- ICH GCP
- US Clinical Trials Registry
- Clinical Trial NCT04460274
Forecast Number of Covid-19 Cases Worldwide (Covid19TmeSer)
Time Series Model For Forecasting the Number of Covid-19 Cases Worldwide - A Prospective Cohort Study
Study Overview
Status
Conditions
Intervention / Treatment
Detailed Description
Coronavirus Disease 19 (Covid-19) is an infectious disease initially defined in December 2019 before becoming pandemic. Respiratory disease is the main form of disease causing acute respiratory distress as the main cause of death.
Increased number of cases worldwide had put an enormous load on public health resulting lockdowns, quarantines and curfews. Predicting number of cases is hard as the increment of cases between communities differ.
Time series had been used in different fields of science to predict, such as signal processing, mathematical finance, weather prediction. In medicine, time series analysis were used in number of admitted patients to hospitals. Aim of this study is to predict the total number of Covid-19 cases worldwide using time series anaylsis.
Study Type
Enrollment (Actual)
Contacts and Locations
Study Locations
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İzmir, Turkey, 35360
- Republic of Turkey, Health Sciences University, Izmir Bozyaka Education and Training Hospital
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Participation Criteria
Eligibility Criteria
Ages Eligible for Study
- ADULT
- OLDER_ADULT
- CHILD
Accepts Healthy Volunteers
Genders Eligible for Study
Sampling Method
Study Population
Description
Inclusion Criteria:
- Confirmed case of Covid-19
Exclusion Criteria:
- Cases not reported
Study Plan
How is the study designed?
Design Details
Cohorts and Interventions
Group / Cohort |
Intervention / Treatment |
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Model Building
Number of Covid-19 cases from December 31, 2019 to June 1, 2020 were used to build ARIMA model using Hyndman-Khandakar algorithm.
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Model building
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Model Validation
Number of Covid-19 cases from June 2, 2020 to June 15, 2020 were used to forecast cases using the ARIMA model
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Model validation
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What is the study measuring?
Primary Outcome Measures
Outcome Measure |
Time Frame |
---|---|
Number of Confirmed cases of Covid-19
Time Frame: December 31, 2019 to June 15, 2020
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December 31, 2019 to June 15, 2020
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Collaborators and Investigators
Study record dates
Study Major Dates
Study Start (ACTUAL)
Primary Completion (ACTUAL)
Study Completion (ACTUAL)
Study Registration Dates
First Submitted
First Submitted That Met QC Criteria
First Posted (ACTUAL)
Study Record Updates
Last Update Posted (ACTUAL)
Last Update Submitted That Met QC Criteria
Last Verified
More Information
Terms related to this study
Keywords
Additional Relevant MeSH Terms
Other Study ID Numbers
- TurkishMOHITH-TimeSeries
Drug and device information, study documents
Studies a U.S. FDA-regulated drug product
Studies a U.S. FDA-regulated device product
This information was retrieved directly from the website clinicaltrials.gov without any changes. If you have any requests to change, remove or update your study details, please contact register@clinicaltrials.gov. As soon as a change is implemented on clinicaltrials.gov, this will be updated automatically on our website as well.
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