Risk Prediction Model for Older Adults Undergoing Noncardiac Surgery

Development of a Surgical Risk Prediction Model for Older Adults Undergoing Major Noncardiac Surgery: A Prospective Cohort Study

This prospective observational study aims to develop and evaluate predictive models for postoperative complications in patients aged 65 years or older scheduled for elective major surgery. The investigators will recruit 520 eligible patients visiting the preoperative assessment clinic.

The study involves the prospective collection of comprehensive preoperative data using specific validated tools:

• Physical Activity: Assessed using the Saltin-Grimby Physical Activity Scale (SGPAS) to categorize physical activity intensity.
• Nutritional Risk: Screened using the Nutritional Risk Screening 2002 (NRS-2002) tool.
• Psychological Status: Evaluated for anxiety and depression using the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS).
• Body Composition: Measured using a portable bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) device (BWA2.0S, InBody) to assess muscle mass, body fat/water, and phase angle.
• Physical Function: Assessed via the short physical performance battery (SPPB) using electronic measurement devices (AndanteFit, DYPHI) to calculate frailty index and physical age.

The primary endpoint is the occurrence and severity of postoperative complications within 30 days, evaluated using both the Clavien-Dindo Classification and the Comprehensive Complication Index (CCI). Using the collected dataset, the investigators will develop prediction models using both classical regression analysis and machine learning algorithms to compare their predictive performance.

Study Overview

• Status: Not yet recruiting
• Conditions: Postoperative Complications; Major Noncardiac Surgery; Geriatric Anesthesia
• Intervention / Treatment: Other: Preoperative assessment

• Study Type: Observational
• Enrollment (Estimated): 520

Contacts and Locations

Study Locations

• South Korea
  • Jongno-gu
    • Seoul, Jongno-gu, South Korea, 03080
      • Seoul National University Hospital
      • Contact: Soohyuk Yoon, MD; Phone Number: +82-2-2072-2467; Email: yoonsh3152@snu.ac.kr

Participation Criteria

Eligibility Criteria

• Ages Eligible for Study: Older Adult
• Accepts Healthy Volunteers: No

• Sampling Method: Non-Probability Sample

Study Population

Patients aged 65 years or older scheduled for elective major noncardiac surgery. Participants in this cohort will undergo a comprehensive preoperative assessments including physical activity, nutritional risk, psychological status, short physical performance battery, and bioelectrical impedance analysis at the preoperative assessment clinic.

Description

Inclusion Criteria:

• Patients aged 65 years or older scheduled for elective surgery who visit the preoperative assessment clinic.
• Patients scheduled for major non-cardiac surgery.
• Patients who voluntarily provide written informed consent.

Exclusion Criteria:

• Patients unable to communicate.
• Patients unable to complete questionnaires or perform physical function tests.
• Patients with implanted electronic medical devices, such as cardiac pacemakers or implantable patient monitoring devices.
• Patients whose scheduled surgery is cancelled.
• Patients with underlying medical or psychiatric conditions that may affect the study outcomes.
• Any other reason that, in the opinion of the investigator, makes the patient unsuitable for participation.

Study Plan

How is the study designed?

Number of groups / cohorts

1

Cohorts and Interventions

Group / Cohort	Intervention / Treatment
Prospective Surgical Cohort; All patients will receive the standard of care and undergo surgical procedures as determined by their primary care team and surgeons.	Other: Preoperative assessment; As this is a prospective observational study, no experimental clinical interventions or treatments are administered to the participants. Participants will undergo comprehensive preoperative assessments including physical activity, nutritional risk screening, psychological status, short physical performance battery, and bioelectrical impedance analysis.

What is the study measuring?

Primary Outcome Measures

Outcome Measure	Measure Description	Time Frame
Postoperative complications	30-day postoperative complications (evaluated by Clavien-Dindo classification and the Comprehensive Complication Index)	Postoperative 30 days

Secondary Outcome Measures

Outcome Measure	Time Frame
Length of hospital stay	Postoperative 30 days

Collaborators and Investigators

• Sponsor: Seoul National University Hospital

Study record dates

Study Major Dates

• Study Start (Estimated): February 19, 2026
• Primary Completion (Estimated): January 31, 2027
• Study Completion (Estimated): February 28, 2027

Study Registration Dates

• First Submitted: February 8, 2026
• First Submitted That Met QC Criteria: February 8, 2026
• First Posted (Actual): February 13, 2026

Study Record Updates

• Last Update Posted (Actual): February 13, 2026
• Last Update Submitted That Met QC Criteria: February 8, 2026
• Last Verified: February 1, 2026

More Information

Terms related to this study

• Additional Relevant MeSH Terms: Pathologic Processes; Pathological Conditions, Signs and Symptoms; Postoperative Complications
• Other Study ID Numbers: PREPASS

Plan for Individual participant data (IPD)

• Plan to Share Individual Participant Data (IPD)?: UNDECIDED