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Early Prediction of ICU Hypotension Using Machine Learning (ICU-HypoAI)

31. maj 2026 opdateret af: Serkan TELLİ, Kutahya Health Sciences University

A Prospective Observational Machine Learning Study for the Early Prediction of Hypotension in Adult Intensive Care Unit Patients

This prospective observational study aims to develop and internally validate a machine learning model for the early prediction of hypotension in adult intensive care unit patients. The model will use routinely collected non-invasive vital signs, heart rate, medication-dose records, and fluid-balance data recorded during standard ICU care. No intervention will be assigned by the study, and patient management will not be changed according to the model output. The primary aim is to predict hypotension 30 minutes before its occurrence; shorter 5- and 15-minute prediction horizons will also be evaluated.

Studieoversigt

Status

Rekruttering

Betingelser

Intervention / Behandling

Detaljeret beskrivelse

Hypotension is a frequent hemodynamic event in critically ill patients and may occur before clear clinical deterioration is recognized. Earlier identification of patients at risk may support closer clinical attention and more timely evaluation. This study is designed as a prospective, observational machine learning study in adult intensive care unit patients.

Routinely available ICU data will be collected at five-minute intervals, including systolic, mean, and diastolic non-invasive blood pressure, heart rate, medication-dose entries, and fluid-balance records. These data will be used to construct time-dependent features reflecting recent values, short-term changes, and rolling trends. Hypotension will be defined at each five-minute time point as systolic blood pressure below 90 mmHg, mean arterial pressure below 65 mmHg, or diastolic blood pressure below 60 mmHg.

The primary prediction horizon will be 30 minutes. Separate secondary analyses will evaluate 5- and 15-minute prediction horizons. A gradient-boosted decision-tree model will be developed and internally validated using patient-level data partitioning to avoid assigning observations from the same patient to both training and validation sets. Model performance will be assessed using discrimination, classification performance, and calibration measures. Feature-importance analyses will be used to describe the variables contributing to model predictions.

The study is observational. No treatment, medication, device, alarm, or clinical decision will be assigned by the study protocol. The prediction model will be developed and evaluated using collected data and will not be used to guide real-time patient management during the study period.

Undersøgelsestype

Observationel

Tilmelding (Anslået)

100

Kontakter og lokationer

Dette afsnit indeholder kontaktoplysninger for dem, der udfører undersøgelsen, og oplysninger om, hvor denne undersøgelse udføres.

Studiekontakt

Studiesteder

Deltagelseskriterier

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Berettigelseskriterier

Aldre berettiget til at studere

  • Voksen
  • Ældre voksen

Tager imod sunde frivillige

Ingen

Prøveudtagningsmetode

Ikke-sandsynlighedsprøve

Studiebefolkning

The study population will consist of consecutive adult patients monitored in the adult intensive care unit of Kutahya Health Sciences University during the study period. Routine clinical monitoring data, including non-invasive blood pressure, heart rate, medication-dose records, and fluid-balance data, will be used for machine learning model development and internal validation. No treatment or intervention will be assigned by the study protocol.

Beskrivelse

Inclusion Criteria:

Age 18 years or older Admission to the adult intensive care unit during the study period Length of stay in the intensive care unit of at least 24 hours Availability of routine intensive care unit monitoring data Availability of non-invasive blood pressure and heart rate measurements recorded during ICU monitoring Availability of medication-dose and/or fluid-balance records during ICU monitoring

Exclusion Criteria:

Age younger than 18 years Length of stay in the intensive care unit of less than 24 hours Absence of usable blood pressure monitoring data Records with irrecoverable timestamp inconsistencies Insufficient monitoring duration for feature construction and future outcome labeling

Studieplan

Dette afsnit indeholder detaljer om studieplanen, herunder hvordan undersøgelsen er designet, og hvad undersøgelsen måler.

Hvordan er undersøgelsen tilrettelagt?

Design detaljer

Kohorter og interventioner

Gruppe / kohorte
Intervention / Behandling
Adult Intensive Care Unit Patients
Adult patients admitted to the intensive care unit who are monitored during routine clinical care. Routinely collected non-invasive blood pressure, heart rate, medication-dose, and fluid-balance data will be used for machine learning model development and internal validation. No treatment or clinical intervention will be assigned by the study protocol.
Andet: Routine ICU Data Collection
Routinely collected intensive care unit data, including non-invasive blood pressure, heart rate, medication-dose records, and fluid-balance data, will be recorded and analyzed for development and internal validation of a machine learning model. The study does not assign any treatment, medication, device, alarm, or clinical decision.

Hvad måler undersøgelsen?

Primære resultatmål

Resultatmål
Foranstaltningsbeskrivelse
Tidsramme
Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve for 30-Minute Hypotension Prediction
Tidsramme: From enrollment through the end of ICU monitoring, up to 4 months
Discriminative performance of the machine learning model for predicting hypotension 30 minutes before its occurrence. Hypotension will be defined as systolic blood pressure below 90 mmHg, mean arterial pressure below 65 mmHg, or diastolic blood pressure below 60 mmHg at a five-minute observation point.
From enrollment through the end of ICU monitoring, up to 4 months

Sekundære resultatmål

Resultatmål
Foranstaltningsbeskrivelse
Tidsramme
Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve for 5- and 15-Minute Hypotension Prediction
Tidsramme: From enrollment through the end of ICU monitoring, up to 4 months
Discriminative performance of separate machine learning models for predicting hypotension at 5-minute and 15-minute prediction horizons.
From enrollment through the end of ICU monitoring, up to 4 months
Classification Performance of the Hypotension Prediction Model
Tidsramme: From enrollment through the end of ICU monitoring, up to 4 months
Classification performance of the machine learning model will be assessed using sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and F1 score at predefined classification thresholds.
From enrollment through the end of ICU monitoring, up to 4 months

Samarbejdspartnere og efterforskere

Det er her, du vil finde personer og organisationer, der er involveret i denne undersøgelse.

Sponsor

Kutahya Health Sciences University

Datoer for undersøgelser

Disse datoer sporer fremskridtene for indsendelser af undersøgelsesrekord og resumeresultater til ClinicalTrials.gov. Studieregistreringer og rapporterede resultater gennemgås af National Library of Medicine (NLM) for at sikre, at de opfylder specifikke kvalitetskontrolstandarder, før de offentliggøres på den offentlige hjemmeside.

Studer store datoer

Studiestart (Faktiske)

15. marts 2026

Primær færdiggørelse (Anslået)

30. juni 2026

Studieafslutning (Anslået)

15. juli 2026

Datoer for studieregistrering

Først indsendt

31. maj 2026

Først indsendt, der opfyldte QC-kriterier

31. maj 2026

Først opslået (Faktiske)

4. juni 2026

Opdateringer af undersøgelsesjournaler

Sidste opdatering sendt (Faktiske)

4. juni 2026

Sidste opdatering indsendt, der opfyldte kvalitetskontrolkriterier

31. maj 2026

Sidst verificeret

1. maj 2026

Mere information

Begreber relateret til denne undersøgelse

Nøgleord

Yderligere relevante MeSH-vilkår

Andre undersøgelses-id-numre

  • 2026/03-15

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Kliniske forsøg med Hypotension

Kliniske forsøg med Routine ICU Data Collection

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Betingelser

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Sponsor / samarbejdspartnere

Placeringer

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