronavirus 19 Situation Report

Description

Inclusion Criteria:

  • Confirmed case of Covid-19

Exclusion Criteria:

  • Cases not reported

Study Plan

This section provides details of the study plan, including how the study is designed and what the study is measuring.

How is the study designed?

Design Details

Cohorts and Interventions

Group / Cohort
Intervention / Treatment
Model Building
Number of Covid-19 cases from December 31, 2019 to June 1, 2020 were used to build ARIMA model using Hyndman-Khandakar algorithm.
Other: Model Building
Model building
Model Validation
Number of Covid-19 cases from June 2, 2020 to June 15, 2020 were used to forecast cases using the ARIMA model
Other: Model validation
Model validation

What is the study measuring?

Primary Outcome Measures

Outcome Measure
Time Frame
Number of Confirmed cases of Covid-19
Time Frame: December 31, 2019 to June 15, 2020
December 31, 2019 to June 15, 2020

Collaborators and Investigators

This is where you will find people and organizations involved with this study.

Sponsor

Turkish Ministry of Health Izmir Teaching Hospital

Study record dates

These dates track the progress of study record and summary results submissions to ClinicalTrials.gov. Study records and reported results are reviewed by the National Library of Medicine (NLM) to make sure they meet specific quality control standards before being posted on the public website.

Study Major Dates

Study Start (ACTUAL)

December 31, 2019

Primary Completion (ACTUAL)

June 15, 2020

Study Completion (ACTUAL)

June 20, 2020

Study Registration Dates

First Submitted

July 3, 2020

First Submitted That Met QC Criteria

July 3, 2020

First Posted (ACTUAL)

July 7, 2020

Study Record Updates

Last Update Posted (ACTUAL)

July 8, 2020

Last Update Submitted That Met QC Criteria

July 6, 2020

Last Verified

July 1, 2020

More Information

Terms related to this study

Keywords

Additional Relevant MeSH Terms

Other Study ID Numbers

  • TurkishMOHITH-TimeSeries

Drug and device information, study documents

Studies a U.S. FDA-regulated drug product

No

Studies a U.S. FDA-regulated device product

No

This information was retrieved directly from the website clinicaltrials.gov without any changes. If you have any requests to change, remove or update your study details, please contact register@clinicaltrials.gov. As soon as a change is implemented on clinicaltrials.gov, this will be updated automatically on our website as well.

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