Postoperative Infectious Complications Calculator for Elderly Patients

Postoperative Infectious Complications Calculator for Elderly Patients--A Derivation and External Validation of Prediction Models Based on Two Centers Large Sample

The investigators established a first-ever convenient scoring system for clinicians to assess the risk of Postoperative infectious complications (PICs) for elderly patients. Our scoring system can aid in the early detection of potential risks for postoperative infections. Higher-score patients were more likely to experience postoperative infections.

Study Overview

• Status: Completed
• Conditions: Postoperative Infection; Geriatrics; Prediction

Detailed Description

Background:

Postoperative infectious complications (PICs) are related to increased morbidity, mortality, and costs, especially in elderly patients. However, published prediction models of PICs are rarely based on elderly patients.

Objective:

The study wanted to identify practical and valuable variables that could be used to predict postoperative infections and establish a convenient scoring system for clinicians to assess the risk of such conditions in elderly patients.

Methods： Data from 2 population-based cohorts of elderly patients undergoing non-cardiac and non-neurology surgery were used to derive and validate multivariable logistic regression models. The risk prediction models were derived from 37230 patients hospitalized in the First Medical Center of the Chinese PLA General Hospital (January 2004 - December 2019). The risk prediction models were externally validated with data from a cohort of 10252 patients hospitalized in Henan Provincial People's Hospital (November 2014 to May 2022).

• Study Type: Observational
• Enrollment (Actual): 37230

Contacts and Locations

Study Locations

• China
  • Beijing
    • Beijing, Beijing, China, 100853
      • Depatment of Anesthesiology, The First Medical Center Affiliation: Chinese PLA General Hospital

Participation Criteria

Eligibility Criteria

• Ages Eligible for Study: Older Adult
• Accepts Healthy Volunteers: No

• Sampling Method: Non-Probability Sample

Study Population

A total of 37230 participants were included in the derivation and internal validation cohorts (29785 in the derivation cohort and 7445 in the internal validation cohort).

Description

Inclusion Criteria:

1. age ≥ 65 years and
2. patients undergoing surgery with anesthesia.

Exclusion Criteria:

1. patients undergoing neurosurgery or cardiac surgery,
2. preoperative infectious diseases, and
3. patients with ≥50% of data missing.

Study Plan

How is the study designed?

Number of groups / cohorts

2

Cohorts and Interventions

Group / Cohort
derivation cohort; 29785 in the derivation cohort
internal validation cohort; 7445 in the internal validation cohort

What is the study measuring?

Primary Outcome Measures

Outcome Measure	Measure Description	Time Frame
Postoperative Infectious Complications Calculator for Elderly Patients	A Derivation and External Validation of Prediction Models based on two centers large sample	January 2004 - December 2019

Collaborators and Investigators

• Sponsor: Weidong Mi
• Investigators: Study Chair: Weidong Mi, Ph.D., Depatment of Anesthesiology, The First Medical Center Affiliation: Chinese PLA General Hospital

Study record dates

Study Major Dates

• Study Start (Actual): June 1, 2021
• Primary Completion (Actual): June 30, 2023
• Study Completion (Actual): September 30, 2023

Study Registration Dates

• First Submitted: February 11, 2024
• First Submitted That Met QC Criteria: February 16, 2024
• First Posted (Actual): February 20, 2024

Study Record Updates

• Last Update Posted (Actual): March 19, 2024
• Last Update Submitted That Met QC Criteria: March 17, 2024
• Last Verified: March 1, 2024

More Information

Terms related to this study

• Keywords: elderly patients; prediction model; retrospective study; postoperative infectious complications; calculator
• Additional Relevant MeSH Terms: Pathologic Processes; Disease Attributes; Infections; Communicable Diseases
• Other Study ID Numbers: PLAGH-AOC-L02

Plan for Individual participant data (IPD)

• Plan to Share Individual Participant Data (IPD)?: NO

Drug and device information, study documents

• Studies a U.S. FDA-regulated drug product: No
• Studies a U.S. FDA-regulated device product: No