Probabilistic Risk Modeling for Disorder Post Traumatic Stress (PTSD) After the Attacks in Paris In November 2015 (BV13)

Definition of a Probabilistic Model of the Evolution of an Acute Stress Disorder (ASD ) to a Posttraumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD): an Analytical Prospective Cohort Study of Patients Directly Involved in Attacks Terrorists of 13 November 2015

The scientific approach of this project proposes to build a cohort of "psychological injuries" post-attack of 13 November 2015. This is called patients "involved", ie patients who directly witnessed the events and having the most either came under automatic gunfire or were close to an explosion, whether or not physically injured.

The main objective is to define and validate a model of transition from acute stress disorder (ASD) to posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) for better detection of the risk of unfavorable and thus better patient supported.

The first step is to determine independent risk factors found in analytic prospective cohort study.

Bayesian models are well suited to exercise because they can integrate (i) the context related to the patient, (ii) the context related to the trauma itself, and (iii) the immediate reactions and long-term to the latter . They are particularly suited to understanding the brain disordered by saying down information (prior probability) wrong by improper memory of the traumatic event. The confrontation of these descending information and perceived bottom-information could be partly responsible for the symptoms of PTSD.

Once validated, the model will characterize the individual level the most at risk of unfavorable patients (calculating a probability of developing PTSD) and to assess the epidemiological impact on long-term cohort of event considered.

These determinations are necessary prerequisites to optimize the means of support for these current and future casualties.

The investigators main objective is to define a Bayesian model describing a resilient functioning facing a trauma which also allows to describe a possible evolution of the ASD to PTSD by an error.

The state of PTSD or not will be determined by the PCL-S scale.

Study Overview

• Status: Unknown
• Conditions: Stress Disorders, Post-Traumatic

Detailed Description

cohort tracking study

• Study Type: Observational
• Enrollment (Anticipated): 100

Participation Criteria

Eligibility Criteria

• Ages Eligible for Study: 18 years and older (Adult, Older Adult)
• Accepts Healthy Volunteers: Yes
• Genders Eligible for Study: All

• Sampling Method: Probability Sample

Study Population

a cohort of "psychological injuries" post-attack of 13 November 2015. This is called patients "involved", ie patients who directly witnessed the events and having the most either came under automatic gunfire or were close to an explosion, whether or not physically injured.

Description

Inclusion Criteria:

• patients who directly witnessed the events and having the most either came under automatic gunfire or were close to an explosion, whether or not physically injured

Exclusion Criteria:

• persons not physically present on the premises at the time of the attacks.
• Inability to understand or read French.
• Persons unable to express personal consent under whose major legal or private protection of liberty by judicial or administrative decision , or hospital emergency or without their consent

Study Plan

How is the study designed?

What is the study measuring?

Primary Outcome Measures

Outcome Measure	Measure Description	Time Frame
Post traumatic disorder check list	PTSD diagnose	6 months after trauma

Secondary Outcome Measures

Outcome Measure	Measure Description	Time Frame
Hamilton depression scale	personality	6 months after trauma

Collaborators and Investigators

• Sponsor: University Hospital, Tours
• Collaborators: Assistance Publique - Hôpitaux de Paris; University of Lorraine

Study record dates

Study Major Dates

• Study Start: July 1, 2016
• Primary Completion (Actual): November 1, 2016
• Study Completion (Anticipated): July 1, 2018

Study Registration Dates

• First Submitted: July 3, 2016
• First Submitted That Met QC Criteria: July 29, 2016
• First Posted (Estimate): August 3, 2016

Study Record Updates

• Last Update Posted (Actual): June 26, 2017
• Last Update Submitted That Met QC Criteria: June 22, 2017
• Last Verified: June 1, 2017

More Information

Terms related to this study

• Additional Relevant MeSH Terms: Mental Disorders; Pathologic Processes; Trauma and Stressor Related Disorders; Disease; Stress Disorders, Traumatic; Stress Disorders, Post-Traumatic
• Other Study ID Numbers: 2016-A00162-49; SC16-WEH/BV13 (Registry Identifier: Ref study CPP)

Plan for Individual participant data (IPD)

• Plan to Share Individual Participant Data (IPD)?: UNDECIDED