- ICH GCP
- US Clinical Trials Registry
- Clinical Trial NCT06140823
Prospective Validation of Liver Cancer Risk Computation (LIRIC) Models
Prospective Validation of Liver Cancer Risk Computation (LIRIC) Models on Multicenter EHR Data
The goal of this prospective observational cohort study is to validate previously developed Hepatocellular Carcinoma (HCC) risk prediction algorithms, the Liver Risk Computation (LIRIC) models, which are based on electronic health records.
The main questions it aims to answer are:
- Will our retrospectively developed general population LIRIC models, developed on routine EHR data, perform similarly when prospectively validated, and reliably and accurately predict HCC in real-time?
- What is the average time from model deployment and risk prediction, to the date of HCC development and what is the stage of HCC at diagnosis?
The risk model will be deployed on data from individuals eligible for the study. Each individual will be assigned a risk score and tracked over time to assess the model's discriminatory performance and calibration.
Study Overview
Status
Conditions
Detailed Description
Study Type
Enrollment (Actual)
Contacts and Locations
Study Locations
-
-
Massachusetts
-
Boston, Massachusetts, United States, 02115
- Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center
-
-
Participation Criteria
Eligibility Criteria
Ages Eligible for Study
- Adult
- Older Adult
Accepts Healthy Volunteers
Sampling Method
Study Population
Description
We will utilize the following criteria for all 3 models:
Inclusion criteria:
- Male and females age ≥40 years from all US HCOs available on the platform
- at least at least 2 clinical encounters to the HCO, within the last year, before the study start date
Exclusion Criteria:
- Personal history of HCC or current HCC (ICD-9: 155.0; ICD-10: C22.0)
- Age below 40. The same dataset will be utilized for the non-cirrhosis validation, with exclusion of all cases with cirrhosis (ICD-9: 571.2, 571.5; ICD-10: K70, K70.3, K70.30, K70.31, K74, K74.0, K74.6, K74.60, K74.69). For the cirrhosis validation, we will include only patients with the above cirrhosis codes.
Study Plan
How is the study designed?
Design Details
Cohorts and Interventions
Group / Cohort |
Intervention / Treatment |
---|---|
prospective general population cohort
Males and females age >= 40 years, without a personal history of HCC or current HCC and at least two clinical visits to their HCO, within the last year, before the study start date.
|
A neural network model (LIRIC-NN) and a logistic regression model (LIRIC-LR) that use routinely collected EHR data to stratify individuals into HCC risk groups for the general population
|
Prospective cirrhosis population cohort
Males and females age >= 40 years, with liver cirrhosis and without a personal history of HCC or current HCC, that have at least two clinical visits to their HCO, within the last year, before the study start date.
|
A neural network model (LIRIC-NN) and a logistic regression model (LIRIC-LR) that use routinely collected EHR data to stratify individuals into HCC risk groups for the population with liver cirrhosis
|
Prospective no_cirrhosis population cohort
Males and females age >= 40 years, without a personal history of HCC or current HCC and without a diagnosis of liver cirrhosis, that have at least two clinical visits to their HCO, within the last year, before the study start date.
|
neural network model (LIRIC-NN) and a logistic regression model (LIRIC-LR) that use routinely collected EHR data to stratify individuals into HCC risk groups for the population without liver cirrhosis
|
What is the study measuring?
Primary Outcome Measures
Outcome Measure |
Measure Description |
Time Frame |
---|---|---|
Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of LIRIC for all groups stratified
Time Frame: 6 months from index date, at 1 year, 2 years and 3 years
|
To assess the discriminatory performance of LIRIC for prospective identification of high-risk individuals for HCC development.
ROCs and AUROC numbers will be calculated for the whole population and groups stratified by age, sex, race, and geographical location.
|
6 months from index date, at 1 year, 2 years and 3 years
|
Calibration of LIRIC for all groups stratified
Time Frame: 6 months from index date, at 1 year, 2 years and 3 years
|
To assess how well the risk prediction by LIRIC aligns with observed risk without recalibration.
Calibration plots will be created for the whole population and groups stratified by age, sex, race, and geographical location.
|
6 months from index date, at 1 year, 2 years and 3 years
|
Performance metrics for LIRIC model risk quantiles
Time Frame: 6 months from index date, at 1 year, 2 years and 3 years
|
To evaluate the sensitivity, specificity, number of individuals/number of HCC cases, PPV, NNS in each predicted risk quantile for multiple risk thresholds
|
6 months from index date, at 1 year, 2 years and 3 years
|
Secondary Outcome Measures
Outcome Measure |
Measure Description |
Time Frame |
---|---|---|
Timing of incident HCC occurrence
Time Frame: 6 months from index date, at 1 year, 2 years and 3 years
|
To evaluate how long in advance before HCC occurrence should be expected for LIRIC models to make high-risk predictions based on different thresholds for high-risk.
Distribution plots of the date of HCC incidence for multiple risk thresholds will be created.
|
6 months from index date, at 1 year, 2 years and 3 years
|
Tumor stage at HCC diagnosis
Time Frame: 6 months from index date, at 1 year, 2 years and 3 years
|
TNM staging at HCC diagnosis
|
6 months from index date, at 1 year, 2 years and 3 years
|
Collaborators and Investigators
Study record dates
Study Major Dates
Study Start (Actual)
Primary Completion (Estimated)
Study Completion (Estimated)
Study Registration Dates
First Submitted
First Submitted That Met QC Criteria
First Posted (Actual)
Study Record Updates
Last Update Posted (Actual)
Last Update Submitted That Met QC Criteria
Last Verified
More Information
Terms related to this study
Additional Relevant MeSH Terms
Other Study ID Numbers
- Nov2023Trial
Drug and device information, study documents
Studies a U.S. FDA-regulated drug product
Studies a U.S. FDA-regulated device product
This information was retrieved directly from the website clinicaltrials.gov without any changes. If you have any requests to change, remove or update your study details, please contact register@clinicaltrials.gov. As soon as a change is implemented on clinicaltrials.gov, this will be updated automatically on our website as well.
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