PrognostICate- Study:Prognostication of ICU- and Ventilator- Days Over the Next Years Until 2040 (PrognostICate)

Prognostication of ICU- and Ventilator- Days Over the Next Years Until 2040 Using Statistical Projection Models and Retrospective Data From International Databases From 2005-2023 (PrognostICate- Study).

The Objective of this retrospective multicenter- study is to forecast Intensive Care Unit (ICU) length of stay (ICULOS) and length of mechanical ventilation (LOMV) in ICU patients of different groups (regarding gender, age group, medical vs surgical admission) worldwide for the next years up to the year of 2040 using statistical forecasting models and historical, national and international ICU databases and population databases.

Study Overview

• Status: Recruiting
• Conditions: ICU Admission
• Intervention / Treatment: Other: Intensive Care Unit (ICU) treatment

Detailed Description

Adequate resource allocation in Intensive Care Medicine is especially challenging due to limited resources and increasing demands for ICU capacities due to an aging population and medical advances. Several studies in the past were trying to predict ICULOS using different models. The Objective and aim of our retrospective multicenter study are to forecast ICU length of stay (ICULOS) and length of mechanical ventilation (LOMV) in ICU patients of different groups (regarding gender, age group, medical vs surgical admission) worldwide for the next years up to the year of 2040 using statistical forecasting models.

To achieve this objective, historical ICU data spanning from 2005 to 2023 is collected from international ICU databases worldwide as well as population data from national and international databases and employ different statistical forecasting models (ARIMA-Model (Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average), logistic regression, Poisson Regression and ETS (Exponential smoothing)) to make these predictions. The Validity of the 4 different models is assessed with out-of-time-cross validity by splitting the data in 2 subsets for generation and testing of the model in a ratio of approximately 75:25 of the dataset. The most valid model of the 4 different models will be chosen. The statistical analysis follows he guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER Statement) von Stevens et al. from the year 2016.

The ultimate goal of this project is to provide valuable insights to healthcare system decision-makers worldwide regarding future requirements of ICU beds and ventilator capacities. With this insight we want to enable healthcare- system decision makers worldwide to proactively anticipate and allocate appropriate ICU resources for the future.

• Study Type: Observational
• Enrollment (Estimated): 10000000

Contacts and Locations

• Study Contact: Name: Sandra Emily Stoll, DR. AP; Phone Number: +491735697566; Email: sandraemilystoll@googlemail.com
• Study Contact Backup: Name: Julius D Neubert; Phone Number: +4915752988296; Email: jneuber2@smail.uni-koeln.de

Study Locations

• Germany
  • NRW
    • Cologne, NRW, Germany, 50937
      • Recruiting
      • Department of Anesthesiology and Intensive Care Medicine
      • Contact: Sandra E Stoll, MD; Phone Number: +491735697566; Email: sandraemilystoll@googlemail.com
      • Contact: Sandra E Stoll, MD; Phone Number: Stoll +491735697566; Email: sandra-emily.stoll@gmx.de
      • Principal Investigator: Sandra E Stoll, MD

Participation Criteria

Eligibility Criteria

• Ages Eligible for Study: Child; Adult; Older Adult
• Accepts Healthy Volunteers: No

• Sampling Method: Probability Sample

Study Population

ICU patients worldwide

Description

Inclusion Criteria:

• All patients admitted to an ICU between the years 2005-2023

Exclusion Criteria:

• Patients without ICU admission or ICU admission < 4 hours

Study Plan

How is the study designed?

Number of groups / cohorts

1

Cohorts and Interventions

Group / Cohort	Intervention / Treatment
ICU patients; All ICU patients in different countries worldwide from 2005-2023	Other: Intensive Care Unit (ICU) treatment; ICU treatment; Other Names: ICU treatment

What is the study measuring?

Primary Outcome Measures

Outcome Measure	Measure Description	Time Frame
Length of mechanical ventilation	Forecasting mechanical ventilation for the next 16 years	2024-2040
Length of ICU stay	Forecasting ICU stay for the next 16 years	2024-2040

Collaborators and Investigators

• Sponsor: University Hospital of Cologne
• Collaborators: Albert Einstein College of Medicine; Monash University; The Alfred; Johann Wolfgang Goethe University Hospital

Study record dates

Study Major Dates

• Study Start (Actual): March 1, 2024
• Primary Completion (Estimated): June 1, 2025
• Study Completion (Estimated): June 1, 2025

Study Registration Dates

• First Submitted: February 24, 2024
• First Submitted That Met QC Criteria: February 24, 2024
• First Posted (Actual): March 1, 2024

Study Record Updates

• Last Update Posted (Actual): July 23, 2024
• Last Update Submitted That Met QC Criteria: July 19, 2024
• Last Verified: July 1, 2024

More Information

Terms related to this study

• Keywords: Length of mechanical ventilation; Length of ICU stay
• Other Study ID Numbers: 23-1096-retro

Plan for Individual participant data (IPD)

• Plan to Share Individual Participant Data (IPD)?: NO

Drug and device information, study documents

• Studies a U.S. FDA-regulated drug product: No
• Studies a U.S. FDA-regulated device product: No