Forecast Number of Covid-19 Cases Worldwide (Covid19TmeSer)

Time Series Model For Forecasting the Number of Covid-19 Cases Worldwide - A Prospective Cohort Study

Coronavirus disease-19 (Covid-19) had an unprecedented effect on both nations and health systems. Time series modeling using Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Averages (ARIMA) models have been used to forecast variables extensively mainly in statistics and econometrics. The investigators aimed to predict the total number of cases for Covid-19 using ARIMA models of time-series analysis.

Study Overview

• Status: Completed
• Conditions: Covid-19
• Intervention / Treatment: Other: Model Building; Other: Model validation

Detailed Description

Coronavirus Disease 19 (Covid-19) is an infectious disease initially defined in December 2019 before becoming pandemic. Respiratory disease is the main form of disease causing acute respiratory distress as the main cause of death.

Increased number of cases worldwide had put an enormous load on public health resulting lockdowns, quarantines and curfews. Predicting number of cases is hard as the increment of cases between communities differ.

Time series had been used in different fields of science to predict, such as signal processing, mathematical finance, weather prediction. In medicine, time series analysis were used in number of admitted patients to hospitals. Aim of this study is to predict the total number of Covid-19 cases worldwide using time series anaylsis.

• Study Type: Observational
• Enrollment (Actual): 7882471

Contacts and Locations

Study Locations

• Turkey
  • İzmir, Turkey, 35360
    • Republic of Turkey, Health Sciences University, Izmir Bozyaka Education and Training Hospital

Participation Criteria

Eligibility Criteria

• Ages Eligible for Study: ADULT; OLDER_ADULT; CHILD
• Accepts Healthy Volunteers: No
• Genders Eligible for Study: All

• Sampling Method: Non-Probability Sample

Study Population

Population consists all confirmed cases of Covid-19 reported from Situation Dashboard of the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control website Coronavirus 19 Situation Report

Description

Inclusion Criteria:

• Confirmed case of Covid-19

Exclusion Criteria:

• Cases not reported

Study Plan

How is the study designed?

Number of groups / cohorts

2

Cohorts and Interventions

Group / Cohort	Intervention / Treatment
Model Building; Number of Covid-19 cases from December 31, 2019 to June 1, 2020 were used to build ARIMA model using Hyndman-Khandakar algorithm.	Other: Model Building; Model building
Model Validation; Number of Covid-19 cases from June 2, 2020 to June 15, 2020 were used to forecast cases using the ARIMA model	Other: Model validation; Model validation

What is the study measuring?

Primary Outcome Measures

Outcome Measure	Time Frame
Number of Confirmed cases of Covid-19	December 31, 2019 to June 15, 2020

Collaborators and Investigators

• Sponsor: Turkish Ministry of Health Izmir Teaching Hospital

Study record dates

Study Major Dates

• Study Start (ACTUAL): December 31, 2019
• Primary Completion (ACTUAL): June 15, 2020
• Study Completion (ACTUAL): June 20, 2020

Study Registration Dates

• First Submitted: July 3, 2020
• First Submitted That Met QC Criteria: July 3, 2020
• First Posted (ACTUAL): July 7, 2020

Study Record Updates

• Last Update Posted (ACTUAL): July 8, 2020
• Last Update Submitted That Met QC Criteria: July 6, 2020
• Last Verified: July 1, 2020

More Information

Terms related to this study

• Keywords: Covid19, forecasting
• Additional Relevant MeSH Terms: Coronavirus Infections; Coronaviridae Infections; Nidovirales Infections; RNA Virus Infections; Virus Diseases; Infections; Respiratory Tract Infections; Respiratory Tract Diseases; Pneumonia, Viral; Pneumonia; Lung Diseases; COVID-19
• Other Study ID Numbers: TurkishMOHITH-TimeSeries

Drug and device information, study documents

• Studies a U.S. FDA-regulated drug product: No
• Studies a U.S. FDA-regulated device product: No