Development and Validation of a Simple-to-use Nomogram for Predicting In-hospital Mortality in Acute Heart Failure Patients Undergoing Continuous Renal Replacement Therapy

February 9, 2021 updated by: Qilu Hospital of Shandong University

Acute heart failure (AHF) is one of the most common causes of hospitalization and life-threatening medical condition around worldwide. The AHF patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) usually be critically ill with multiorgan failure, in which the kidneys are most frequently involved. The goals of treatment of AHF in ICU were to improve hemodynamic stability and organ perfusion, alleviate symptoms, and limit cardiac and renal damage, which can be achieved by continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT), a continuous extracorporeal blood purification. CRRT can mimic urine output to slowly and continuously remove patient's plasma water, providing accurate volume control and hemodynamic stability.

Acute Heart Failure Global Survey of Standard Treatment (ALARM-HF) study showed that hospital mortality of AHF patients was about 17.8% in the intensive care unit (ICU). But the patients undergoing CRRT, the mortality up to 45%-62.1%. For this reason, an early model or score to a screening of AHF patients undergoing CRRT who at high mortality risk is crucial, which can help clinicians to rapidly intervene and ameliorate disease outcomes. The most popular tools, especially that can predict mortality for critically ill patients, are the Acute Physiology Assessment and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) scoring systems, and Simplified Acute Physiologic Score II (SAPS II). But variables in these scoring systems are complex, which was not convenient to assess at any time. Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS) , much more concise than APACHE II and SAPS II, not only can be used for early warning of the onset of AHF in patients with the risk of heart failure but also has a positive correlation with mortality in these patients. However, up to our knowledge, there was no scores or model to predict the in-hospital mortality of AHF patient undergoing CRRT.

Based on the acute heart failure unit (AHFU) of Qilu Hospital and the medical information mart for intensive care III (MIMIC III) database, the investigators collected the data of AHF adults undergoing CRRT. The present study aimed to develop and validate a simple-to-use nomogram model comprised of independent prognostic variables for predicting in-hospital mortality in AHF adults undergoing CRRT by using multivariate logistic regression analysis. With this model, the investigators can guide the early screening of high-risk patients in in-hospital mortality.

Study Overview

Status

Unknown

Conditions

Intervention / Treatment

Detailed Description

The eligible patients randomly into training cohort and validation cohort. The univariate logistics regression analyses were performed to determine the independent risk characteristics in the training cohort of the presence of in-hospital all-cause death. Odds Ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of these variables were estimated to quantify the strength of these associations. All variables that showed a univariate relationship with in-hospital mortality or that were considered clinically relevant were candidates for stepwise multivariate analysis in the training cohort. A nomogram model, producing by using the rms package, was formulated based on the results of independent risk factors in multivariate logistic regression. Based on the nomogram model, the total scores and prediction of in-hospital mortality risk of each patient were added by each eligible variable and then were converted to predicted probabilities both in the training cohort and validation cohort.

To evaluated the model for the prediction value of in-hospital mortality, firstly, the investigators calculated the calibration of the model was measured by calibration with 1000 bootstrap samples to decrease the overfit bias. Model fitting was assessed using the Hosmer-Lemeshow test to evaluate the goodness of fit. Secondly, the Harrell concordance index (C index) and receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC curve) to evaluate the predictive performance and discrimination of the nomogram. The ROC curve analysis was used to calculate the optimal cutoff values that were determined by maximizing the Youden index. Third, the clinical effectiveness of the resulting model was evaluated by decision curve analysis (DCA), which was a method for evaluating alternative diagnostic or prognostic tools that had advantages over others[16]. The increase in the discriminative value of MEWS and the resulting model for mortality was assessed by the net reclassification index (NRI).

Study Type

Observational

Enrollment (Anticipated)

226

Contacts and Locations

This section provides the contact details for those conducting the study, and information on where this study is being conducted.

Study Contact

Study Locations

  • China
    • Shandong
      • Jinan, Shandong, China, 250012
        • Recruiting
        • Qilu Hospital Of Shandong University
        • Contact:
        • Principal Investigator:
          • Luyao Gao

Participation Criteria

Researchers look for people who fit a certain description, called eligibility criteria. Some examples of these criteria are a person's general health condition or prior treatments.

Eligibility Criteria

Ages Eligible for Study

15 years and older (ADULT, OLDER_ADULT, CHILD)

Accepts Healthy Volunteers

No

Genders Eligible for Study

All

Sampling Method

Non-Probability Sample

Study Population

All data of patients were derived from two databases. One was CRRT databases collected the data of patients between November 9, 2011, to August 1, 2020, in AHFU of Qilu Hospital. Another was the MIMIC III database (version 1.4), a single-center, free, large online international database.

Description

Inclusion Criteria:

  • Clinical diagnosis of acute heart failure
  • undergoing CRRT

Exclusion Criteria:

  • died before CRRT

Study Plan

This section provides details of the study plan, including how the study is designed and what the study is measuring.

How is the study designed?

Design Details

Cohorts and Interventions

Group / Cohort
Intervention / Treatment
Survivor cohort; Non-survivor Cohort
All patients were categorized according to the state of departure from the hospital, named survivor or non-survivor.
Other: no intervention
no intervention
Training Cohort, Validation Cohort
the eligible patients randomly (7:3) into training cohort and validation cohort. The training cohort were used to build nomogram model, while the validation cohort validated the model.
Other: no intervention
no intervention

What is the study measuring?

Primary Outcome Measures

Outcome Measure
Measure Description
Time Frame
in-hospital mortality
Time Frame: During hospitalization, an average of 20 days
according to the state of departure from the hospital, if the patient died, named in-hospital mortality
During hospitalization, an average of 20 days

Collaborators and Investigators

This is where you will find people and organizations involved with this study.

Sponsor

Qilu Hospital of Shandong University

Publications and helpful links

The person responsible for entering information about the study voluntarily provides these publications. These may be about anything related to the study.

General Publications

Study record dates

These dates track the progress of study record and summary results submissions to ClinicalTrials.gov. Study records and reported results are reviewed by the National Library of Medicine (NLM) to make sure they meet specific quality control standards before being posted on the public website.

Study Major Dates

Study Start (ACTUAL)

October 30, 2020

Primary Completion (ANTICIPATED)

February 28, 2021

Study Completion (ANTICIPATED)

March 30, 2021

Study Registration Dates

First Submitted

February 3, 2021

First Submitted That Met QC Criteria

February 9, 2021

First Posted (ACTUAL)

February 12, 2021

Study Record Updates

Last Update Posted (ACTUAL)

February 12, 2021

Last Update Submitted That Met QC Criteria

February 9, 2021

Last Verified

February 1, 2021

More Information

Terms related to this study

Additional Relevant MeSH Terms

Other Study ID Numbers

  • KYLL-202011-114

Drug and device information, study documents

Studies a U.S. FDA-regulated drug product

No

Studies a U.S. FDA-regulated device product

No

This information was retrieved directly from the website clinicaltrials.gov without any changes. If you have any requests to change, remove or update your study details, please contact register@clinicaltrials.gov. As soon as a change is implemented on clinicaltrials.gov, this will be updated automatically on our website as well.

Clinical Trials on Heart Failure Acute

Clinical Trials on no intervention

Search Similar Trials

Sponsors and Collaborators

Medical Conditions

Drug Interventions

CROs by country

CROs in Malta

Conditions

Rare Diseases

Drug Interventions

Dietary Supplements

Sponsor/Collaborators

Locations

3
Subscribe