Planning for Frailty: Optimal Health and Social Care Workforce Organisation Using Demand-led Simulation Modelling (FLOWS)

Planning for Frailty: Optimal Health and Social Care Workforce Organisation Using Demand-led Simulation Modelling (FLOWS)

What is the present, and expected, size and composition of the health and social care workforce required to provide care for the frail older population? As the population ages, robust workforce planning to meet future demands for health and social care by older people is needed. A lack of evidence in this areas has led to a mis-match between the health and social care demand from the ageing population and the current workforce capacity. The proposed study will use demand-led simulation modelling of the workforce required to address the specific challenge of providing health and social care for the growing numbers of older people living with frailty.

Study Overview

• Status: Active, not recruiting
• Conditions: Older People; Frailty in Aging

Detailed Description

Research Question: What is the present, and expected, size and composition of the health and social care workforce required to provide care for the frail older population? Background: As the population ages, robust workforce planning to meet future demands for health and social care by older people is needed. A lack of evidence in this area has led to a mis-match between the health and social care demand from the ageing population and the current workforce capacity. The proposed study will use demand-led simulation modelling of the workforce required to address the specific challenge of providing health and social care for the growing numbers of older people living with frailty.

Aims & Objectives: The aim of the study is to use simulation modelling to explore long-term trends in frailty-related health and social care use in the ageing population and its implications for future workforce size and competencies to support high quality care. The primary objective of this study is the creation of a simulation model that will inform service and workforce planning to meet health and social care needs associated with frailty.

Methods: The study will use a System Dynamics design to develop and test the simulation model.

Work packages comprise a scoping review, gathering of public and professional perspectives on service provision via a survey and stakeholder engagement activities, and analysis of linked health and social care data, all of which inform the simulation modelling work package and development of a workforce planning toolkit.

Timelines for delivery: The scoping review will be completed in year 1. Routine health and social care data specification and extraction will occur in year 1, as will service mapping and classification and survey preparation. Survey data collection and analysis will occur in year 2. Simulation modelling will commence in year 2, with validation, sensitivity analyses and scenario modelling in year 3.

Development of workforce guidelines and toolkit will occur in year 3 Stakeholder engagement, including patient public involvement, will run throughout the study, reviewing study results and informing development of the other work packages.

Anticipated impact & dissemination: This study will provide new, direct evidence about the impact of frailty on health and social care workforce requirements within the ageing population The improved understanding of workforce requirements offered by this study will inform workforce planning for frailty services across health and social care, ensuring future benefit for patients through provision of timely and appropriate care and a workforce planning toolkit to support local decision-making.

• Study Type: Observational
• Enrollment (Estimated): 50000

Contacts and Locations

Study Locations

• United Kingdom
  • Southampton, United Kingdom
    • University of Southampton

Participation Criteria

Eligibility Criteria

• Ages Eligible for Study: Adult; Older Adult
• Accepts Healthy Volunteers: No

• Sampling Method: Non-Probability Sample

Study Population

Adults age 50 and above

Description

Eligibility:

• Age 50yrs and above,
• contributing data to the North West London NHS Integrated Care System database

Exclusion:

*Age below 50yrs

Study Plan

How is the study designed?

Number of groups / cohorts

1

Cohorts and Interventions

Group / Cohort
Frailty in Older people; Older people, 50 and above.

What is the study measuring?

Primary Outcome Measures

Outcome Measure	Measure Description	Time Frame
Service use (for cohort analysis)	Use of primary, secondary, community, health and social care services	2015-2022

Secondary Outcome Measures

Outcome Measure	Measure Description	Time Frame
Workforce provision of services to Adults living with Frailty	Information from cohort analysis, health and social care professionals survey and scoping review.	2015-2022

Collaborators and Investigators

• Sponsor: University of Southampton
• Collaborators: Tameside Hospital NHS Foundation Trust; Bournemouth University; Southern Health NHS Foundation Trust
• Investigators: Principal Investigator: Bronagh M Walsh/Professor, PhD, University of Southampton

Publications and helpful links

Helpful Links

• Funder website

Study record dates

Study Major Dates

• Study Start (Actual): November 1, 2022
• Primary Completion (Estimated): October 31, 2025
• Study Completion (Estimated): October 31, 2025

Study Registration Dates

• First Submitted: July 18, 2023
• First Submitted That Met QC Criteria: July 18, 2023
• First Posted (Actual): July 27, 2023

Study Record Updates

• Last Update Posted (Actual): May 4, 2025
• Last Update Submitted That Met QC Criteria: May 1, 2025
• Last Verified: May 1, 2025

More Information

Terms related to this study

• Keywords: Planning for Frailty; Health and Social Care Workforce Organisation; Social care Workforce; Simulation Modelling; Health Workforce
• Additional Relevant MeSH Terms: Pathologic Processes; Frailty
• Other Study ID Numbers: 71937

Plan for Individual participant data (IPD)

• Plan to Share Individual Participant Data (IPD)?: YES
• IPD Plan Description: Data dictionary; variables; types of data
• IPD Sharing Time Frame: Protocol - during study period Results and data - end of 2025
• IPD Sharing Access Criteria: Research Report to funder Published Papers
• IPD Sharing Supporting Information Type: STUDY_PROTOCOL; CSR

Drug and device information, study documents

• Studies a U.S. FDA-regulated drug product: No
• Studies a U.S. FDA-regulated device product: No
• product manufactured in and exported from the U.S.: No