Predicting Post-Cardiac Surgery Acute Kidney Disease: A Machine Learning Approach

March 15, 2026 updated by: China National Center for Cardiovascular Diseases

Development and Validation of a Machine Learning-Based Risk Prediction Model for Acute Kidney Disease After Cardiac Surgery

Renal injury after cardiac surgery is one of the common complications with high incidence rate, high risk of death and progression to chronic kidney disease (CKD). Previous evaluations of perioperative renal function mainly focused on acute kidney injury (AKI) related to cardiac surgery within seven days after surgery. The newly proposed concept of acute kidney disease (AKD) in recent years refers to acute or subacute kidney injury lasting seven to ninety days. Research has found that AKD can occur after AKI or in patients without AKI, and the two are both related and independent of each other, possibly indicating different subtypes of kidney injury. AKD is not uncommon and is a more significant predictor of mortality and end-stage kidney disease (ESKD). Therefore, AKD may be an important window for identifying and managing high-risk patients after cardiac surgery. Due to limited research on AKD after cardiac surgery, the risk factors for AKD are currently unclear, and there are no clinically practical and effective risk stratification tools available. This study aims to establish a multimodal perioperative data platform through a retrospective cohort, and use machine learning methods to construct a risk prediction model for AKD after cardiac surgery. The accuracy and stability of the model will be validated in a prospective study cohort, and an online risk prediction and clinical decision-making tool will be developed to help clinicians quickly conduct personalized risk assessments and optimize diagnosis and treatment strategies, thereby improving patient prognosis and reducing medical costs.

Study Overview

Status

Not yet recruiting

Conditions

Study Type

Observational

Enrollment (Estimated)

820

Contacts and Locations

This section provides the contact details for those conducting the study, and information on where this study is being conducted.

Study Contact

Study Locations

  • China
      • Beijing, China
        • National Center for Cardiovascular Diseases
        • Contact:

Participation Criteria

Researchers look for people who fit a certain description, called eligibility criteria. Some examples of these criteria are a person's general health condition or prior treatments.

Eligibility Criteria

Ages Eligible for Study

  • Adult
  • Older Adult

Accepts Healthy Volunteers

No

Sampling Method

Non-Probability Sample

Study Population

Inpatients undergoing cardiac surgery at Fuwai Hospital

Description

Inclusion Criteria:

  • Age ≥ 18 years;
  • Undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting and/or heart valve surgery, with or without aortic surgery;
  • Baseline serum creatinine level < 354 umol/L;
  • Informed consent obtained.

Exclusion Criteria:

  • Emergency surgery;
  • Multiple surgeries or reoperation;
  • End-stage kidney disease (ESKD), renal replacement therapy, or kidney transplantation;
  • Occurrence of AKI within 1 week before surgery or unresolved AKI;
  • Death within 1 week after surgery.

Study Plan

This section provides details of the study plan, including how the study is designed and what the study is measuring.

How is the study designed?

Design Details

Cohorts and Interventions

Group / Cohort
Adult patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting and/or heart valve surgery

What is the study measuring?

Primary Outcome Measures

Outcome Measure
Time Frame
Number of Participants with acute kidney disease after cardiac surgery Assessed by KDIGO guideline
Time Frame: within 90 days after cardiac surgery
within 90 days after cardiac surgery
acute kidney disease after cardiac surgery
Time Frame: within 90 days after cardiac surgery
within 90 days after cardiac surgery

Collaborators and Investigators

This is where you will find people and organizations involved with this study.

Sponsor

China National Center for Cardiovascular Diseases

Study record dates

These dates track the progress of study record and summary results submissions to ClinicalTrials.gov. Study records and reported results are reviewed by the National Library of Medicine (NLM) to make sure they meet specific quality control standards before being posted on the public website.

Study Major Dates

Study Start (Estimated)

March 1, 2026

Primary Completion (Estimated)

June 30, 2027

Study Completion (Estimated)

June 30, 2027

Study Registration Dates

First Submitted

March 15, 2026

First Submitted That Met QC Criteria

March 15, 2026

First Posted (Actual)

March 19, 2026

Study Record Updates

Last Update Posted (Actual)

March 19, 2026

Last Update Submitted That Met QC Criteria

March 15, 2026

Last Verified

February 1, 2026

More Information

Terms related to this study

Other Study ID Numbers

  • 2025-I2M-C&T-B-027

Plan for Individual participant data (IPD)

Plan to Share Individual Participant Data (IPD)?

NO

Drug and device information, study documents

Studies a U.S. FDA-regulated drug product

No

Studies a U.S. FDA-regulated device product

No

This information was retrieved directly from the website clinicaltrials.gov without any changes. If you have any requests to change, remove or update your study details, please contact register@clinicaltrials.gov. As soon as a change is implemented on clinicaltrials.gov, this will be updated automatically on our website as well.

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