Data Mining of Population Health-sub-health-disease Based on Dynamic System Theory

January 24, 2026 updated by: Lv, Han, Beijing Friendship Hospital
This study aims to explore the dynamic evolution patterns of population health, sub-health, and disease states through dynamic system theory and big data mining methods, providing scientific evidence for personalized prevention and health management.

Study Overview

Status

Status

Indicates the current recruitment status or the expanded access status.
Active, not recruiting

Conditions

Conditions

The disease, disorder, syndrome, illness, or injury that is being studied. On ClinicalTrials.gov, conditions may also include other health-related issues, such as lifespan, quality of life, and health risks.

Intervention / Treatment

Intervention / Treatment

A process or action that is the focus of a clinical study. Interventions include drugs, medical devices, procedures, vaccines, and other products that are either investigational or already available. Interventions can also include noninvasive approaches, such as education or modifying diet and exercise.

Detailed Description

Specific objectives include: (1) Identifying individual health, sub-health, and disease states using unsupervised system modeling techniques, while investigating their mutual transformation pathways. (2) Identifying key indicators determining state transitions, clarifying their mechanisms and interactions. (3) Developing dynamic system models to simulate state transition trajectories under multivariate influences, predicting individual probabilities of progression from health to sub-health or disease. (4) Creating interpretable health prediction tools based on modeling results to support precision interventions. The ultimate goal is to establish a scientifically validated yet implementable health state modeling system, offering quantifiable tools for early intervention and personalized health management to reduce chronic disease incidence and healthcare burdens.

Study Type

Study Type

Describes the nature of a clinical study. Study types include interventional studies (also called clinical trials), observational studies (including patient registries), and expanded access.
Observational

Enrollment (Estimated)

Enrollment

The number of participants in a clinical study. The "anticipated" enrollment is the target number of participants that the researchers need for the study.
380000

Contacts and Locations

This section provides the contact details for those conducting the study, and information on where this study is being conducted.

Study Locations

  • China
    • Beijing Municipality
      • Beijing, Beijing Municipality, China, 100050
        • Beijing Friendship Hospital, Capital Medical University

Participation Criteria

Researchers look for people who fit a certain description, called eligibility criteria. Some examples of these criteria are a person's general health condition or prior treatments.

Eligibility Criteria

Eligibility Criteria

The key requirements that people who want to participate in a clinical study must meet or the characteristics they must have. Eligibility criteria consist of both inclusion criteria (which are required for a person to participate in the study) and exclusion criteria (which prevent a person from participating). Types of eligibility criteria include whether a study accepts healthy volunteers, has age or age group requirements, or is limited by sex.

Ages Eligible for Study

  • Child
  • Adult
  • Older Adult

Accepts Healthy Volunteers

Yes

Sampling Method

Probability Sample

Study Population

Health Data Science Database of Beijing Friendship Hospital

Description

Inclusion Criteria:

  • Participants must have completed at least two consecutive physical examinations at the Physical Examination Center of Beijing Friendship Hospital, Capital Medical University, between June 2007 and August 2025, with a minimum interval of 6 months between adjacent records.
  • Data records should be relatively complete, with missing rates for key research variables (e.g., core biochemical indicators, demographic information, and essential questionnaire items) ≤30%.
  • Participants must have no prior history of severe organic diseases prior to their first study inclusion (as documented in medical records, primarily including: malignant tumors (non-curable/end-stage), severe cardiac insufficiency (NYHA Class III-IV), end-stage renal disease (CKD Stage 5), decompensated cirrhosis, or significant functional impairment caused by sequelae of severe cerebrovascular disease).

Exclusion Criteria:

- Individuals with a severe lack of basic data (such as unique identification, key demographic information, and core indicators of detection) or who cannot be effectively anonymized.

Study Plan

This section provides details of the study plan, including how the study is designed and what the study is measuring.

How is the study designed?

Design Details

Cohorts and Interventions

Group / Cohort

Group / Cohort

A group or subgroup of participants in an observational study that is assessed for biomedical or health outcomes.
Intervention / Treatment

Intervention / Treatment

A process or action that is the focus of a clinical study. Interventions include drugs, medical devices, procedures, vaccines, and other products that are either investigational or already available. Interventions can also include noninvasive approaches, such as education or modifying diet and exercise.
Health Data Science Database of Beijing Friendship Hospital
  1. Participants must have completed at least two consecutive physical examinations at the Physical Examination Center of Beijing Friendship Hospital, Capital Medical University, between June 2007 and August 2025, with a minimum interval of 6 months between adjacent records.
  2. Data records should be relatively complete, with missing rates for key research variables (e.g., core biochemical indicators, demographic information, and essential questionnaire items) ≤30%.
  3. Participants must have no prior history of severe organic diseases prior to their first study inclusion (as documented in medical records, primarily including: malignant tumors (non-curable/end-stage), severe cardiac insufficiency (NYHA Class III-IV), end-stage renal disease (CKD Stage 5), decompensated cirrhosis, or significant functional impairment caused by sequelae of severe cerebrovascular disease).
Other: No intervention will be applied.
This is an observational study.

What is the study measuring?

Primary Outcome Measures

Primary Outcome Measures

In a clinical study's protocol, the planned outcome measure that is the most important for evaluating the effect of an intervention/treatment. Most clinical studies have one primary outcome measure, but some have more than one.
Outcome Measure
Measure Description
Time Frame
Discriminative Accuracy for Next Diagnosis
Time Frame: Evaluate on an internal validation dataset. This dataset contains individual historical data up to January 1, 2018, based on which the model predicts the next diagnostic event that will occur immediately. Calculate AUC for diseases with over 1000 ICD-10
Age- and Sex-stratified Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve, AUC
Evaluate on an internal validation dataset. This dataset contains individual historical data up to January 1, 2018, based on which the model predicts the next diagnostic event that will occur immediately. Calculate AUC for diseases with over 1000 ICD-10
Long-term Predictive Accuracy
Time Frame: Evaluate the AUC values of disease occurrence in the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 5th, and 10th year after prediction on the internal validation dataset.
AUC stratified by age and gender, assessing the risk of disease occurrence within specific time intervals (1 year, 2 years,..., 10 years) after prediction. This indicator measures the decay of a model's predictive ability over time.
Evaluate the AUC values of disease occurrence in the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 5th, and 10th year after prediction on the internal validation dataset.
Trajectory-level Predictive Accuracy
Time Frame: On the validation subset, evaluate the accuracy of disease event predictions for each year from the simulation starting point (60 years old) to the following 1 to 20 years.
The proportion of correctly predicted disease events. In each simulated future year, match the generated disease events with the actual disease events that occur in individuals, and calculate the success rate (%) of the matching.
On the validation subset, evaluate the accuracy of disease event predictions for each year from the simulation starting point (60 years old) to the following 1 to 20 years.

Collaborators and Investigators

This is where you will find people and organizations involved with this study.

Sponsor

Sponsor

The organization or person who initiates the study and who has authority and control over the study.
Beijing Friendship Hospital

Study record dates

These dates track the progress of study record and summary results submissions to ClinicalTrials.gov. Study records and reported results are reviewed by the National Library of Medicine (NLM) to make sure they meet specific quality control standards before being posted on the public website.

Study Major Dates

Study Start (Actual)

Study Start

The actual date on which the first participant was enrolled in a clinical study. The "anticipated" study start date is the date that the researchers think will be the study start date.
September 1, 2025

Primary Completion (Estimated)

Primary Completion

The date on which the last participant in a clinical study was examined or received an intervention to collect final data for the primary outcome measure. Whether the clinical study ended according to the protocol or was terminated does not affect this date. For clinical studies with more than one primary outcome measure with different completion dates, this term refers to the date on which data collection is completed for all the primary outcome measures. The "anticipated" primary completion date is the date that the researchers think will be the primary completion date for the study.
August 31, 2028

Study Completion (Estimated)

Study Completion

The date on which the last participant in a clinical study was examined or received an intervention/treatment to collect final data for the primary outcome measures, secondary outcome measures, and adverse events (that is, the last participant's last visit). The "anticipated" study completion date is the date that the researchers think will be the study completion date.
August 31, 2030

Study Registration Dates

First Submitted

First Submitted

The date on which the study sponsor or investigator first submitted a study record to ClinicalTrials.gov. There is typically a delay of a few days between the first submitted date and the record's availability on ClinicalTrials.gov (the first posted date).
December 9, 2025

First Submitted That Met QC Criteria

First Submitted That Met QC Criteria

The date on which the study sponsor or investigator first submits a study record that is consistent with National Library of Medicine (NLM) quality control (QC) review criteria. The sponsor or investigator may need to revise and submit a study record one or more times before NLM's QC review criteria are met. It is the responsibility of the sponsor or investigator to ensure that the study record is consistent with the NLM QC review criteria.
January 24, 2026

First Posted (Actual)

First Posted

The date on which the study record was first available on ClinicalTrials.gov after National Library of Medicine (NLM) quality control (QC) review has concluded. There is typically a delay of a few days between the date the study sponsor or investigator submitted the study record and the first posted date.
January 29, 2026

Study Record Updates

Last Update Posted (Actual)

Last Update Posted

The most recent date on which changes to a study record were made available on ClinicalTrials.gov. There may be a delay between when the changes were submitted to ClinicalTrials.gov by the study's sponsor or investigator (the last update submitted date) and the last update posted date.
January 29, 2026

Last Update Submitted That Met QC Criteria

Last Update Submitted That Met QC Criteria

The most recent date on which the study sponsor or investigator submitted changes to a study record that are consistent with National Library of Medicine (NLM) quality control (QC) review criteria. It is the responsibility of the sponsor or investigator to ensure that the study record is consistent with the NLM QC review criteria.
January 24, 2026

Last Verified

Last Verified

The most recent date on which the study sponsor or investigator confirmed the information about a clinical study on ClinicalTrials.gov as accurate and current. If a study with a recruitment status of recruiting; not yet recruiting; or active, not recruiting has not been confirmed within the past 2 years, the study's recruitment status is shown as unknown.
January 1, 2026

More Information

Terms related to this study

Other Study ID Numbers

Other Study ID Numbers

Identifiers or ID numbers other than the NCT number that are assigned to a clinical study by the study's sponsor, funders, or others. These numbers may include unique identifiers from other trial registries and National Institutes of Health grant numbers.
  • 202511

Plan for Individual participant data (IPD)

Plan to Share Individual Participant Data (IPD)?

UNDECIDED

Drug and device information, study documents

Studies a U.S. FDA-regulated drug product

No

Studies a U.S. FDA-regulated device product

No

This information was retrieved directly from the website clinicaltrials.gov without any changes. If you have any requests to change, remove or update your study details, please contact register@clinicaltrials.gov. As soon as a change is implemented on clinicaltrials.gov, this will be updated automatically on our website as well.

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