Predictive Tracking of Patient Flow in the Emergency Services During the Virus Winter Epidemics (PREDAFLU)

Epidemics and infectious diseases in general, punctuate much of the activity of an emergency service. The impact of winter infections is particularly important to vulnerable populations such as infant during bronchiolitis epidemics and the elderly during seasonal influenza. Each year, these epidemic phenomena lead to disorganization of emergency services and healthcare teams by lack of anticipation and organizational measures in particular to manage the approval of emergency services for the most vulnerable populations requiring hospitalization.

For 2 years, the pediatric emergency department of St Etienne University Hospital has a decision support tool for the periods of winter epidemics. Through a retrospective analysis of Passages of Emergency summary, this tool provides an estimate of infants with bronchiolitis flow day to day, and the availability in real time of an abnormally high flow of patients to pediatric emergencies. These data can help to affirm that the epidemic begins in this hospital.

Study Overview

• Status: Completed
• Conditions: Child; Acute Renal Failure; Elderly; Bronchiolitis; Disease Outbreaks
• Intervention / Treatment: Other: data retrieval

• Study Type: Observational
• Enrollment (Actual): 760000

Contacts and Locations

• Study Contact: Name: Olivier MORY, MD; Phone Number: (0)4 77 82 81 34; Email: olivier.mory@chu-st-etienne.fr
• Study Contact Backup: Name: Béatrice DEYGAS; Phone Number: (0)4 77 12 76 55; Email: beatrice.deygas@chu-st-etienne.fr

Study Locations

• France
  • Grenoble, France, 38000
    • CHU de Grenoble (adult emergency service)
  • Grenoble, France, 38000
    • CHU de Grenoble (pediatric service)
  • Lyon, France, 69000
    • CHU de Lyon (adult emergency service)
  • Lyon, France, 69000
    • CHU de Lyon (laboratory of virology)
  • Lyon, France, 69000
    • CHU de Lyon HFME (pediatric service)
  • Saint Etienne, France, 42055
    • CHU de Saint Etienne (adult emergency service)
  • Saint Etienne, France, 42055
    • CHU de Saint Etienne (Pediatric service)
  • Valence, France, 26000
    • CH de Valence (adult emergency service)
  • Valence, France, 26000
    • CH de Valence (pediatric service)
  • Villefranche Sur Saone, France, 69655
    • CH de Villefranche (adult emergency service)
  • Villefranche Sur Saone, France, 69655
    • CH de Villefranche (pediatric service)

Participation Criteria

Eligibility Criteria

• Ages Eligible for Study: 1 month and older (Child, Adult, Older Adult)
• Accepts Healthy Volunteers: No

• Sampling Method: Non-Probability Sample

Study Population

child < 24 months with bronchiolitis or elderly < 60 years with acute renal failure

Description

Inclusion Criteria:

• child < 24 months with bronchiolitis
• elderly < 60 years with acute renal failure or breathing problem

Exclusion Criteria:

• refuse of transmission of their data

Study Plan

How is the study designed?

Design Details

• Observational Models: Cohort
• Time Perspectives: Prospective

Number of groups / cohorts

1

Cohorts and Interventions

Group / Cohort	Intervention / Treatment
patients < 24 months or 60 years with bronchiolitis or ARF; ARF = Acute Renal Failure	Other: data retrieval; data retrieval with the Hospital Information System

What is the study measuring?

Primary Outcome Measures

Outcome Measure	Measure Description	Time Frame
build a predictive tool	a tool with different levels of alerts of the influx of people aged to emergencies during winter epidemics. Variables in the model : activity database in emergency services, computer data, virology database and average length of stay.	at inclusion

Secondary Outcome Measures

Outcome Measure	Time Frame
Difference between the estimated date and the effective date of the activity peak on the average length of stay of patients in the hospital of Saint Etienne	at inclusion
Difference between the estimated date and the effective date of the activity peak on the average length of stay of patients in the other hospitals	at inclusion
Comparison virological databases with clinical diagnosis of patients	at inclusion
Percentage of elderly staying more than 10 hours in the emergency services.	at inclusion

Collaborators and Investigators

• Sponsor: Centre Hospitalier Universitaire de Saint Etienne
• Investigators: Principal Investigator: Olivier MORY, MD, Centre Hospitalier Universitaire de Saint Etienne

Study record dates

Study Major Dates

• Study Start (Actual): September 1, 2016
• Primary Completion (Actual): December 31, 2023
• Study Completion (Actual): December 31, 2023

Study Registration Dates

• First Submitted: August 1, 2016
• First Submitted That Met QC Criteria: August 3, 2016
• First Posted (Estimated): August 8, 2016

Study Record Updates

• Last Update Posted (Actual): March 22, 2024
• Last Update Submitted That Met QC Criteria: March 21, 2024
• Last Verified: March 1, 2024

More Information

Terms related to this study

• Additional Relevant MeSH Terms: Pathologic Processes; Infections; Respiratory Tract Infections; Respiratory Tract Diseases; Lung Diseases; Kidney Diseases; Urologic Diseases; Disease Attributes; Bronchial Diseases; Renal Insufficiency; Lung Diseases, Obstructive; Bronchitis; Female Urogenital Diseases; Female Urogenital Diseases and Pregnancy Complications; Urogenital Diseases; Male Urogenital Diseases; Emergencies; Acute Kidney Injury; Bronchiolitis
• Other Study ID Numbers: 1508191; 1969303 v 0 (Other Identifier: CNIL)

Plan for Individual participant data (IPD)

• Plan to Share Individual Participant Data (IPD)?: NO